Heisman Trophy watch: Updated odds for Fernando Mendoza, other contenders for the 2025 award

Bill Bender

Heisman Trophy watch: Updated odds for Fernando Mendoza, other candidates to win 2025 award image

TL;DR

  • Indiana QB Fernando Mendoza shows impressive "moxie" and resilience, bouncing back after fourth-quarter interceptions.
  • Mendoza is a leading Heisman Trophy contender with 30 passing touchdowns and a 73% completion rate.
  • Indiana is heading to its first Big Ten championship game, potentially facing Ohio State.
  • Mendoza's performance against tough opponents and his ability to lead game-winning drives impress analyst Trent Green.

Trent Green hasn't had a chance to meet Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza. That does not mean Green – a CBS Sports analyst who played for the Hoosiers 1989-92 – has not been watching the Indiana quarterback lead a run toward the school's first Big Ten championship appearance. 

Green confessed to watching Indiana games in different hotel rooms during his travels this season. A particular characteristic is noteworthy. 

"I like his moxie," Green told AllSportsPeople.

Green has teamed up with Caesars Sportsbook and is set to mark the commencement of sports betting in Missouri on December 1st. According to Caesars' most recent odds, Mendoza is considered the leading contender for The Heisman Trophy.

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Mendoza shares the FBS lead with 30 passing touchdowns. Indiana, ranked second at 11-0, secures its first Big Ten championship game appearance by Defeating Purdue on Friday. A matchup against Ohio State, ranked first at 11-0 and led by Quarterback Julian Sayin, who holds the third-best Heisman odds, seems likely. Mendoza, with 2,641 yards, stands fourth in the FBS for completion percentage at 73%, demonstrating impressive statistics. 

That's not the reason why Green has been impressed. 

"What jumped out to me this season – you think about the tough road games they've had – at Iowa, Oregon and Penn State ultimately ended up coming down to the final second," Green said. "In all three of those games he threw an interception in the fourth quarter … but he always came back in each one of those games and came back and threw a TD right after that which ultimately ended up winning the game."

This is true. In all three of those Big Ten road contests, Mendoza threw a fourth-quarter interception then led the go-ahead or game-winning drive in response. 

He threw a 49-yard TD pass to Elijah Sarratt with 1:28 left in a 20-15 win against Iowa on Oct. 5. Mendoza threw a game-tying pick six a week later against Oregon, but followed up with a TD pass to Sarratt which led to a 30-20 victory. Against Penn State, Mendoza hit Omar Cooper Jr. For a 7-yard TD with 36 seconds left in a dramatic 27-24 victory. It's not a Heisman moment so much as a collection. 

"That just says a lot about his ability as a QB to let that stuff go and go to the next play," Green said.

MORE: CFP forecast | Bowl projections 

In 1991, Green guided Indiana to a 7-4-1 record, with all four defeats occurring away from home against ranked opponents: No. 7 Notre Dame, No. 4 Michigan, No. 10 Iowa, and No. 19 Ohio State. Mendoza's tenure has seen the Hoosiers secure two top-10 wins over No. 9 Illinois and No. 3 Oregon. Currently, the opportunity to defeat Purdue in a rivalry matchup, followed by a potential Big Ten championship game against No. 1 Ohio State, could be a deciding factor for The Heisman Trophy.

Mendoza also is generating more than a little interest for the 2026 NFL Draft. 

"He does a lot of good things," Green said. "He's accurate. He's smart, he knows where to go with the football. Not an overly crazy strong arm, but a strong enough arm he can make all the throws." 

As part of his partnership, Green will stop at the Caesars Sportsbook at Horseshoe St. Louis, Harrah's Kansas City, and Isle of Capri Boonville on Dec. 1. Caesars' "Party Like a Caesar" promotion will give Missouri sports fans a chance to win a trip to the Super Bowl when they place a bet of $5 or more before the end of the NFL season. 

"I have a lot of ties across this state, and on Dec. 1 we're launching things," Green said. "I'm going to work across the state just to promote the day. I am just excited about the fact that sports betting is finally in Missouri." 

