Let's hope the first-round College Football Playoff games are closer this time.
Last year, first-round games were decided by an average of 19.3 points per game. Those blowouts led to wide-spread complaining, and the CFP tweaked the format by moving to a straight seeding model.
No. 9 Alabama is favored in a rematch against No. 9 Oklahoma, which opens the first round Friday at 8 p.m on ABC. No. 10 Miami takes on No. 7 Texas A&M in the noon matchup on Saturday. Those games should be close.
It really comes down to the next two matchups. Will No. 11 Tulane make it closer against No. 6 Ole Miss at 4 p.m. In a rematch from a regular-season blowout? Does No. 12 James Madison emerge as the CFP Cinderella at No. 5 Oregon?
Each week, AllSportsPeople picks college football games against the spread. Here's a look at our track record against the spread in the regular season:
Straight up: 194-57,.772
Against the spread: 118-127-6,.482
Here are our picks against the spread for the first-round College Football Playoff picks (odds according to Caesars Sportsbook).
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College Football Playoff picks, predictions for Round 1
- No. 9 Alabama (-1) at No. 8 Oklahoma
Friday, Dec. 19, 8 p.m., ABC
Alabama coach Kalen DeBoer released a statement that he was not interested in the Michigan job, which should eliminate one distraction. Will Ty Simpson be better in the rematch against the Sooners?
In Alabama's last four games, he had a 58.3% completion percentage. Oklahoma limited the Crimson Tide to an average of 75 rushing yards and forced three turnovers in each of their last two meetings. Will Oklahoma defensive tackle R Mason Thomas be back for this matchup?
John Mateer had a 58.1% completion percentage in Oklahoma's four-game winning streak to end the season. Which quarterback is more efficient without making mistakes? Alabama is 6-4 S/U on the road under DeBoer, but Simpson cleans up the turnovers and Jam Miller adds enough in the running game to pull a road upset.
Pick: Alabama 22, Oklahoma 17
- No. 10 Miami at No. 7 Texas A&M (-3.5)
Saturday, Dec. 20, 12 p.m., TNT
This should be the most-entertaining game of the first round. Marcel Reed took just 10 sacks all season. Will Miami's pass rush, led by Rueben Bain Jr. And Akheem Mesidor, force the Texas A&M quarterback into costly mistakes?
Reed did have 10 interceptions this season. Miami quarterback Carson Beck had 10 TDs and one interception in Miami's last four games. Will a Texas A&M defense led by Cashius Howell disrupt that? Miami has the offensive line built to pull this road upset, and this line has dropped a point. It's tough to pick against Texas A&M here.
The Aggies are 12-1 S/U as a home favorite under Mike Elko, but they are also 4-9 ATS in that situation. This could be a walk-off field-goal moment either way.
Pick: Texas A&M 24, Miami 21
- No. 11 Tulane at No. 6 Ole Miss (-17.5)
Saturday, Dec. 20, 4 p.m., TNT
Ole Miss beat Tulane 45-10 on Sept. 20. The Rebels had 548 total yards of offense, and built a three-score lead by halftime. Tulane quarterback Jake Retzlaff missed his first nine passes and finished 5 of 17 for 56 yards. Ole Miss quarterback Trinidad Chambliss had 307 passing yards, 112 rushing yards and two TDs in the first meeting. Kewan Lacy added 68 yards and two TDs.
If the Green Wave cannot slow down that tandem, then this will be another blowout. Of course, Lane Kiffin will not be on the sideline. Pete Golding is the new Ole Miss coach, and Jon Sumrall will leave Tulane for Florida after the CFP. Tulane is 3-3 ATS as an underdog under Sumrall. This game is a little tighter, and the Green Wave sneak in a late cover.
Pick: Ole Miss 34, Tulane 19
Troy Wayrynen/USA TODAY Network
- No. 12 James Madison at No. 5 Oregon (-21.5)
Saturday, Dec. 20, 8 p.m., ABC
James Madison coach Bob Chesney is 21-5 the last two seasons, and he will take the job at UCLA after the CFP. The Dukes had a plus-1 turnover ratio this season, and this is a game where turnovers can't happen. James Madison also has a relentless rushing attack that piled up 300-plus yards five times this year, and quarterback Alonza Barrett III (544 yards, 9 TDs) and Wayne Knight (1,263 yards, 9 TDs) lead that attack.
Oregon allowed 3.2 yards per carry this season, and linebacker Bryce Boettcher, Teitum Tuioti and Matayo Uiagalelei are at the heart of that defense. Oregon quarterback Dante Moore had 15 TDs, three INTS and a 170.4 passer rating at home this season.
The Ducks were 5-2 ATS as a home favorite this season, and they have only allowed 14.5 points per game since losing to Indiana.
Pick: Oregon 38, James Madison 10