College Football Playoff projections for championship week: Top seeds, matchups, bubble teams

For the second consecutive year, the ACC championship contest finds itself at the heart of college football's turmoil. The previous year, it facilitated the conference securing two invitations. 

This year? Well, that's a loaded question. 

Virginia (10-2, 7-1) secured a berth in the ACC championship contest following a 27-7 triumph over Virginia Tech. The Cavaliers have sustained two defeats, one of which was a 35-31 setback against NC State on September 6th in a non-conference matchup that had no bearing on the ACC standings. This is the most conventional aspect of this narrative. 

Cal defeated SMU with a score of 38-35, propelling the seven-win, five-loss Duke (7-5, 6-2) into the ACC championship contest. Despite dropping three non-conference matchups, the Blue Devils secured second place through a five-team tiebreaker, which also encompassed Miami (10-2, 6-2), the top-ranked ACC squad in the most recent College Football Playoff standings. 

The ACC might secure two spots in the College Football Playoff if Virginia defeats Duke and Miami prevails in their direct matchup against Notre Dame, a point that continues to spark the most heated discussion among the committee members. 

Should the Blue Devils prevail, the ACC might also be excluded from the CFP, as the top five conference champions secure berths. The American Conference's champion, which will be either Tulane (10-2) or North Texas (11-1), along with The Sun Belt champion if it's James Madison (11-1), could claim those two positions. In such a situation, would Miami still receive an at-large bid without clinching their conference title? The rankings released on Tuesday will hold considerable weight concerning the Irish and Hurricanes, given that neither squad is scheduled to compete during conference championship weekend.

Here's an overview of our most recent playoff forecasts, detailing first-round byes, initial matchups, and teams on the bubble.

Dropped out: None

Moved in: None

College Football Playoff first-round byes projected 

#1 Ohio State (12-0, 9-0; Big Ten titleholder) 

The Buckeyes halted a four-game losing streak against Michigan with a 27-9 victory in The Game. Julian Sayin (19 of 26, 233 yards, 3 TDs, INT) recovered from an early mistake, and Bo Jackson (22-117) contributed to the Buckeyes' rushing advantage over the Wolverines, 186-100. Ohio State is now headed to the Big Ten championship game to compete against Indiana, and regardless of the outcome, the Buckeyes will receive a first-round bye.

MORE: There is a gap at QB between Ohio State and Michigan

#2 Georgia (11-1, 7-1; SEC at-large)

Georgia pulled out a 16-9 victory against rival Georgia Tech at Mercedes-Benz Stadium on Friday; one where Nate Frazier (16-108) led the rushing attack and the Bulldogs limited the Yellow Jackets to 69 rushing yards. Texas A&M's 27-17 loss to Texas means Georgia will get a chance to win the SEC championship for the third time in four years under Kirby Smart.

The third-ranked Indiana Hoosiers stand at a perfect 12-0 record, with a 9-0 standing in the Big Ten conference's at-large division. 

Indiana concluded an undefeated regular season under second-year coach Curt Cignetti with a decisive 56-3 victory over Purdue. Fernando Mendoza (8 of 15, 117 yards, 2 TDs) played a supporting role to a ground game that amassed 355 yards on 9.6 yards per carry. Roman Hemby (12-152, TD) spearheaded the dominant rushing performance. The Hoosiers are heading to the Big Ten championship game for the first time in the program's history. 

Number 4 Texas Tech (11-1, 8-1; Big 12 titleholder)

The Red Raiders concluded their regular season by Defeating West Virginia 49-0. Texas Tech is moving on to the Big 12 championship game for a second encounter with BYU, and the Red Raiders would still be a solid at-large contender even if they lose. Behren Morton (completing 25 of 32 passes for 310 yards and 3 touchdowns) contributed to Texas Tech's 572-180 yard advantage over the Mountaineers. The Red Raiders previously defeated the Cougars 29-7 on November 8. 

College Football Playoff first-round matchups, as projected 

A review of AllSportsPeople' anticipated College Football Playoff first-round pairings as conference championship weekend approaches: 

Tulane, ranked 12th with a 10-2 record and 7-1 in American play, will face Oregon, ranked 5th with an 11-1 record and 7-1 in Big Ten play, which is considered an at-large selection.

The Ducks defeated Washington with a score of 26-14, securing the Big Ten's third spot in the College Football Playoff. Quarterback Dante Moore (completing 20 of 29 passes for 286 yards and one touchdown) only threw one interception across the Ducks' most recent four contests, and the Ducks restricted the Huskies to a total of 283 yards. This performance should be sufficient for them to host a home playoff game at Autzen Stadium. Tulane triumphed over Charlotte 27-0, clinching a contest against North Texas (11-1) in the American Conference championship game – and the victor is expected to receive an automatic CFP qualification. The Green Wave held the 49ers to 140 total yards and a mere minus-3 yards on the ground. Will Jon Sumrall opt to remain with The Green Wave rather than moving to Florida? Mean Green coach Eric Morris has already made his choice by accepting the Oklahoma State position. 