Here is a look at the Heisman Trophy odds and the leaderboard heading into Rivalry Week.

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Latest Heisman Trophy odds

Caesars' latest Heisman Trophy odds reveal five players with a +1300 or better chance:

PLAYERSCHOOLPOS.ODDS
Fernando MendozaIndianaQB-105
Jeremiyah LoveNotre DameRB+375
Julian SayinOhio StateQB+400
Diego PaviaVanderbiltQB+600
Marcel ReedTexas AMQB+1300

Top Heisman Trophy contenders 

As the final week of September approaches, here are the top five Heisman Trophy contenders. Four of these quarterbacks boast Heisman odds at +1000 or higher. 

  • Fernando Mendoza, QB, Indiana (-105) 

2025 stats: 2,641 yards, 73%, 30 TDs, 5 INTs 

Mendoza enters this contest after a bye. On November 15th against Wisconsin, he threw for 299 yards and four touchdowns on 22 of 24 completions. Mendoza demonstrates a mix of precision and effectiveness, having achieved five games this season with a minimum of four touchdowns and zero interceptions. His completion rate on passes exceeding 20 yards stands at a 55.6%, placing him sixth among FBS quarterbacks. Mendoza's potential for this award hinges significantly on the Big Ten championship game. Notably, Ohio State's Troy Smith was the last Big Ten recipient of the Heisman Trophy in 2006. 

  • Jeremiyah Love, RB, Notre Dame (+375) 

2025 stats: 972 yards, 73.2%, 7 TDs, 3 INTs 

Love is a late-season candidate worth watching. Is there a more exciting player in college football right now? He ranks third in the FBS in rushing yards (1,306) and rushing TDs (17), and he's done that on 7.1 yards per carry. He has 274 receiving yards and three TDs. Each week, a new highlight-reel TD pops up. A late surge – in which he averages 155.2 rushing yards in Notre Dame's last five games – has helped. Notre Dame closes the regular season with Stanford, so this is Love's last chance to impress the voters ahead of conference championship week. 

  • Julian Sayin, QB, Ohio State (+400) 

2025 stats: 2,832 yards, 79.4%, 27 TDs, 4 INTs 

Sayin tops the country in completion rate. While receivers Carnell Tate and Jeremiah Smith contribute to this achievement, it doesn't lessen Sayin's effective play as a freshman starter. PFF data shows he has 13 touchdowns and a single interception on passes thrown between 10-19 yards, an intermediate zone often challenging for young quarterbacks. Sayin could strengthen his argument against Michigan and potentially against the Hoosiers in the Big Ten championship. The situation is straightforward.

MORE: Setting the table for Rivalry Weekend

  • Diego Pavia, QB, Vanderbilt (+600) 

2025 stats: 2,924 yards, 26 TDs, 6 INTs 

Does Pavia deserve more recognition? He could guide the Commodores to 10 wins, a first for the program. Pavia is third in the FBS for total offense (325.9 ypg.), and he's arguably the most crucial player on this list for his team's performance. Vanderbilt tops the nation in yards per play. Pavia leads the SEC with a 71.8% completion rate. Over Vanderbilt's past three contests, Pavia has thrown for 408.3 yards and rushed for 67.7 yards, scoring 14 touchdowns with only one interception. Vanderbilt faces Tennessee on Saturday. 

  • Marcel Reed, QB, Texas A&M (+1300) 

2025 stats: 2,752 yards, 61.8%, 25 TDs, 8 INTs 

Reed orchestrated an unforgettable rally from a 30-3 deficit to a 31-30 win over South Carolina on November 15th, throwing for a season-best 439 yards. Reed could make a late surge if the Aggies secure the SEC championship. The spotlight will be intense during the Black Friday prime-time slot against the 17th-ranked Texas. Additionally, Reed has accumulated 395 rushing yards and six touchdowns. He's an exceptional quarterback on an undefeated squad. How much potential remains for advancement?

Heisman Trophy Ceremony Date

The Heisman Trophy presentation is scheduled for December 13, 2025, occurring one week following the conference championship contests. ESPN will broadcast the event live at 8 p.m. ET.

Senior Writer

Contributing Writer