Week 10 bowl projections: Michigan, Ohio State create two-team Big Ten playoff again

Michigan and Ohio State will be in the top four of the first set of College Football Playoff rankings when they are released on Tuesday. 

That is going to happen. The Wolverines and Buckeyes are barreling toward another high-stakes showdown on Nov. 25, one that has attracted even more heat given the sign-stealing allegations into the Michigan program. Ohio State has not lost three straight games against the Wolverines since 1995-97. While that will impact the Big Ten championship, there are some clues that suggest Michigan and Ohio State will both make the CFP again. 

We think that is going to happen. Oklahoma and Texas are one loss each away from hitting that two-loss mark that keeps teams out of the CFP. The Sooners suffered a shocking 38-33 loss at Kansas in Week 9. Oklahoma visits Oklahoma State in Week 10, and the Longhorns host Kansas State. 

The Pac-12 also is showing signs of cannibalization. Washington has looked underwhelming in victories against Arizona State and Stanford, and Oregon cannot afford another loss. Could the Pac-12 do what it usually does, and knock itself out of the CFP?

Totally. That’s why - at least for now – we have Georgia playing Ohio State in the Allstate Sugar Bowl and Michigan playing Florida State in the Rose Bowl. That would be fitting considering the Buckeyes and Seminoles played in those venues in the first CFP in 2014.

MORE: Projecting the top 4 CFP teams ahead of first committee ranking  

The College Football Playoff semifinals will be on Jan. 1, 2024. Those semifinals will be played at the Rose Bowl Game in Pasadena, Calif., and the Allstate Sugar Bowl in New Orleans. Those locations were the sites of the first four-team playoff in 2014. 

The College Football Playoff championship game is on Jan. 9 at NRG Stadium in Houston. 

SN has projections for every bowl game here, and they will be updated each week for the remainder of the season: 

Week 10 college football bowl predictions 

A look at Sporting News bowl projections heading into Week 10 of the 2023 college football season: 

New Year's Day Six predictions 

Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic: Oklahoma vs. Oregon 

The Ducks look like the best one-loss team in the country under second-year coach Dan Lanning, and our guess is they rank No. 6 in the first set of rankings behind the five unbeaten Power 5 teams as a result. Quarterbacks Bo Nix (178.6) and Dillon Gabriel (169.8) both rank in the top 10 in passer efficiency, and the Ducks (45.5) and Sooners (41.9) rank in the top five in scoring offense. This would be a "take the over" type game. 

MORE: Dan Lanning speaks out against gun violence after win

Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl: Alabama vs. Penn State

The ultimate classic uniform game. This would conjure up memories of the Sugar Bowl matchups between Bear Bryant and Joe Paterno in 1975 and 1979. The Crimson Tide and Nittany Lions still have playoff aspirations, and this is the type of matchup that will commonplace in the 12-team bracket. Penn State (11.5 ppg.) and Alabama (16.5) have solid scoring defenses. 

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Capital One Orange Bowl: LSU vs. Louisville 

First-year coach Jeff Brohm still has the Cards on track to make a New Year’s Day Six Bowl, and a showcase game for running back Jawhar Jordan – who averages 7.5 yards per carry. The hope here is that Jayden Daniels – who leads the FBS in total offense at 386.8 yards per game – would play for the Tigers. Brian Kelly is still trying to push LSU to the SEC championship game, and they have a long-shot playoff path as a two-loss team. This is the more-likely scenario. 

Vrbo Fiesta Bowl: Air Force vs. Washington 

Washington – led by quarterback Michael Penix Jr. – leads the FBS in passing yards per game at 399.0. Air Force – led by Zac Larrier – leads the FBS in rushing yards at 300.4 yards per game. That contrast in styles is enough for an entertaining game, and these teams have not met since 2005. 

College Football Playoff predictions 

Rose Bowl Game: No. 2 Michigan vs. No. 3 Florida State

The Seminoles’ remaining opponents have a combined record of 16-17 – which is the worst among the five unbeaten Power 5 playoff contenders. The path is open. Michigan remains embroiled in a sign-stealing controversy, but it has not affected the product on the field at this point. The quarterback duel between J.J. McCarthy (18 TDs, 3 INTs) and Jordan Travis (18 TDs, 2 INTs) would be fantastic.  

MORE: Will Michigan be punished before end of 2023 season?

Sugar Bowl: No. 1 Georgia vs. No. 4 Ohio State 

A rematch of last year’s 42-41 CFP semifinal at the Chick-Fil-A Peach Bowl. Quarterbacks Carson Beck and Kyle McCord would be on the spot in this one, and this matchup likely would be low scoring. Marvin Harrison Jr. had five catches for 106 yards and two TDs before leaving after with an injury after a controversial hit in last year’s matchup. Would the Bulldogs be able to slow him down? 

College Football Playoff championship pick 

CFP championship game (Houston): Georgia vs. Michigan 

We would not be surprised if the committee puts Michigan at No. 1 in the first set of rankings for dramatic purposes, but the Bulldogs are still the two-time national champion. The scoring offense between the Wolverines (40.6) and Bulldogs (40.5) is almost identical. Michigan allows 5.8 points, while the Bulldogs are at 14.8 ppg. These are the only two schools that average 40-plus points and allow less than 15 points per game. That is sometimes the simplest -- and most effective -- metric.