Will the top seeds strike back in 2025?
Last year, the top four seeds in the College Football Playoff all lost in the quarterfinal round. Will the adjustment to straight seeding change that trend in 2025? We think it will.
It's a loaded quarterfinal round, too, and defense is the story. Seven of the eight remaining CFP teams rank in the top 12 in scoring defense.
No. 2 Ohio State meets No. 10 Miami in the Cotton Bowl Classic at 7:30 p.m. ET on New Year's Eve. The New Year's Day triple-header features No. 4 Texas Tech against No. 5 Oregon in the Capital Orange Bowl at 12 p.m.
The Rose Bowl Game presented by Prudential – featuring No. 1 Indiana and No. 9 Alabama – is next at 4 p.m., followed by an all-SEC Allstate Sugar Bowl matchup between No. 3 Georgia and No. 6 Ole Miss.
MORE: Ranking the eight remaining CFP teams
We think the chalk hits for the most part this time around. Here are our picks against the spread for the quarterfinal round of the College Football Playoff picks. Odds courtesy of Caesars:
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College Football Playoff picks, predictions
Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic: No. 2 Ohio State (-9.5) vs. No. 10 Miami
Wednesday, Dec. 31, 7:30 p.m., ESPN
This will bring back a flood of nostalgia from the legendary 2003 Fiesta Bowl when the Buckeyes beat the Hurricanes 31-24 in the BCS national championship game. Defense will be the story in this matchup, too.
Can Miami score enough points against an Ohio State defense that allowed 16 points or less in every game this season and features an All-American player at every level of the defense? Carson Beck has 12 TDs and one interception through a five-game winning streak. Rushing yards could be hard to come by on both sides, so the Hurricanes will have to be patient with running back Mark Fletcher Jr., who had a season-high 172 yards against Texas A&M in the first round. The Aggies had the best third-down defense in the FBS at 22.9 percent allowed – and the Buckeyes are not far behind at 29 percent.
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On the other side, how will quarterback Julian Sayin respond against a tough Miami defense led by edge rushers Rueben Bain Jr. And Akheem Mesidor? Ohio State coach Ryan Day is taking over play-calling duties with the departure of Brian Hartline, and look for him to dial up the vertical shots to Jeremiah Smith – a Miami, native — and Carnell Tate at the right times here. Against Texas, Michigan and Indiana, Sayin was 9 of 13 for 268 yards, four TDs and no interceptions on passes of 20 yards or more. A long TD to Smith early in the second half puts the Buckeyes in control.
Pick: Ohio State 27, Miami 14
Capital One Orange Bowl: No. 4 Texas Tech vs. No. 5 Oregon (-2.5)
Thursday, Jan. 1, 12 p.m., ESPN
This is the most fascinating matchup of the quarterfinal round. Texas Tech – led by unanimous All-American linebacker Jacob Rodriguez – allowed 2.3 yards per carry this season. The Red Raiders have a plus-17 turnover margin, and they forced three or more turnovers in five games this season. The only game where Texas Tech didn't force a turnover was the 26-22 loss to Arizona State on Oct. 18. Quarterback Behren Morton did not play in that game.
The Ducks had just 11 turnovers this season, which is a good sign heading into this matchup. Oregon quarterback Dante Moore is coming off a 313-yard, four-TD performance in the first round against James Madison, and he had a 61.4% completion percentage against the combination of Indiana, Iowa and Wisconsin. Will the Ducks be able to establish enough of a running game to get the big-play offense going against Texas Tech? Oregon had some breakdowns in the back seven against James Madison, and that will need to be tightened up against the Red Raiders. Utah (40.9 ppg.) Was the best offense Texas Tech saw in the regular season, and it limited the Utes to 10 points.
Dan Lanning is on the spot here against the Big 12 champions. The Ducks were 2-1 S/U and 1-2 ATS when favored by less seven points this season.
Pick: Oregon 26, Texas Tech 20
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Rose Bowl Game presented by Prudential: No. 1 Indiana (-7) vs. No. 9 Alabama
Thursday, Jan. 1, 4 p.m., ESPN
How many more times can we doubt Indiana? If the Hoosiers can break 200 yards rushing, then this game could turn into a blowout. That is the kind of attack Curt Cignetti has built around Heisman Trophy winner Fernando Mendoza. Indiana averaged 110.3 rushing yards per game in the victories against Iowa, Oregon, Penn State and Ohio State. Does Alabama have that kind of defense with Kane Wommack? The Crimson Tide allowed 200-plus rushing yards twice this season, and were 1-1 S/U in those games.
It's more about the offense around Ty Simpson and a rushing attack that has sputtered throughout the season. The Crimson Tide have 100 rushing yards or less in seven games, and they are 4-3 S/U in those games. How much pressure can Indiana – which averages 8.6 tackles for loss per game – get on Ty Simpson? The only school with more was Oklahoma – and Alabama found a way to beat the Sooners on the road. The Crimson Tide is 6-2 S/U against top-10 teams under Kalen DeBoer, so an upset is possible if Alabama avoids turnovers. Indiana is 1-2 ATS when favored by 14 points or less, and Iowa and Penn State were the games when the Hoosiers failed to cover.
Pick: Indiana 24, Alabama 23
Allstate Sugar Bowl: No. 3 Georgia (-6.5) vs. No. 6 Ole Miss
Thursday, Jan. 1, 8 p.m., ESPN
Georgia rolled up 510 yards of total offense in a 43-35 victory on Oct. 18 against Ole Miss. How will the Rebels adjust after getting just six pressures on Gunner Stockton in the first meeting? Stockton finished 26 of 31 for 289 yards and four TDs, and the Bulldogs also had 221 rushing yards on 4.5 yards per carry. Ole Miss running back Kewan Lacy – who had 31 rushing yards and two TDS in the first meeting – also is dealing with multiple injuries. According to PFF, Trinidad Chambliss was 2 of 11 passing for 56 yards on passes of 10 yards or more in the first meeting. Georgia has allowed just 11.6 points per game since that victory against the Rebels.
Ole Miss will run the ball a little better this time around, and interim coach Pete Golding has proven that Lane Kiffin's move to LSU was not a factor in the first round against Tulane. The Sugar Bowl stage raises the stakes, but we like Georgia to continue on the path toward a third national title in five seasons. Georgia was 4-1 S/U and 3-2 ATS when favored by seven points or less this season. Ole Miss is 4-3 S/U as an underdog since 2023. Is there a chance for an upset here?
Pick: Georgia 30, Ole Miss 21