Revisiting 2025 Heisman preseason odds: How Arch Manning, Cade Klubnik and other front-runners fell apart

The Heisman Trophy is awarded every year to college football's most outstanding player. Although the award historically goes to a quarterback, playing the position is not a requirement.

Before the 2025 college football season began, there were plenty of signal-callers who were favored to win the award. But as we enter Week 12 of the season, several of the preseason favorites have fallen out of the race completely. In fact, one of the current frontrunners to win the award is Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza.

Let's take a look at how the preseason favorites have fallen and how some unexpected stars have seen their Heisman odds rise during the season.

MORE: How Texas beat out Georgia and others to land Arch Manning

Heisman preseason odds 2025

Here's a look at the preseason Heisman odds. We'll use ESPN's list of odds released on Aug. 15 for this one. 

MORE: Why Ohio State's Jeremiah Smith is allowed to wear adidas at a Nike school

Last time preseason Heisman favorite won the award

It's been over 10 years since the last time the preseason favorite won the award. In fact, the last time it happened was in 2014, with Oregon quarterback Marcus Mariota. Mariota. He had +425 odds in the preseason, right in front of Florida State quarterback Jameis Winston.

Mariota was coming off of a huge year in 2013, throwing for a career-high 3,665 yards passing with 31 touchdowns and four interceptions, adding 715 yards rushing with nine scores. The Ducks finished 11-2, capped off with an Alamo Bowl victory over Texas. 

Mariota had an even better year in 2014. He finished with an NCAA-leading 4,454 yards passing with 42 touchdowns and just four interceptions. He added 770 yards rushing with 15 touchdowns, his 57 total scores being a Pac-12 record. 

He won the Heisman Trophy that season by a mile, receiving 90.9 percent of possible points in Heisman Trophy voting, second to Ohio State's Troy Smith in 2006 (91.6).The 788 first-place votes Mariota received were the third-highest of any player in the history of Heisman voting, before Joe Burrow's 841 in 2019 dropped him to fourth. 

He led Oregon to a Pac-12 championship in 2014 and College Football Playoff berth in the four-team playoff's inaugural season. The Ducks upset Florida State 59-20 in the first round, but Oregon fell 42-20 in the national title game vs. Ohio State. 

MORE: What is former Heisman winner Johnny Manziel doing now?

Biggest Heisman fallers

Texas QB Arch Manning (+600 preseason odds)

It's hard to remember a college football player, let alone a quarterback, with as much hype surrounding him as Arch Manning. Obviously, being the nephew of Peyton and Eli Manning, as well as the grandson of Archie Manning, has a lot to do with that.

Unsurprisingly, Manning was the overwhelming Heisman favorite. But through Texas' nine games, the quarterback has struggled, throwing for just 2,123 yards with 18 touchdowns and six interceptions. He threw three picks in each of Texas' first three games and two in a bad road loss to Florida.

He also has four games with under-200 yards passing, including a season-low 132 yards with no touchdowns in Texas' 16-13 overtime win over Kentucky. He has improved in recent weeks in games against Mississippi State and Vanderbilt, throwing for a combined 674 yards with six touchdowns and zero picks. But even if he has a strong finish to the season, he's out of the Heisman race entirely.

Clemson QB Cade Klunbik (+900 preseason odds) 

The expectations for senior quarterback Cade Klubnik were quite high, coming off a 3,000-yard passing season in 2024. He also helped lead the Tigers to an ACC Championship and a CFP berth for the first time in three seasons. He was expected to have a full grasp of Garrett Riley's offensive scheme, entering year three with his offensive coordinator.

Clemson was a preseason No. 4 team but is 4-5 on the season. In the Tigers' season opener against LSU, Clemson lost 17-10 as Klubnik threw a pick. He then threw interceptions in Clemson's next three games against Troy, Georgia Tech, and Syracuse, as the Tigers lost the last two games to drop to 1-3 on the year. He has thrown for 2,136 yards with 14 touchdowns and is on pace for his least productive season at Clemson.

LSU QB Garrett Nussmeier (+900 preseason odds) 

Garrett Nussmeier had a breakout season in 2024, throwing for 4,052 yards—fifth in the country—with 29 touchdowns and 12 interceptions. It was impressive, given it was his first season as LSU's full-time starter. 

But his 2025 season, including LSU's, hasn't gone great. He's thrown for just 1,927 yards with just 12 touchdowns and five interceptions. LSU's offense has been abysmal in the red zone, tied for 96th nationally in touchdowns scored. LSU is 5-4 on the year with a 2-4 mark in SEC play, firing head coach Brian Kelly a few weeks ago. 

During LSU's 20-9 loss to Alabama—during which the Tigers had to settle for three field goals, Nussmeier was benched for backup Michael Van Buren for the second half. Signs are pointing towards Nussmeier returning to the starting lineup this week vs. Arkansas, but his season has not gone as expected, to say the least.    Ranking  zone 

Penn State QB Drew Allar (18-1 preseason odds)

Penn State's Drew Allar entered 2025 with a ton of buzz. He had strong outings during the Nittany Lions' CFP run to the semifinals, and finished with a career-high 3,327 yards passing with 24 touchdowns and eight interceptions. He was even projected as a potential No. 1 overall pick for 2025 or 2026, although he announced his return to PSU for this season. 

