Week 7 could get wild.
Four AP Top 25 teams are underdogs against unranked opponents. There are three matchups between ranked teams. It's the perfect week to complete the first half of the college football season.
No. 6 Oklahoma is one of those underdogs. The Sooners play unranked, two-loss Texas in the Red River Rivalry at 3:30 p.m. on ABC. No. 15 Michigan is a road underdog at USC in another Big Ten matchup at 7:30 p.m. on NBC. No. 21 Arizona State and No. 24 South Florida face road tests at Utah and North Texas, respectively.
The ranked matchups should be good, too. In the noon window, No. 8 Alabama travels to No. 14 Missouri on ABC and No. 1 Ohio State faces No. 17 Illinois on Fox.
The best matchup of the weekend? It's No. 7 Indiana at No. 3 Oregon at 3:30 p.m. ET on CBS. Which Big Ten team will stay unbeaten?
Each week, we pick games against the spread for AP Top 25 teams. Here is a look at our record involving AP Top 25 teams heading into Week 7. (Odds according to Caesars)
Straight up: 71-24 (11-4 in Week 6)
Against the spread: 44-50-1 (9-6 in Week 6)
MORE: College Football Playoff forecast after Week 6
Week 7 picks against the spread
Friday, Oct. 10
No. 24 South Florida at North Texas (-1.5) (7:30 p.m., ESPN2)
Ranked teams are 0-3 ATS on week-day games this season. Can the Bulls break that trend against North Texas? The Mean Green average 44.8 points per game, and Drew Mestemaker has 11 TDs and no interceptions. These teams have not met since 2002. The Bulls will take advantage of a North Texas run defense that allows 180.4 yards per game.
Pick: South Florida wins 31-28 in an UPSET.
Saturday, Oct. 11
No. 8 Alabama (-3.5) at No. 14 Missouri (12 p.m., ABC)
This is the biggest home game of the Eli Drinkwitz era to date. Beau Pribula leads the SEC with a 75.9% completion percentage, and Ahmad Hardy leads the SEC in rushing yards. Alabama beat Missouri 34-0 last season and has won five SEC meetings by an average of 28.6 points per game. Jam Miller – who had 136 yards in Week 6 against Alabama – will get another 20 carries on the road.
Pick: Alabama wins 30-22 and COVERS the spread.
MORE: Alabama QB Ty Simpson playing like a Heisman candidate
Pitt at No. 25 Florida State (-9.5) (12 p.m., ESPN)
Pitt reset its season with freshman quarterback Mason Heintschel, who had four TD passes in a 48-7 victory against Boston College. The Panthers – led by linebackers Kyle Louis and Rasheem Biles – have the best run defense in the ACC at 66.2 yards per game.
Pick: Florida State wins 27-24 but FAILS TO COVER the spread.
No. 1 Ohio State (-16) at No. 17 Illinois (12 p.m., Fox)
This is the biggest game of the Bret Bielema era at Illinois. The Illini are 5-6 S/U as a home underdog, but the defense has allowed 322.3 passing yards per game against Power 4 opponents this season. Julian Sayin (80.2% completion percentage) is among the most-efficient passers in the FBS, and Jeremiah Smith has at least one TD in five consecutive games. Will Illinois be the first to score double digits against the Buckeyes' top-ranked scoring defense?
Pick: Ohio State wins 31-13 and COVERS the spread.
Washington State at No. 4 Ole Miss (-32.5) (12:45 p.m., SEC Network)
The Cougars gave up 59 points in losses to North Texas and Washington. That should mean more numbers for Trinidad Chambliss – who ranks third in the FBS with 15.9 yards per completion. The Cougars also allow 150.4 rushing yards per game. Ole Miss averages 43.3 points and is 4-0 ATS at home this season.
Pick: Ole Miss wins 45-10 and COVERS the spread.
Virginia Tech at No. 13 Georgia Tech (-14.5) (3:30 p.m., ACC Network)
Georgia Tech is 0-2 ATS as a double-digit favorite, but the Yellow Jackets are coming off a bye week. The Hokies have allowed just 49.7 rushing yards per game since Brent Pry was fired, so there is a chance to hang around here if they can limit Georgia Tech's possessions with Haynes King and Jamal Haynes.
Pick: Georgia Tech wins 31-17 but FAILS TO COVER the spread.
No. 7 Indiana at No. 3 Oregon (-7.5) (3:30 p.m., CBS)
The Hoosiers have another chance against a top-10 opponent, and both teams had a bye week to get ready. Fernando Mendoza (197.8 passer rating) and Dante Moore (183.5) are among the leading Heisman Trophy contenders. Indiana ranks second in the FBS with 9.8 tackles for loss per game. Will that trend continue on the road? Indiana is 0-2 ATS as a road underdog under Curt Cignetti – and those losses were to Ohio State and Notre Dame.
Pick: Oregon wins 31-20 and COVERS the spread.
MORE: What comes next for James Franklin, Penn State?
No. 22 Iowa State (-4.5) at Colorado (3:30 p.m., ESPN)
The Buffaloes are struggling with turnovers. Colorado has a minus-8 turnover ratio in its last four games, and they have failed to create a turnover in that four-game stretch. The Buffaloes have one-score losses at home against Georgia Tech and BYU, and Iowa State has some injuries on defense. That said, Rocco Becht – who has 9 TDs and two INTs – will not give this game away.
