Tulane playoff scenarios, explained: How win, loss in AAC title game would impact CFP rankings

Morgan Moriarty

Tulane playoff scenarios, explained: How win, loss in AAC title game would impact CFP rankings image

The expanded 12-team College Football Playoff field has a guaranteed spot for a Group of Five team and one team squarely in the mix for that spot is the Tulane Green Wave. 

Heading into conference championship weekend, Tulane is 10-2 on the season. The Green Wave are currently the highest-ranked non-power team in the latest CFP rankings, checking in at No. 20. 

Let's take a look at what's left for Tulane, and what it needs to do to make it into the CFP for the first time in school history. 

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Is Tulane in the College Football playoff? 

Not yet. Tulane has one game left to play, in the AAC Championship game, facing 11-1 North Texas on Friday evening. 

Tulane will play the Mean Green at home, thanks to the Green Wave earning the right to host after being ranked No. 24 in last week's CFP rankings. Tulane is a slight 2.5-point underdog. Here's how Tulane can earn a spot in the CFP.  

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Tulane playoff scenarios

Tulane wins AAC championship game

  • With a win, Tulane would earn a spot as the fifth conference champion
  • Tulane would likely be the No. 12 seed. But the Green Wave could potentially get a higher seed, depending on what happens in the ACC. 

7-5 Duke will take on Virginia in the ACC title game. If the Blue Devils were to defeat Virginia in the ACC title game, Duke would finish 8-5. That could prompt the committee to also give a bid to the Sun Belt champion, likely to be JMU.  Tulane ranked five spots higher than JMU (No. 25) in the penultimate CFP rankings.  

Tulane loses AAC championship game

  • With a loss, Tulane will miss the 2025 CFP. 
  • There's no chance for an at-large bid, especially finishing with three losses

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