Imagine the scene for what could have been at State Farm Stadium on Thursday.
Lane Kiffin emerges from the tunnel – complete with white visor, matching pullover and gray pants. He sprints toward the sideline and puts his headset on in anticipation for a College Football Playoff semifinal against No. 10 Miami. Kiffin would lead Ole Miss – the one-loss team – with the SEC national championship hopes in hand.
College football fans would have loved him for it, perhaps more than the rest of the remaining field. More than Miami, which has rekindled the nostalgia of its dominance from the 1980s and 1990s with a fast and physical team under Mario Cristobal. More than No. 5. Oregon, which is looking to make its third appearance in a national championship game – this time under coach Dan Lanning. Dare we say more than No. 1 Indiana – the all-time turnaround story under coach Curt Cignetti – who has made the Hoosiers the overwhelming favorite to win the national title? Maybe not that far, but that point stands.
This is what could have been had Kiffin stayed at Ole Miss. Yet Kiffin accepted the LSU job on Nov. 30. At the time, Kiffin told ESPN.com's Marty Smith there was an attempt to work out a way to make a playoff run work with Ole Miss athletic director Keith Carter through the process. Carter, however, denied that request.
"I just totally wish the team the best of luck, wish that I was coaching," Kiffin said. "I just hope they play really well and go win the national championship."
Well, as it turns out …
Ole Miss is playing really well. Pete Golding – who served as Kiffin's defensive coordinator – has held the team together through a 41-10 victory against No. 11 Tulane in the first round and a 39-34 heart-stopper over No. 3 Georgia in the Allstate Sugar Bowl. Now, the Rebels are one victory away from playing for the CFP championship at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Fla., on Jan. 19. Did Kiffin miscalculate this run before leaving for LSU?
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What if Lane Kiffin would have stayed at Ole Miss?
Rivalry Week would not have been held hostage. "Kiffin watch" overshadowed what was normally the best week of the college football regular season. Kiffin tweeted excerpts from "The Pivot Year: 365 Days To Become the Person You Truly Want To Be." Rampant speculation hijacked the "Egg Bowl" – and Kiffin confronted a podcaster on the field afterward. Kiffin became the news cycle into Sunday morning – when the decision was made. Kiffin was on a tarmac again – and this time to a chorus of boos at the airport.
Now, imagine a press conference had Kiffin announced he was staying at Ole Miss. The coach who had unceremonious exits with the Raiders in the NFL and Tennessee, USC and even Alabama as the offensive coordinator would have been universally praised. Even if Ole Miss would have lost to Georgia, Kiffin's approval rating as a coach would have been at an all-time high. He had a 55-19 record with the Rebels – the seventh-best record among major programs behind Georgia, Ohio State, Alabama, Oregon, Notre Dame and Michigan. The Ducks are the only other team still in the College Football Playoff right now among that group.
What if Ole Miss won the national championship with Kiffin as coach? Kiffin was 4-7 against top-10 teams with the Rebels. If Ole Miss burned through Georgia, No. 10 Miami and perhaps No. 1 Indiana – he would have had a life-time contract and statue in Oxford – possibly as early as this summer. Not only that, he would be running it back with Ole Miss superstar Trinidad Chambliss at QB if he is granted a sixth year by the NCAA, running back Kewan Lacy and enough returning pieces to be ranked No. 1 to start the 2026 season. It's not out of the question without Kiffin.
SN AWARDS: 2025 All-America team | Player of the Year | Coach of the Year
Should Lane Kiffin be second-guessing the move to Ole Miss?
Kiffin signed a seven-year, $91 million deal, and three of the last four coaches at LSU – Nick Saban, Les Miles and Ed Orgeron – won national championships. The conventional thinking remains that it would be easier to win a national championship with the Tigers.
Yet the 12-team College Football Playoff era has proven unconventional the last two seasons. Ohio State won the CFP as a two-loss No. 8 seed. Indiana – which has the second-lowest all-time winning percentage among Power 4 programs at.429 – is a commanding favorite. Kiffin could have easily thrived in this environment at Ole Miss.
Instead, he's become the poster coach for NCAA calendar change. Golding has thrived in Kiffin's place, and the what-to-do with a handful of assistant coaches who followed Kiffin to LSU but are helping Ole Miss through the CFP run has become this weeks' nauseating topic of discussion. Offensive coordinator Charlie Weis Jr. Is staying at Ole Miss before leaving for LSU. Our take? These coaches should be able to stay – almost required – to stay through the playoff run. Otherwise, what are we doing?
Kiffin has tweeted multiple times in support of Chambliss with an emoji of a Trinidad flag after the performance against Georgia and for a series of tweets making the case for a sixth year of eligibility. We can't criticize that. It's genuine, especially knowing Chambliss said he will stay at Ole Miss if he is cleared.
Kiffin also has made a series of public appearances ranging from the Tigers' loss to Houston in the Kinder's Texas Bowl to a LSU women's basketball game where he was holding hands with women's basketball coach Kim Mulkey while Ole Miss was playing in the Sugar Bowl against Georgia. It's not Brian Kelly-level cringe in Baton Rouge – at least not yet.
Where will Kiffin be during the Fiesta Bowl on Thursday? Working the transfer portal is the likely answer.
How will Lane Kiffin's reputation change at LSU?
The "Portal King" has work to do. LSU has 25 players in the transfer portal, and only six players have committed to the Tigers. Kiffin does have a loaded recruiting class coming in, and quarterback is the next priority. Kiffin was seen with former Arizona State quarterback Sam Leavitt on Tuesday. He is also reportedly trying to poach Washington QB Demond Williams after Williams signed an NIL deal with Washington. The Tigers need a quarterback to jump-start an offense that ranked 103rd in the FBS with 22.8 points per game this season.
Ole Miss' run in the College Football Playoff also raises the stakes for Kiffin at LSU. Will he take the Tigers to a CFP semifinal? That's not a guarantee, but it will be the expectation from the fan base. We mentioned the three national championships, but the Tigers have made the CFP one time since 2014. Granted, that was arguably the greatest college football team of all time, but this program wants immediate success with Kiffin's arrival – and the 2026 schedules open with Clemson and Louisiana Tech before that trip to Ole MIss on Sept. 19.
At that point, you have to wonder what Kiffin will be thinking. Would it have been better to be on the Ole Miss sideline at that point? Would the Rebels wait to celebrate their CFP achievements until that moment if they win it – right in front of the former coach who left? Will that thought be a second guess of what could have been?
This is the line between hero and villain that Kiffin has walked his entire coaching career. He will always have fans, especially because of his social-media presence. He's worked his way into the top 10 coaches in the FBS – we had him at No. 10 this season – and he'll win at LSU. He just has to win more than he did at Ole Miss.
Given what the Rebels are doing right now, that won't be easy, and that question is going to follow him for the rest of his career until the Tigers match this run.