Pick: Iowa State wins 27-19 and COVERS the spread.
NC State at No. 16 Notre Dame (-22.5) (3:30 p.m., Peacock)
It's the third 20-point spread in four weeks for the Irish. CJ Carr has a 72.3% completion percentage with seven TDs and no interceptions through a three-game winning streak, but it's the running game that will take advantage of a NC State defense that allowed 200-plus rushing yards to Virginia and Virginia Tech. The Irish have won the last two meetings by 21 points.
Pick: Notre Dame wins 41-20 but FAILS TO COVER the spread.
Texas (-3) vs. No. 6 Oklahoma (3:30 p.m., CBS)
The Arch Manning bandwagon has lost followers. Texas has two losses heading into the Red River Rivalry, and the Sooners are riding high with a defense that allows just 193 yards per game. Oklahoma quarterback Michael Hawkins Jr. had three TD passes against Kent State in place of injured John Mateer last week. Everything points toward an Oklahoma victory, but this might be the time to buy back in on the Longhorns. Manning will lead a late field-goal drive in the clutch, and Texas stays alive in the SEC race.
Pick: Texas wins 20-19 but FAILS TO COVER the spread.
Arkansas at No. 12 Tennessee (-13.5) (4:15 p.m., SEC Network)
How will the Razorbacks respond with interim coach Bobby Petrino on the road? Tennessee averages 41 points per game in SEC play, and Joey Aguilar averages 291.8 passing yards per game. This is set up for a shootout – and that will suit Tennessee fine at home. This will be the highest-scoring game involving a ranked team this weekend.
Pick: Tennessee wins 45-30 and COVERS the spread.
Florida at No. 5 Texas A&M (-7.5) (7 p.m.., ESPN)
It's the third straight home game for the Aggies against a resurgent Florida team coming off an upset of Texas. Florida quarterback DJ Lagway has one TD and five interceptions on the road this season. Texas A&M quarterback Marcel Reed has nine TDs and two interceptions at home. The Aggies grind out another victory and get a field goal for a late cover.
Pick: Texas A&M wins 26-16 and COVERS the spread.
Kansas at No. 9 Texas Tech (-14.5) (7:30 p.m., Fox)
Kansas allowed 39.5 points and 599 yards in losses to Missouri and Cincinnati, and that is troubling heading into a game against Texas Tech – which ranks second in scoring offense (48.6 ppg.) and fourth in scoring defense (11.2 ppg.). It's a hefty line, but the Red Raiders are 5-0 ATS this season and could turn this into a blowout if Kansas turns the football over.
Pick: Texas Tech wins 42-24 and COVERS the spread.
No. 15 Michigan at USC (-2.5) (7:30 p.m., NBC)
Two Big Ten playoff hopefuls meet in a rematch of last year's 27-24 thriller. Which weakness is exploited more? The Wolverines allowed 289 passing yards per game in road games against Oklahoma and Nebraska – and now they face the Big Ten's top-rated passer in Jayden Maiava (1,587 yards, 11 TDs, INT). Michigan's Justice Haynes leads the Big Ten with 654 rushing yards and eight TDs with a string of five straight 100-yard games. Bryce Underwood is back in the prime-time spotlight. Will he deliver in a back-and-forth shootout?
Pick: Michigan wins 34-31 in an UPSET.
No. 10 Georgia (-3.5) at Auburn (7:30 p.m., ABC)
This is a surprising spread, but the Tigers had a bye week and this feels like the all-in moment for Hugh Freeze. Can Auburn protect Jackson Arnold – who took 14 sacks in the losses to Oklahoma and Texas A&M? Georgia has won the last eight meetings against Auburn – which includes the 2017 SEC championship game – but two of the last three victories at Jordan-Hare Stadium were decided by seven points.
Pick: Georgia wins 28-19 and COVERS the spread.
South Carolina at No. 11 LSU (-10) (7:45 p.m., SEC Network)
What kind of response will LSU have after a bye week? The offense has struggled. Garrett Nussmeier has a 141.2 passer rating at home, and running back Caden Durham (ankle) could return this week. South Carolina also had a bye week. How effective will LaNorris Sellers be in the deep passing attack with receivers Nyck Harbor (20.0 ypc.) and Vandrevious Jacobs (17.9 ypc.)? That will determine whether South Carolina can hang around.
Pick: LSU wins 31-21 and COVERS the spread.
No. 18 BYU (-2.5) at Arizona (8 p.m., ESPN2)
This line seems low considering the Cougars have been solid around quarterback Bear Bachmeier, who is coming off a 351-yard performance against West Virginia in Week 6. The Wildcats have allowed 9.8 points per game in home victories, so maybe it's the trap-game feel of it? The Cougars have a top-10 defense that allows 12.2 points per game. BYU has won the last four meetings in the series.
Pick: BYU wins 23-16 and COVERS the spread.
No. 21 Arizona State at Utah (-5.5) (10:15 p.m., ESPN)
How will Arizona State handle the road environment at Rice Eccles Stadium? Both teams had bye weeks to get ready, and the Sun Devils beat the Utes 27-19 last season. Sam Leavitt has not thrown an interception since the loss to Mississippi State, and he averages 59 rushing yards per game. The Utes get a do-over after the loss to Texas Tech, and the defense takes advantage behind John Henry Daley (6.5 sacks).
Pick: Utah wins 28-24 but FAILS TO COVER the spread.