Just a few weeks remain until the 2025 College Football Playoff first-round games kick off. Yet at least one spot in the bracket still appears fully up for grabs.
In 2024, the Group of 5 automatic bid was a fairly easy call. Boise State cruised to the playoff behind star running back Ashton Jeanty. But in 2025, the spot reserved for the highest-ranked Group of 5 conference champion has been far murkier. In each of the committee's first three rankings, they projected three different squads — Tulane, South Florida and Memphis — to be the No. 12 seed representing the Group of 5. Tulane held onto that spot in the most recent rankings.
Entering Week 14, plenty of teams can still consider themselves alive in the race for the G5 playoff spot. Conference championships will ultimately help decide which teams have a chance, but multiple schools have a path to contention, from James Madison in the Sun Belt to North Texas, Tulane and Navy in the American.
What is each top Group of 5 squad’s path to the CFP? Here’s a breakdown of the Week 14 matchup for each team, their playoff chances and the standings in the American and Sun Belt conferences.
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Group of 5 CFP scenarios 2025
Here's a look at chances, Week 14 matchup and other details for each top Group of 5 CFP contender.
James Madison (10-1, 7-0 in Sun Belt Conference)
- ESPN playoff predictor chances: 57%
It's close, but James Madison is currently viewed as the slight favorite to represent the Group of 5 in the 2025 playoff bracket, claiming the No. 12 seed. Still, the Dukes have work to do.
In Week 14, James Madison will be tasked with beating a 6-5 Coastal Carolina team if its going to remain in playoff contention, at least in the committee's eyes. One loss for any of the G5 contenders will be detrimental for playoff chances, so part of the equation remains winning out for each.
James Madison is locked into the Sun Belt title game regardless of Week 14 result, but a loss to Coastal Carolina would still virtually end its CFP chances.
The Dukes' lone loss came to a Power 4 team, Louisville, in a 28-14 Week 2 defeat. They haven't faced any other power conference squads, but have won every other game this season. JMU having one loss is what matters the most for its playoff chances; should the Dukes win out, including a Sun Belt championship, the committee will have to at least consider them as the 12th seed. From there, it's about their judgements on which American Conference champion JMU is bidding against for the playoff spot.
The most straightforward path to the CFP for James Madison is to beat Coastal Carolina, win in the Sun Belt title game, and benefit from North Texas or Tulane losses. If the Mean Green or Tulane finish the season unbeaten, things will be more neck-and-neck for the committee.
North Texas (10-1, 6-1 in American Conference)
- ESPN playoff predictor chances: 54%
North Texas is seeking its first conference title since 2004, currently with a stronger chance to make the CFP. While head coach Eric Morris is set to leave North Texas for Oklahoma State when the 2025 season ends, the Mean Green may still have some bigger noise to make.
In Week 14, the Mean Green will face a 5-6 Temple squad, a favorable matchup that could result in an 11-1 record and conference championship appearance. Because North Texas beat Navy this season, it will hold the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Midshipmen for a conference championship appearance. Still, things will be messy at the top of the American Conference one way or another, and it could come down to the CFP rankings for tiebreakers.
North Texas will be rooting for a win, then Tulane and/or Navy losses in Week 14. Should the Mean Green win the American Conference with one loss, it will be in the committee's hands to decide between them and James Madison, assuming the Dukes also win the Sun Belt. Both North Texas, the American Conference favorite, and James Madison, the Sun Belt favorite, have just one loss this season.
The simplest playoff path for North Texas is to beat Temple, make and win its conference championship opponent, and for James Madison to lose a game, ending the American vs. Sun Belt debate for the G5 spot. If the Dukes also remain unbeaten though, it will be in the committee's hands to decide between a pair of 12-1 conference championship victors.
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Tulane (9-2, 6-1 in American Conference)
ESPN playoff predictor chances: 28%
The other two teams listed face slightly tougher paths to the playoff, simply because they've already lost two games this season. In other words, they will likely need help from James Madison and/or North Texas losing a game, one way or another.
Tulane is still in the running for the playoff though, especially given the fact that the committee has shown the squad recent favor. I n the most recent CFP rankings, Tulane was ranked 24th as the projected No. 12 seed. The Green Wave will face Charlotte in Week 14, a game they virtually have to win for playoff purposes. If Tulane wins, and either Navy or North Texas lose in Week 14, the Green Wave will play in the American Conference championship and keep their playoff hopes alive.
If Tulane proceeded to win the conference title, it would have a potentially convincing argument over projected Sun Belt champ James Madison; not only do the Green Wave have Power 4 wins over Northwestern and Duke, but they would then hypothetically have beaten another top G5 contender in North Texas/Navy in the conference championship.
Put simply, if Tulane makes and wins the conference title game, it has a pretty good shot at the CFP thanks to its slightly stronger wins over JMU, despite two losses. The committee has already shown its favor for the Green Wave.
Navy (8-2, 6-1 in American Conference)
ESPN playoff predictor chances: <1%
The only other team viewed as a somewhat real threat to claim the CFP's No. 12 seed is Navy, which sits at 8-2 overall heading into Week 14. The Midshipmen will face Memphis this week and do have to face Army on Dec. 13, but that game won't have implications on the playoff race because it's after Selection Sunday.
Navy will make the American Conference championship with a Week 14 win and a loss from North Texas or Tulane. If the Midshipmen then proceed to win the conference, they still may need some help from the committee in their argument against a hypothetical 12-1 James Madison team.
Navy's Nov. 15 win over South Florida kept it alive in the playoff race. It's unlikely, but winning out (regardless of the Army game) could result in the Midshipmen having a case for the Group of 5 playoff spot.
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Which Group of 5 team would currently make the CFP?
In the most recent rankings on Tuesday, Nov. 25, the committee ranked Tulane as the No. 24 squad and the the projected No. 12 seed for the second-straight week, maintaining its status as the top G5 squad according to the committee.
The Green Wave, despite having two losses, were again given the nod over one-loss James Madison and North Texas.
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American Conference Standings
Here's a look at the top of the American Conference standings heading into Week 14. No teams have secured a spot in the conference championship yet.
| Team | Conference | Overall |
| North Texas | 6-1 | 10-1 |
| Tulane | 6-1 | 9-2 |
| Navy | 6-1 | 8-2 |
| South Florida | 5-2 | 8-3 |
| East Carolina | 5-2 | 7-4 |
Sun Belt Conference Standings
Here's a look at the top of the Sun Belt Conference standings heading into Week 14. James Madison has already secured a spot in the conference championship.
| Team | Conference | Overall |
| James Madison | 7-0 | 10-1 |
| Old Dominion | 5-2 | 8-3 |
| Coastal Carolina | 5-2 | 6-5 |
| Georgia Southern | 3-4 | 5-6 |
| Marshall | 3-4 | 5-6 |
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