Four matchups between ranked teams highlight a loaded Week 5 college football schedule.
A wild September is in the books.
Two matchups between ranked teams are the highlight of the first week of October.
Who knew No. 16 Vanderbilt at No. 10 Alabama would be one of those games? The Commodores can validate their 5-0 start against the Crimson Tide. Vanderbilt beat Alabama 40-35 last season, but the Crimson Tide are riding high after a 24-21 victory against No. 12 Georgia in Week 5. Will the winner of this matchup be the SEC favorite?
No. 2 Miami travels to No. 18 Florida State in the other huge matchup. The Seminoles are coming off a shocking loss at Virginia that exposed some flaws, and the Hurricanes have a chance to seize control of the ACC race. Week 5 also features No. 9 Texas – led by Arch Manning – at Florida and a fun matchup between Boise State and No. 21 Notre Dame.
Each week, we pick games against the spread for AP Top 25 teams. Here is a look at our record involving AP Top 25 teams heading into Week 5. (Odds according to Caesars)
Straight up: 60-20 (10-6 in Week 5)
Against the spread: 35-44-1 (6-10 in Week 5)
MORE: Projecting the College Football Playoff bracket after Week 5
Week 6 picks against the spread
Friday, Sept. 26
West Virginia at No. 23 BYU (-19.5) (10:30 p.m., ESPN)
West Virginia has been outscored 89-24 in its last two games. The Mountaineers rank last in the Big 12 in passing offense. That is one spot ahead of BYU – but the Cougars have an offense that averages a league-best 251.3 yards per game on the ground. BYU is 2-0 ATS at home this season.
Pick: BYU wins 35-14 and COVERS the spread.
Saturday, Sept. 27
Wisconsin at No. 20 Michigan (-16.5) (12 p.m., Fox)
Both teams had a bye week, and Wisconsin quarterback Billy Edwards Jr. (knee) could return for the Badgers. The Badgers have the top run defense in the Big Ten at 50 yards per game, so Michigan is going to have to make some plays in the passing game with Bryce Underwood.
Pick: Michigan wins 27-17 but FAILS TO COVER the spread.
Kentucky at No. 12 Georgia (-20.5) (12 p.m., ABC)
This line dipped a half-point from its opening. Which mindset will the Bulldogs be in after the loss to Alabama? Kentucky has allowed 30-plus points in each of its SEC losses. Georgia has won four home meetings against Kentucky under Kirby Smart by an average of 26.3 points per game.
Pick: Georgia wins 38-14 and COVERS the spread.
No. 14 Iowa State at Cincinnati (-1.5) (12 p.m., ESPN2)
The Cyclones are road underdogs against the Bearcats – who average 39.5 points per game with dual-threat quarterback Brendan Sorsby, who has 10 TDs, one interception and averages 6.0 yards per carry. The Cyclones are 4-3 S/U as a road underdog since 2022. Rocco Becht should be able to take advantage of a Bearcats' pass defense that allows 249 yards per game.
Pick: Iowa State wins 27-20 in an UPSET.
No. 22 Illinois (-8.5) at Purdue (12 p.m., BTN)
This line has dropped almost two points – at which point there is some value in Illinois. The Illini squeaked out a 34-32 victory against USC. Purdue had a bye week to prepare – and Barry Odom will improve the Boilermakers as the season continues. Bret Bielema is 1-3 S/U against Purdue since coming to Illinois.
Pick: Illinois wins 30-19 and COVERS the spread.
No. 7 Penn State (-24.5) at UCLA (3:30 p.m., CBS)
Will the Nittany Lions have a three time-zone hangover after the loss to Oregon? UCLA allows a Big Ten-worst 232.8 yards per game on the ground – and that's the reason for this number. UCLA quarterback Nico Iamaleava has a 65.3% completion and averages 51 rushing yards per game – but he hasn't seen a defense like Penn State this season.
Pick: Penn State wins 41-14 and COVERS the spread.
MORE: At Penn State, it was more heartbreak in a big game
Brendan Ross/Vanderbilt University/University Images via Getty Images
No. 16 Vanderbilt at No. 10 Alabama (-10.5) (3:30 p.m., ESPN)
The Commodores beat Alabama 40-35 last season, and quarterback Diego Pavia averages 301 total yards per game. The line has dropped two points, and that suggests Vanderbilt will be in this game, too. Ty Simpson, however, has 11 TDs and no interceptions. Nick Saban used to thrive in these "revenge game" situations. Look for Kalen DeBoer to do the same.
