Week 3 was supposed to be a prime-time showdown between top-10 SEC teams.
No. 18 South Florida changed that plan with an 18-16 victory against Florida in Week 2. Now, the Bulls meet No. 5 Miami at 4:30 p.m. on The CW. Who knew that would be one of three matchups between ranked teams this week?
The SEC is very much in the spotlight this week. No. 6 Georgia travels to No. 15 Tennessee at 3:30 p.m. on ABC. in a huge early-season SEC showdown. No. 16 Texas A&M travels to No. 8 Notre Dame at 7:30 p.m. ET on NBC. That is a must-win game for the Irish. Florida will take on No. 3 LSU in the prime-time spot at 7:30 p.m. at ABC.
This is a fun schedule. Each week, we pick games against the spread for AP Top 25 teams. Here is a look at our record involving AP Top 25 teams heading into Week 3. (Odds according to Caesars)
Straight up: 21-9 (12-4 in Week 2)
Against the spread: 12-17-1 (6-9-1 in Week 2)
MORE: Latest CFP projection has USF, Iowa State, South Carolina in
Week 3 picks against the spread
Saturday, Sept. 13
No. 4 Oregon (-28) at Northwestern (12 p.m., Fox)
Oregon has covered four TD spreads each of the last two weeks, and the challenge for the Wildcats is to disrupt Dante Moore's efficiency. He ranks second in the Big Ten with a 213.7 passer rating. The Ducks are 5-0 S/U and 3-2 ATS as a road favorite since joining the Big Ten – and they will cover if Preston Stone continues to struggle with turnovers.
Pick: Oregon wins 38-7 and COVERS the spread.
No. 12 Clemson (-4) at Georgia Tech (12 p.m., ESPN)
This line dropped 1.5 points from its opening. This is Georgia Tech's chance to announce its presence in the ACC race. The Yellow Jackets are 3-3 ATS as an underdog the last two seasons under Brent Key, but we would like to see what Haynes King's status is. King was limited to 129 passing yards and -3 rushing yards with four interceptions the last time these teams played in 2023 – but the Yellow Jackets are a different program now. This will be tight.
Pick: Clemson wins 29-24 and COVERS the spread.
Central Michigan at No. 23 Michigan (-27.5) (12 p.m., BTN)
There will be Conor Stalions references for this game. Michigan also won't have Sherrone Moore, who is serving a two-game suspension. There might be a hangover from the Oklahoma loss, but freshman quarterback Bryce Underwood will get chances against a secondary that allowed 300-plus yards against San Jose State and Pitt the last two weeks.
Pick: Michigan wins 42-10 and COVERS the spread.
BENDER: Michigan needs to find right level of patience with Bryce Underwood
No. 13 Oklahoma (-24.5) at Temple (12 p.m., ESPN2)
Temple is off to a 2-0 start under KC Keeler, and quarterback Evan Simon – a Rutgers transfer – has nine TDs and no interceptions. How will the Owls slow down John Mateer - who leads the FBS in total offense with 416 yards per game? The Sooners beat Temple 51-3 last season.
Pick: Oklahoma wins 42-17 and COVERS the spread.
MORE: John Mateer proves too much for Michigan
Wisconsin at No. 19 Alabama (-20.5) (12 p.m., ABC)
Danny O'Neill has been effective at quarterback for the Badgers, but it's a tough road test for Luke Fickell. Wisconsin didn't have an answer for Jalen Milroe in last year's game, but Ty Simpson will stay in the pocket. Wisconsin is 1-4 S/U and 1-4 ATS under Luke Fickell. Will the Badgers hang around a little longer this time?
Pick: Alabama wins 34-14 but FAILS TO COVER the spread.
South Alabama at No. 25 Auburn (-25.5) (12:45 p.m., SEC Network)
South Alabama lost a 33-31 heart-breaker to Tulane in Week 2, and Bishop Davenport is an exciting playmaker at quarterback. Jackson Arnold has a 77.8% completion percentage with three TDs and no interceptions, and he also has 142 rushing yards. This is the first meeting between the schools.
Pick: Auburn wins 41-17 but FAILS TO COVER the spread.
No. 6 Georgia (-4.5) at No. 15 Tennessee (3:30 p.m., ABC)
Will the Vols finally knock off the Bulldogs? Georgia has dominated this series under Kirby Smart, and Gunner Stockton has been turnover-free through two starts. Tennessee quarterback Joey Aguilar will attack a Georgia defense that has a nasty look again. Georgia has won the last four meetings at Neyland Stadium by an average of 30.5 points. Imagine the celebration if the Vols can pull this off.
Pick: Georgia wins 27-20 and COVERS the spread.
Oregon State at No. 21 Texas Tech (-23.5) (3:30 p.m., Fox)
The Beavers have given up an average of 35 points to Fresno State and Cal. Texas Tech presents more issues with their offense, and the Red Raiders are at home. Oregon State quarterback Maalik Murphy averages 307.5 passing yards per game. If the Beavers avoid turnovers, then a cover on the road is possible.
Pick: Texas Tech wins 38-24 but FAILS TO COVER the spread.
