Final college football bowl projections: Updated picks for CFP, every bowl game in 2025-26

Bill Bender

Final college football bowl projections: Updated picks for CFP, every bowl game in 2025-26 image

It's all about the College Football Playoff now. 

Conference championship weekend is here, meaning bowl season is next on deck. 

There are 41 bowls involving FBS teams in 2025-26. There are 80 bowl eligible teams, and Missouri State and Delaware should also get to play in the postseason. The College Football Playoff pairings will be determined Sunday December 7, and there is more than enough intrigue heading into the final week of the season.

The first round of the new CFP will have one game on Friday, Dec. 19, and three on Saturday, Dec. 20. 

The quarterfinals will be played at the Cotton Bowl Classic (Dec. 31), Capital One Orange Bowl (Jan. 1), Rose Bowl Game presented by Prudential (Jan. 1) and Allstate Sugar Bowl (Jan. 1). 

The semifinals will be played at the Vrbo Fiesta Bowl (Jan. 8) and Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl (Jan. 9). The CFP national championship is Jan. 19 in Miami.

Here are our bowl projections for championship week: 

College football bowl predictions 2025

There are 35 bowls involving FBS teams outside the College Football Playoff this season. A look at our projections for those matchups:

DATEBOWLPROJECTION
Dec. 13Bucked Up LA Bowl Hosted by GronkBoise State vs. Washington State
Dec. 16IS4S Salute to Veterans BowlUtah State vs. Miami, Ohio
Dec. 17StaffDNA Cure Bowl*Western Kentucky vs. Old Dominion
Dec. 1768 Ventures BowlWestern Michigan vs. Troy
Dec. 18X-Box Bowl*Missouri State vs. Akransas State
Dec. 19Myrtle Beach BowlCoastal Carolina vs. FIU
Dec. 19Union Home Mortgage Gasparilla BowlUTSA vs. Kansas State
Dec. 22Famous Idaho Potato BowlToledo vs. Fresno State
Dec. 23Bush's Boca Raton BowlTexas State vs. Louisiana Tech
Dec. 23New Orleans BowlJacksonville State vs. James Madison
Dec. 23Scooter's Coffee Frisco BowlSouthern Miss vs. San Diego State
Dec. 24Sheraton Hawaii Bowl*Cal vs. Hawaiii
Dec. 26GameAbove Sports BowlOhio vs. Northwestern
Dec. 26Rate BowlMinnesota vs. Arizona State
Dec. 26Servpro First Responder BowlEast Carolina vs. TCU
Dec. 27Go Bowling Military BowlNavy vs. Georgia Southern
Dec. 27Bad Boy Mowers Pinstripe BowlPenn State vs. Duke
Dec. 27Wasabi Fenway BowlUSF vs. Clemson
Dec. 27Pop-Tarts BowlArizona vs. Georgia Tech
Dec. 27Snoop Dogg Arizona Bowl presented by Gin & JuiceCentral Michigan vs. UNLV
Dec. 27Isleta New Mexico BowlKennesaw State vs. New Mexico
Dec. 27Taxslayer Gator BowlVanderbilt vs. Miami
Dec. 27Kinder's Texas BowlNorth Texas vs. Wake Forest
Dec. 29JLab Birmingham BowlMemphis vs. Louisiana
Dec. 30Radiance Technologies Independence BowlUConn vs. Iowa State
Dec. 30Liberty Mutual Music City BowlIllinois vs. Pitt
Dec. 30Valero Alamo BowlUSC vs. BYU
Dec. 31Reliaquest BowlLSU vs. Iowa
Dec. 31Tony The Tiger Sun BowlCincinnati vs. NC State
Dec. 31Cheez-It Citrus BowlMichigan vs. Texas
Dec. 31SDS Distribution Las Vegas BowlNebraska vs. Utah
Jan. 2Lockheed Martin Armed Forces BowlDelaware vs. Army
Jan. 2Autozone Liberty BowlHouston vs. Tennessee
Jan. 2Duke's Mayo BowlMissouri vs. Louisville
Jan. 2DirecTV Holiday BowlWashington vs. SMU

*Denotes accepted bowl bid

College Football Playoff first-round predictions 

A look at the four College Football Playoff first-round matchups for the 2025-26 season. Those first-round games will be played on campus:

DATEBOWLPROJECTION
Dec. 19First-Round CFP gameNo. 11 Virginia at No. 6 Ole Miss
Dec. 20First-Round CFP gameNo. 10 Alabama at No. 7 Texas A&M
Dec. 20First-Round CFP gameNo. 12 Tulane at No. 5 Oregon
Dec. 20First-Round CFP gameNo. 9 Notre Dame at No. 8 Oklahoma

Our first round assumes that Alabama drops just one spot after a loss to Georgia in the SEC championship game. Notre Dame wins the head-to-head argument with Miami, and the first round of the CFP starts at Ole Miss – where the Rebels get a home game against ACC champion Virginia to capitalize on the Lane Kiffin drama. 

MORE: 5 things to know about college football playoff bracket seeding

College Football Playoff quarterfinal predictions

A look at the College Football Playoff quarterfinal matchups for the 2025-26 season. Those games will be played at the traditional New Year's Day Six bowl sites: 

DATEBOWLPROJECTION
Dec. 31Cotton Bowl Classic (quarterfinal)No. 3 Texas Tech vs. No. 6 Ole Miss
Jan. 1Capital One Orange Bowl (quarterfinal)No. 4 Indiana vs. No. 5 Oregon
Jan. 1Rose Bowl Game presented by Prudential (quarterfinal)No. 1 Ohio State vs. No. 9 Notre Dame
Jan. 1Allstate Sugar Bowl (quarterfinal)No. 2 Georgia vs. No. 10 Alabama

Ole Miss keeps the CFP run going against Texas Tech in this scenario, and we get a rematch between Ohio State and Notre Dame in the CFP championship game. The Oregon-Indiana rematch would be a fun Orange Bowl, and Alabama-Georgia III caps the quarterfinal round. 

College Football Playoff semifinal predictions

A look at the College Football Playoff semifinal matchups for the 2025-26 season. Those games will be played at the traditional New Year's Day Six bowl sites: 

DATEBOWLPROJECTION
Jan. 8Vrbo Fiesta Bowl (semifinal)No. 2 Georgia vs. No. 3 Texas Tech
Jan. 9Chick-Fil-A Peach Bowl (semifinal)No. 1 Ohio State vs. No. 5 Oregon

Oregon-Ohio State and Texas Tech-Georgia are our pairings for the semifinals, which might be under-estimating Indiana’s ability to get to a semifinal rematch against the Buckeyes. The Big Ten championship game could sway our opinion there. It’s a blockbuster semifinal round. 

College Football Playoff championship pick 

A look at the College Football Playoff championship matchup for the 2025-26 season. That game is scheduled for Monday, Jan. 19 at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Fla.

DATEBOWLPROJECTION
Jan. 19CFP National championshipNo. 1 Ohio State vs. No. 2 Georgia

We have had this pick locked in for a few weeks now. It’s admittedly chalky, but this time the top two seeds get to the championship game. The Buckeyes have never won back-to-back national championships. Georgia would have a chance to win its third national title in five years. Kirby Smart and Ryan Day are the best two coaches in the sport right now. A rematch has been in order since the 42-41 thriller on Dec. 31, 2022.

MORE: CFB Picks, predictions for every conference championship game

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