Pick: Alabama wins 35-23 and COVERS the spread.
MORE: Ty Simpson dazzles in upset of Georgia
Boise State at No. 21 Notre Dame (-17.5) (3:30 p.m., NBC)
This is the first meeting between these schools. Notre Dame is clicking with an offense that has piled up 232 rushing yards per game with nine TDs in its last two games and had a stretch against Purdue and Arkansas where CJ Carr directed 13 touchdown drives on 14 possessions. Boise State has averaged 49 points per game in three victories since the season-opening loss to South Florida.
Pick: Notre Dame wins 35-20 but FAILS TO COVER the spread.
No. 24 Virginia at Louisville (-7) (3:30 p.m., ESPN)
Virginia is ranked after a 46-38 victory at Florida State that showcased an offense that ranks eighth in the FBS with 46.8 points per game. Can they prove it on the road against Louisville – which has been under the radar with USC transfer Miller Moss coming off back-to-back 300-yard games. There is a high potential for a wild finish here. The last four meetings have been decided by seven points or less.
Pick: Louisville wins 34-31 but FAILS TO COVER the spread.
MORE: Virginia field storm causes concern after FSU win
No. 9 Texas (-7) at Florida (3:30 p.m., ESPN)
Will the Gators have their back-against-the-wall moment against Texas? The Longhorns are coming off a bye week – and this might be a trendy upset pick knowing Florida has a tough defense. Both teams are good against the pass – which is going to turn up the heat on quarterbacks DJ Lagway and Arch Manning. We trust the Longhorns' offense a little more, even in a defensive struggle.
Pick: Texas wins 24-14 and COVERS the spread.
Kent State at No. 5 Oklahoma (-45.5) (4:30 p.m., SEC Network)
Who made Kent State's schedule? The Golden Flashes have played Texas Tech, Florida State and now Oklahoma. The Golden Flashes allowed an average of 64 points in those losses. Oklahoma will start Michael Hawkins Jr. in place of John Mateer (hand). How much will the Sooners hold back heading into the Red River Rivalry?
Pick: Oklahoma wins 51-7 but FAILS TO COVER the spread.
Houston at No. 11 Texas Tech (-12.5) (7 p.m., ESPN)
The Cougars and Red Raiders are both 4-0 – which spices up this Big 12 matchup. Conner Weigman has thrown just one interception in two road starts for Houston. The Red Raiders had a bye week to prepare – and Behren Morton should return for this matchup. Texas Tech has won the last six meetings in the series.
Pick: Texas Tech wins 38-24 and COVERS the spread.
Mississippi State at No. 6 Texas A&M (-14) (7:30 p.m., SEC Network)
The Bulldogs have improved under Jeff Lebby – but a prime-time road game at Texas A&M will be a huge test coming off the overtime loss to Tennessee. The Aggies are 0-3 ATS as a favorite this season. Texas A&M has totaled more than 200 rushing yards in its last two home games, and Le'Veon Moss is coming off a 139-yard performance against Auburn. This could be a shootout.
Pick: Texas A&M wins 38-30 but FAILS TO COVER the spread.
Minnesota at No. 1 Ohio State (-24.5) (7:30 p.m., Peacock)
Minnesota has allowed an average of 27.5 points in its last two games to Cal and Rutgers. That's a bad trend heading into a road matchup with Ohio State. The Buckeyes' defense has allowed just three TDs – and the offense should open up with the prime-time stage. The Gophers have not won at Ohio Stadium since 2000. Minnesota is 0-3 S/U against the Buckeyes under P.J. Fleck, and they lost those games by an average of 21.3 points.
Pick: Ohio State wins 35-10 and COVERS the spread.
No. 2 Miami (-5.5) at No. 18 Florida State (7:30 p.m., ABC)
Florida State's loss at Virginia prevented this from being a top-10 showdown. The Hurricanes had a bye week to prepare, and Florida State showed gaps in its run defense in the loss to the Cavaliers. Carson Beck is making his first true road start with the Hurricanes – so he will need to avoid the turnovers. The Hurricanes were 4-2 S/U as a road favorite last season.
Pick: Miami wins 30-23 and COVERS the spread.