Heading into his third collegiate season, Arch Manning has yet to take the field as Texas' full-time starting quarterback. Yet, questions about the phenom's future in the NFL seem to follow him everywhere.
Ever since the superstar passer announced his commitment to the Longhorns in 2022, Manning’s destiny as a future franchise player in the pros has virtually been written in stone. It would take a major turn of events for Manning not to wind up as a high-ranking draft pick at some point. But that's the biggest question: When exactly will Manning take his talents to the NFL?
Projections on the young Manning's future are already being debated, with some NFL fans eager for their teams to draft him, while others think he'll follow his family's history by starting multiple seasons in college. What has Manning himself said of his draft decision beyond 2025, and how are analysts preparing for his NFL future?
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Here's what to know about Manning's potential long-term future at Texas and whether he'll head to the NFL sooner rather than later.
MORE: Revisiting why Arch Manning chose Texas over Alabama, Georgia and more
Will Arch Manning stay at Texas in 2026?
With Arch Manning finally entering his first year at Texas as QB1, the simplest answer to his long-term outlook is that it's very much up in the air.
In a recent interview with "Texas Monthly," Arch's grandfather, Archie Manning, said he believes his grandson will be back with the Longhorns in 2026 versus declaring for the NFL draft after his redshirt sophomore season. That potential decision is one that would line up with the rest of the Manning family; Peyton Manning spent four years at Tennessee before heading to the NFL in 1998, while Eli Manning played five years at Ole Miss, including a redshirt year, before making his leap to the pros in 2004.
“Arch isn’t going to do that,” Archie Manning told Texas Monthly when asked whether his grandson would declare for the 2026 draft. “He’ll be at Texas.”
However, it also seemed that Archie didn't exactly consult with Arch before making those comments. When asked about his future on Aug. 19, the star Texas quarterback responded that he doesn't "know where [Archie] got that from."
"He texted me and apologized about that," Arch said. "I’m really just taking it day by day right now.”
#Texas QB Arch Manning asked about Archie Manning’s comments about Arch for sure being at Texas for two years. @ontexasfootball pic.twitter.com/p1b8Rc9CXu
— CJ Vogel (@CJVogel_OTF) August 19, 2025
Given Arch's talent and potential, Texas fans will surely be hoping he sticks around for 2026 and potentially beyond then, while NFL fans will also be holding out hope for him to declare for the 2026 draft. For now though, there's no reason to expect a clear-cut answer from Manning on his long-term future as he focuses on competing for a national title with the Longhorns.
Once Texas' 2025 season comes to an end, the quarterback will likely make his intentions much clearer.
MORE: What to know about Arch Manning's father, Cooper
When is Arch Manning eligible for the NFL Draft?
Manning first becomes eligible for the NFL Draft in 2026, following the upcoming 2025 season.
Because he wasn't yet three years removed from high school, Manning was not eligible for last April's 2025 NFL Draft — and likely wouldn't have declared anyway, having thrown just 95 career passes at Texas through two years. And just because he's eligible for the 2026 cycle also does not mean Manning has to enter that draft. He has three years of collegiate eligibility remaining, meaning Manning could wait to enter his name in the 2027 or 2028 NFL Drafts as well.
2026 may mark the first chance for Manning to enter the draft, but that will also have to be a decision he makes. If not, he could continue to develop at Texas as a multi-year starter ahead of his jump to the NFL.
Arch Manning NFL Draft projection
With the 2025 NFL Draft having come and gone, some analysts and sites already have their eyes on the 2026 cycle. It's fair to say that despite Manning's draft decision still being unknown, the consensus among those scouting the 2026 class is that Texas' quarterback will be a star in the pros.
NFL Mock Draft Database's early consensus 2026 rankings have Manning as the No. 2 overall prospect for the class, trailing only Clemson quarterback Cade Klubnik.
Additionally, ESPN analyst Field Yates released an early 2026 mock draft on Aug. 20, which predicted the Browns to select Manning at No. 1 overall next April. Yates did also note that he's including Manning "for now," with the remaining possibility that he stays in college for longer than the 2025 season.