SEC championship scenarios, explained: How Alabama, Ole Miss can reach 2025 title game vs. Georgia

Bill Bender

SEC championship scenarios, explained: How Alabama, Ole Miss can reach 2025 title game vs. Georgia image

The SEC Championship Game scenarios cleared up considerably on Black Friday.

With Ole Miss's win over Mississippi State and the Texas upset of undefeated Texas A&M, Georgia clinched a spot in Atlanta.

Georgia's opponent will be Alabama or Ole Miss next Saturday at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Saturday night's Iron Bowl will determine the Bulldogs' opponent.

Here is a look at where we stand after Friday's action.

MORE WEEK 14 SCENARIOS: Big Ten | ACC | Big 12 | Group of 5

SEC championship scenarios 2025

Three teams are still in the SEC championship game picture. A look at their paths to the conference championship game: 

Georgia (11-1, 7-1) 

- Georgia clinched a spot in the SEC Championship game when Texas A&M lost to Texas on Friday.

Alabama (9-2, 6-1) 

- Alabama clinches a spot with a win against Auburn.

Ole Miss (11-1, 7-1) 

- Ole Miss clinches a spot with an Auburn win over Alabama

SEC chaos scenario

There is a path where four teams could have at least one loss. Who are those teams? 

  • Texas A&M loses to Texas
  • Ole Miss beats Mississippi State 
  • Alabama beats Auburn 

If those three results happen, then the Bulldogs, Aggies, Rebels and Crimson Tide all will have one loss. If that is the case, Alabama and Georgia would likely be in the SEC championship game because of the tiebreaker involving opponents’  cumulative conference winning percentage. 

SEC tiebreaker rules for 2025 season 

The SEC will use six potential tie-breakers for the 2025 season in this order until the tie is broken: 

Step 1: Head-to-head competition: This is the easiest tie-beaker. Did Team A beat Team B? 

Step 2: Record vs. All common conference opponents.

Step 3: Record against highest (best) placed common conference opponent in the conference standings, and proceeding through the conference standings among tied teams. 

Step 4: Cumulative conference winning percentages of all conference opponents among tied teams. 

Step 5: Capped relative total scoring margin vs. All conference opponents among the tied teams. 

Step 6: Random draw.

SEC common opponents tracker for 2025

Here is a look at the common opponents for all the SEC teams with two losses or less:

OPPONENTA&MBAMAOLE MISSUGA
Alabama--W 41-35L 24-21
ArkansasW 45-42---
AuburnW 16-10Nov. 29-W 20-10
FloridaW 34-17-W 34-24W 24-20
Georgia-W 24-21L 43-35-
Kentucky--W 30-23W 35-14
LSUW 49-25W 20-9W 24-19-
Mississippi StateW 31-9-W 38-19W 41-21
MissouriW 38-17W 27-24--
Ole Miss---W 43-35
Oklahoma-L 23-21W 34-26-
South CarolinaW 31-30W 29-22W 30-14-
Tennessee-W 37-20-W 44-41
TexasL 27-17--W 35-10
Texas A&M----
Vanderbilt-W 30-14--
RECORD17-4229-2927-3427-31
%.288.500.393.465
Senior Writer

Contributing Writer