Virginia, ranked 11th (10-2 record, 7-1 in ACC play, ACC champion), will face Texas A&M, ranked 6th (11-1 record, 7-1 in SEC play, SEC at-large selection).

Texas defeated the Aggies, preventing Texas A&M from reaching the SEC championship contest. Marcel Reed completed 20 of his 32 passes for 180 yards, tossing 2 interceptions. The Aggies were outscored 24-7 during the latter half, and a less demanding strength of schedule within the SEC will probably place Texas A&M in this particular seeding bracket. Virginia restricted the Hokies to a mere six initial first downs, and the Cavaliers are poised to conclude an exceptional season under Tony Elliott, marking the program's inaugural conference championship since 1995. 

Number 10 Alabama (10-2, 7-1; SEC at-large) faces Number 7 Ole Miss (11-1, 7-1; SEC at-large). 

Ole Miss defeated Mississippi State 38-19, with Trinidad Chambliss (23 of 34, 354 yards, 4 TDs) delivering an exceptional performance to secure a third consecutive Egg Bowl triumph. Regardless of Lane Kiffin's presence, the Rebels appear poised to host a preliminary playoff match. Alabama narrowly defeated Auburn 27-20 in a fiercely fought Iron Bowl, where the Tigers mounted a comeback from a 17-0 deficit before Ty Simpson connected on the decisive touchdown pass to Isaiah Horton (5-35, 3 TDs) with 3:50 left on the clock. Would an Alabama team with three losses be excluded from the CFP should they fall to Georgia in the SEC championship? Our assessment suggests otherwise.

No. 9 Notre Dame (10-2, Independent at-large) will face No. 8 Oklahoma (10-2, 6-2; SEC at-large). 

John Mateer (23 of 38, 318 yards, 2 TDs, 3 INTs) preserved the Sooners' CFP aspirations with a 58-yard TD pass to Isaiah Sategna with 4:16 left on the clock to secure a 17-13 triumph over LSU. This performance ought to be sufficient to place Oklahoma in the tournament under coach Brent Venables. The sole inquiry is whether Oklahoma will host a game in the initial round. Notre Dame annihilated Stanford 49-20, providing the committee no justification to rank them outside the top 10. Alabama could potentially surpass the Irish to heighten the suspense with The Hurricanes, yet we still believe Notre Dame will secure a position. Miami's exclusion from the ACC championship game might serve as an indirect rationale.

College Football Playoff hopefuls on the bubble 

Miami (10-2, 6-2) 

Miami did its part to prolong the Notre Dame debate with a 38-7 victory at Pitt that clinched back-to-back 10-win seasons for Mario Cristobal. Carson Beck (23 of 29, 267 yards, 3 TDs, INT) stayed on point, and Rueben Bain led the Hurricanes' defense with 1.5 sacks. The Hurricanes beat the Irish 27-24 on Aug. 31. 

BYU (11-1, 8-1) 

BYU secured a spot in the Big 12 championship game following a decisive 41-21 triumph over UCF. Quarterback Bear Bachmeier (completing 21 of 25 passes for 289 yards and one touchdown) found his rhythm after the Cougars trailed by 14 points early in the first quarter, while running back LJ Martin (carrying the ball 22 times for 95 yards and three touchdowns) had a significant impact on the ground game. The Knights' rushing attack was limited to just 44 yards. The Cougars' route to the playoffs is now straightforward, setting up a rematch against Texas Tech. BYU will clinch a playoff berth with a victory.

Vanderbilt (10-2, 6-2) 

The Commodores concluded a remarkable season by Defeating Tennessee 45-24. Diego Pavia, completing 18 of 28 passes for 268 yards, one touchdown, and two interceptions, also rushed for 165 yards and a touchdown on 20 carries, a performance that should at least secure him a spot as a Heisman finalist in New York. Vanderbilt has been averaging 577 total yards and 45 points per game over their past three contests versus Auburn, Kentucky, and Tennessee. While the Commodores will be considered, it's exceedingly difficult to fit a sixth SEC team into the playoff picture.

MORE: Diego Pavia's brother arrested after win in Knoxville

Texas (9-3, 6-2) 

Texas presents the strongest argument as a team with three defeats, and Longhorns head coach Steve Sarkisian voiced his plea following a 27-17 triumph over Texas A&M. Arch Manning (completing 14 of 29 passes for 179 yards and one touchdown) and Quintrevion Wisner (rushing for 155 yards on 19 carries) spearheaded a significant second-half performance against the Aggies. This followed a 29-21 defeat to Florida on October 4 is the reason why Texas will be left out.