College football bowl projections for Week 14: Will Penn State, Kansas State and Florida State make postseason?

Bill Bender

College football bowl projections for Week 14: Will Penn State, Kansas State and Florida State make postseason?  image

Two Preseason AP Top 25 teams are fighting bowl eligibility this week – and a third notable Power 4 program also will be fighting for the postseason on Rivalry Week. 

Penn State – which opened the season at No. 2 – plays Rutgers in a battle of 5-6 teams. The winner will make the postseason. Interim coach Terry Smith has led the Nittany Lions to back-to-back wins. 

Kansas State – which opened at No. 22 before losing the season opener in Dublin against Iowa State – also needs a win to become bowl eligible in the Big 12. The Wildcats are at Colorado. 

As of now, Florida – which opened at No. 15 and fired Billy Napier – is 3-8 and not eligible for a bowl game. The Gators, however, can prevent Florida State – which is 5-6 – from reaching the postseason. 

We have two of those three teams reaching a bowl game. 

The fourth set of College Football Playoff rankings was unveiled Tuesday. AllSportsPeople will have weekly bowl projections leading up to the unveiling of the 12-team field on Dec. 7. 

The first round of the new CFP will have one game on Friday, Dec. 19, and three on Saturday, Dec. 20. 

The quarterfinals will be played at the Cotton Bowl Classic (Dec. 31), Capital One Orange Bowl (Jan. 1), Rose Bowl Game presented by Prudential (Jan. 1) and Allstate Sugar Bowl (Jan. 1). 

The semifinals will be played at the Vrbo Fiesta Bowl (Jan. 8) and Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl (Jan. 9). The CFP national championship is Jan. 19 in Miami.

MORE: Projected College Football playoff bracket for Week 14

Here are our bowl projections for Week 14.

College football bowl predictions 2025

There are 35 bowls involving FBS teams outside the College Football Playoff this season. A look at our projections for those matchups: 

DATEBOWLWEEK 14
Dec. 13LA Bowl Hosted by GronkSan Diego State vs. Washington State
Dec. 16IS4S Salute to Veterans Bowl*Navy vs. Kansas State
Dec. 17StaffDNA Cure BowlUtah State vs. Southern Miss
Dec. 1768 Ventures BowlWestern Michigan vs. James Madison
Dec. 19Myrtle Beach BowlWestern Kentucky vs. Arkansas State
Dec. 19Union Home Mortgage Gasparilla BowlCoastal Carolina vs. Baylor
Dec. 22Famous Idaho Potato BowlToledo vs. Fresno State
Dec. 23Boca Raton BowlTexas State vs. UConn
Dec. 23R+L Carriers New Orleans BowlJacksonville State vs. Troy
Dec. 23Scooter's Coffee Frisco Bowl*Old Dominion vs. Boise State
Dec. 24Hawaii BowlNorth Texas vs. Hawaiii
Dec. 26GameAbove Sports BowlOhio vs. Nebraska
Dec. 26Rate BowlNorthwestern vs. Arizona State
Dec. 26Servpro First Responder BowlUTSA vs. TCU
Dec. 27Go Bowling Military BowlEast Carolina vs. Louisiana Tech
Dec. 27Bad Boy Mowers Pinstripe BowlPenn State vs. Duke
Dec. 27Wasabi Fenway BowlUSF vs. NC State
Dec. 27Pop-Tarts BowlArizona vs. Clemson
Dec. 27Snoop Dogg Arizona Bowl presented by Gin & JuiceCentral Michigan vs. UNLV
Dec. 27Isleta New Mexico BowlKennesaw State vs. New Mexico
Dec. 27Taxslayer Gator BowlMinnesota vs. NC State
Dec. 27Texas BowlHouston vs. SMU
Dec. 29Birmingham BowlMemphis vs. Marshall
Dec. 30Radiance Technologies Independence BowlWake Forest vs. Iowa State
Dec. 30Transperfect Music City BowlIllinois vs. Pitt
Dec. 30Valero Alamo BowlUSC vs. BYU
Dec. 31Reliaquest BowlLSU vs. Iowa
Dec. 31Tony The Tiger Sun BowlUtah vs. Louisville
Dec. 31Cheez-It Citrus BowlMichigan vs. Texas
Dec. 31SDS Distribution Las Vegas BowlMissouri vs. Cal
Jan. 2Lockheed Martin Armed Forces BowlMarshall vs. Army
Jan. 2Autozone Liberty BowlCincinnati vs. Tennessee
Jan. 2Duke's Mayo BowlVanderbilt vs. Miami, Fla.
Jan. 2DirecTV Holiday BowlWashington vs. Georgia Tech
TBDBahamas Bowl*FIU vs. Miami, Ohio