Allar unfortunately suffered a season-ending leg injury against Northwestern on Oct. 11. But Allar was struggling to play well even before he was ruled out for the year. He threw a game-ending interception against Oregon in overtime, and threw one in the loss to Northwestern. He threw for just 1,100 yards with only eight touchdowns and three picks through his six games, taking six sacks.  

Miami QB Carson Beck (20-1 preseason odds)

Carson Beck briefly declared for the 2025 NFL Draft before transferring to Miami for the 2025 season. Surrounded by a talented roster, he was expected to take the Canes to a CFP berth for the very first time. But Beck has struggled with turnovers and consistency for most of the 2025 season. Although Miami appears to be slightly alive in the CFP race for now, even with two losses, Beck has thrown nine interceptions already.

Two of his interceptions directly resulted in Miami's two losses—he threw one late against Louisville that sealed the Cardinals' 24-21 upset. His second interception, thrown against SMU, came in overtime, as the Mustangs had already scored a touchdown in their possession.

He is just three interceptions away from matching his career-high 12 picks thrown last season, which led the SEC.

South Carolina QB LaNorris Sellers (16-1 preseason odds)

South Carolina's LaNorris Sellers had a breakout season in 2024, throwing for 2,534 yards with 18 touchdowns and seven interceptions. He added 674 yards and seven touchdowns on the ground too, and the Gamecocks were seen as a team likely to make some noise in the SEC. 

But Norris' 2025 has been wildly inconsistent. In six of his nine games, he's been limited to under 200 yards passing, and he has just one game with more than one touchdown pass. He's also been much more limited on the ground, averaging just 1.4 yards per carry with just three rushing touchdowns on the season. South Carolina is also tied for 132nd nationally in sacks allowed, giving up 34 on the season. 

MORE: How a Chipotle employee uncovered a John Mateer injury scoop  

Biggest Heisman risers

Ohio State quarterback Julian Sayin is the current Heisman favorite, with +165 odds. Preseason contenders like Alabama's Ty Simpson and Ohio State's Jeremiah Smith are still in the mix, as well. 

But there have been a few guys that went from Heisman longshots to strong contenders this season. The biggest risers include Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza, Vanderbilt signal-caller Diego Pavia and Texas A&M's Marcel Reed. 

Indiana QB Fernando Mendoza 

• Preseason odds: 60-1
• Current odds: (+185)

Fernando Mendoza is a big reason for Indiana's success this season, as the Hoosiers are undefeated and in first place in the Big Ten. He transferred from Cal last offseason, and is on-pace for a career-best season. So far, he's thrown for 2,342 yards with 26 touchdowns—tied for first in the nation with Baylor's Sawyer Robertson. He also ranks sixth nationally in completion percentage at 71.3. 

Although he's thrown four interceptions in each of Indiana's last four games, it hasn't caused a Hoosier loss yet. He had a potential Heisman moment last week against Penn State. Facing a third-and-goal with his team down four late in the fourth quarter, he threw an incredible touchdown pass to his receiver Omar Cooper in the back of the end zone: 

THROW OF THE YEAR!
CATCH OF THE YEAR!

Indiana's Fernando Mendoza and Omar Cooper Jr. Make an unreal play for a go-ahead TD vs. Penn State with 36 seconds left.

🎥 @CFBONFOX pic.twitter.com/mX4qr3AOe1

— The Athletic (@TheAthletic) November 8, 2025

Mendoza has also been quite productive on the ground this season too, getting a career-high 240 yards rushing with five scores. Indiana looks primed for the Big Ten title game, and a huge game against the Buckeyes' talented defense could potentially win him the award. 

MORE: Inside Fernando Mendoza's 'Heisman Moment' against Penn State

Vanderbilt QB Diego Pavia 

• Preseason odds: 150-1
• Current odds: +1700

Vanderbilt's Diego Pavia burst onto the national scene last year, helped by Vanderbilt's historic upset over Alabama. He rushed for a Vanderbilt quarterback record 801 yards with eight touchdowns, adding 2,293 yards passing with 20 touchdowns and four interceptions.

But more than halfway through his 2025 season, he's already having an even better year. He leads the nation in total offensive yards (3,053) and has 21 passing touchdowns with seven on the ground. In his last two games, he's combined for 742 yards passing with six touchdowns, leading a come-from-behind victory against Auburn and nearly coming back against Texas. The 8-2 Commodores play Kentucky and Tennessee the last two weeks of the regular season. If he puts up numbers similar to those he had vs. Texas and Auburn, his odds could climb even higher. 

Texas A&M QB Marcel Reed 

• Preseason odds: 35-1
• Current odds: +800

Texas A&M is having a huge season so far, sitting at 9-0 and ranked third in the CFP. The Aggies have two SEC games remaining against South Carolina and Texas, but are currently tied for first in the conference. So it's no surprise that sophomore quarterback Marcel Reed is also having a career year. 

In just his second season as the Aggies' starter, he is fifth in the SEC in total yards, with 2,193 yards passing with 19 touchdowns and six interceptions. He's added another 378 yards with six scores on the ground, too. If the Aggies have a big showing against Texas and Reed has a huge game in the SEC title game, he could make a case to win the award.