No. 14 Iowa State (-21) at Arkansas State (4 p.m., ESPN2)
The Red Wolves have allowed 40 points per game through two games, and Arkansas rushed for 321 yards last week. Iowa State will lean on the tag-team of Carson Hansen and Abu Sama - who both average less than four yards per carry. That should change against Arkansas State. Iowa State beat the Red Wolves 52-7 last season. Will the road be different? Iowa State is 5-3 S/U and 4-4 ATS as a road favorite since 2023. This will be a tight cover.
Pick: Iowa State wins 38-14 and COVERS the spread.
Louisiana at No. 25 Missouri (-25) (4 p.m., ESPN+)
Louisiana quarterbacks Walker Howard and Daniel Beale have combined for a 48% completion percentage through two games, and that might make it hard to keep up with the Tigers. Missouri running back Ahmad Hardy – a UL-Monroe transfer – had 172 rushing yards against the Ragin' Cajuns last season.
Pick: Missouri wins 42-10 and COVERS the spread.
UTEP at No. 7 Texas (-41.5) (4:15 p.m., SEC Network)
This is a five-star quarterback matchup between Arch Manning and Malachi Nelson. Texas will shut down the running game, which will force a few mistakes from Nelson. Manning will continue his progression as a starter, and the Longhorns will play a cleaner game this time. Texas has outscored UTEP 206-30 in the last four meetings.
Pick: Texas wins 49-7 and COVERS the spread.
MORE: Arch Manning throws 4 TDs in 5 minutes
No. 18 South Florida at No. 5 Miami (-16.5) (4:30 p.m., The CW)
How far can the Bulls take this run? Miami is the stiffest challenge of all, and Carson Beck has played under control in his first two starts. The Hurricanes beat South Florida 50-15 last season. It was a one-score game at halftime, but the Bulls had 32 carries for 62 yards. Can they generate enough of a running game here?
Pick: Miami wins 31-17 but FAILS TO COVER the spread.
Western Michigan at No. 9 Illinois (-28) (7 p.m., FS1)
The Illini continue to roll with an experienced roster led by Luke Altmyer, and the Broncos have allowed 28 points per game in losses to North Texas and Michigan State. This spread already tickled up half a point. It's a natural let-down spot, but we like the Illini.
Pick: Illinois wins 35-3 and COVERS the spread.
Ohio at No. 1 Ohio State (-32.5) (7 p.m., Peacock)
Under Ryan Day, the Buckeyes are 5-0 against MAC schools and they have outscored those opponents by a combined score of 320-39. The Bobcats lost to Rutgers by a field goal and beat West Virginia. Can they have enough success in the running game with Parker Navarro and Sieh Bangura?
Pick: Ohio State wins 41-10 but FAILS TO COVER the spread.
Arkansas at No. 17 Ole Miss (-8.5) (7 p.m., ESPN)
Arkansas has scored 50-plus points in its first two games, and Taylen Green has 10 TD passes. A second season with offensive coordinator Bobby Petirino is making a difference so far.The Razorbacks are 6-1 ATS as a road underdog since 2023, and the Rebels have a young quarterback in Austin Simmons.
Pick: Ole Miss wins 35-28 but FAILS TO COVER the spread.
No. 16 Texas A&M at No. 8 Notre Dame (-6.5) (7:30 p.m., NBC/Peacock)
The Irish had a bye week to prepare for Texas A&M, and the Aggies will be a tough opponent here. Marcel Reed poses an interesting threat, and the Aggies average 5.0 yards per carry. Their run defense allowed 203 yards against UTSA. Will the Irish feed Jeremiyah Love in this matchup? Can the Aggies slow down that Notre Dame rushing attack? ND won 23-13 in College Station last year.
Pick: Notre Dame wins 24-17 and COVERS the spread.
Florida at No. 3 LSU (-9.5) (7:30 p.m., ABC)
Four of the last five meetings have been decided by 10 points or less, and the Gators will play with desperation after a shocking loss to South Florida. DJ Lagway still has a 74.5% completion percentage through two games, and he'll have some success against that nasty LSU defense. Florida is 0-7 S/U on the road against ranked opponents under Billy Napier.
Pick: LSU wins 31-21 and COVERS the spread.
MORE: Possible replacements for Billy Napier if Florida makes move
Vanderbilt at No. 11 South Carolina (-6.5) (7:45 p.m., SEC Network)
Who knew Vandy-South Carolina would be a much-anticipated quarterback duel between Diego Pavia and LaNorris Sellers? Pavia is second in the conference with a 199.6 passer rating, and the Commodores have enough talent to play spoiler here. South Carolina has won 16 straight meetings in the series – a streak that dates back to 2008.
Pick: South Carolina wins 28-24 but FAILS TO COVER the spread.
No. 20 Utah (-22) at Wyoming (8 p.m., CBS Sports Network)
Wyoming has allowed just one TD through two games, but Utah is a different challenge with Devon Dampier. Look for the Utes to generate more on the ground with Washington State transfer Wayshawn Parker, who averages 6.6 yards per carry through two games. The Utes are 1-4 ATS as a road favorite since last season. It's a lot of points on the road, but Utah squeaks out a cover.
Pick: Utah wins 37-13 and COVERS the spread.