 

College Football Playoff first-round predictions 

A look at the four College Football Playoff first-round matchups for the 2025-26 season. Those first-round games will be played on campus: 

DATEBOWLMATCHUP
Dec. 19First-Round CFP gameNo. 9 Notre Dame at No. 8 Oklahoma
Dec. 20First-Round CFP gameNo. 12 Tulane at No. 5 Texas Tech
Dec. 20First-Round CFP gameNo. 10 Alabama at No. 7 Ole Miss
Dec. 20First-Round CFP gameNo. 11 Virginia at No. 6 Oregon

We have Virginia as the ACC champion, though SMU could easily fit in that spot and make the CFP for the second straight season. Tulane is our American Conference champion and would take on Texas Tech – though the Red Raiders remain a strong candidate to bump up to a No. 4 seed. Notre Dame and Alabama on the road in the first round would draw huge ratings, but both teams have the opportunity to move up. 

UPDATED SCENARIOS: ACC | Big Ten | Big 12 | SEC

College Football Playoff quarterfinal predictions

A look at the College Football Playoff quarterfinal matchups for the 2025-26 season. Those games will be played at the traditional New Year's Day Six bowl sites: 

DATEBOWLMATCHUP
Dec. 31Cotton Bowl Classic (quarterfinal)No. 4 Indiana vs. No. 5 Texas Tech
Jan. 1Capital One Orange Bowl (quarterfinal)No. 3 Georgia vs. No. 6 Oregon
Jan. 1Rose Bowl Game presented by Prudential (quarterfinal)No. 1 Ohio State vs. No. 9 Notre Dame
Jan. 1Allstate Sugar Bowl (quarterfinal)No. 2 Texas A&M vs. No. 10 Alabama

This field would be 75% teams from the Big Ten and SEC. Notre Dame is the one team we would like to see Ohio State right now. There are no changes in our quarterfinal projections this week. Indiana (11.6) and Texas Tech (12.3) still rank second and third, respectively, in scoring defense and having Red Raiders linebacker Jacob Rodriguez and Heisman contender Fernando Mendoza on the same field would be fun. It's a big week for Texas A&M, Georgia and Alabama. We'll see if those spots shuffle. Oregon – fresh off a 42-27 win against USC – is a dangerous team in this spot. 

College Football Playoff semifinal predictions

A look at the College Football Playoff semifinal matchups for the 2025-26 season. Those games will be played at the traditional New Year's Day Six bowl sites: 

DATEBOWLMATCHUP
Jan. 8Vrbo Fiesta Bowl (semifinal)No. 5 Texas Tech at No. 1 Ohio State
Jan. 9Chick-Fil-A Peach Bowl (semfiinal)No. 3 Georgia vs. No. 10 Alabama

We still like these matchups, too. The only question is whether Alabama and Georgia will play in the SEC championship game, and how that might alter their playoff paths. Ohio State and Texas Tech last played in the 2002 Pigskin Classic – a 45-21 victory for the Buckeyes that launched a national championship run. 

MORE: Updated NCAA Top 25 polls after Georgia Tech, USC losses in Week 13

College Football Playoff championship pick 

A look at the College Football Playoff championship matchup for the 2024-25 season. That game is scheduled for Monday, Jan. 19 at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Fla.

DATEBOWLMATCHUP
Jan. 19CFP National championshipNo. 1 Ohio State vs. No. 3 Georgia

This remains our national championship pick for another week. The Buckeyes and Bulldogs have combined to win three of the last four national championships and both teams have the necessary depth to make a playoff run. The Buckeyes can make a statement against Michigan in The Game. Georgia gets a Black Friday spotlight game against Georgia Tech.

Senior Writer

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