Which games will become blowouts?
There are 16 games involving AP Top 25 against FBS competition in Week 2 – and eight of those games have more than four-TD spreads. This is the consequence of having a loaded Week 1 – but that doesn't mean there aren't good matchups this week.
Three games involving Big Ten teams on the road stand out. Iowa travels to No. 17 Iowa State in the Big Noon Kickoff game on Fox. No. 11 Illinois travels to Duke for a tricky non-conference matchup.
Then, No. 15 Michigan travels to No. 18 Oklahoma at 7:30 p.m. on ABC in the marquee matchup of the weekend – the only game between ranked teams.
Each week, we pick games against the spread for AP Top 25 teams. Here is a look at our record involving AP Top 25 teams heading into Week 2:
Straight up: 9-5 (9-4 in Week 1)
Against the spread: 6-8 (6-7 in Week 1)
MORE: Arch Manning, Alabama and more Week 1 overreactions
Week 2 picks against the spread
Saturday, Sept. 6
FIU at No. 2 Penn State (-41.5) (12 p.m., BTN)
This line dropped a point after Penn State failed to cover last week. FIU will continue to improve under first-year coach Willie Simmons and had two running backs average more than 6.0 yards per carry in the opener with Kejon Owens and Devonte Lyons. Look for Penn State to counter with its tag-team of Nick Singleton and Kaytron Allen, who combined for 62 yards and three TDs last week. The Nittany Lions might pour it on here, especially if they stuff the run.
Pick: Penn State wins 49-7 and COVERS the spread.
San Jose State at No. 7 Texas (-36.5) (12 p.m., BTN)
How will Arch Manning respond after a rough opener at Ohio State? San Jose State had three turnovers and allowed 236 rushing yards to Central Michigan. If that happens here, this will be a blowout. The Longhorns beat three Group of 5 opponents by a combined total of 159-10 last season.
Pick: Texas wins 52-11 and COVERS the spread.
MORE: Week 1 report card for Arch Manning's rough start
Baylor at No. 16 SMU (-3) (12 p.m., The CW)
SMU has lost 13 straight games against Baylor – a streak that needs to end if the Mustangs want to continue a march toward a second straight CFP berth. SMU is 6-1 S/U and 4-3 ATS as a home favorite since last season, and Kevin Jennings will present the Baylor defense that allowed 307 rushing yards to Auburn with problems. Look for SMU to end the streak in style.
Pick: SMU wins 35-31 and COVERS the spread.
Kennesaw State at No. 23 Indiana (-35.5) (12 p.m., FS1)
Kennesaw State's Dexter Williams – who started his career at Indiana – had a 36.4% completion percentage in a 10-9 loss to Wake Forest last week. Roman Hemby is primed for a big game on the ground for the Hoosiers, and Fernando Mendoza should be more efficient in his second start. Still, that's a huge line.
Pick: Indiana wins 42-10 but FAILS TO COVER the spread.
Iowa at No. 17 Iowa State (-3) (12 p.m., Fox)
Iowa's Mark Gronowski had just 44 passing yards in his debut, but Xavier Williams had 122 rushing yards. The Cyclones have rolled to a 2-0 start behind Rocco Becht and have the Big Noon spotlight here. Iowa State has not beat Iowa in consecutive seasons since 2011-12. The Hawkeyes still have enough defense to spring an upset here.
Pick: Iowa wins 21-18 in an UPSET.
Kent State at No. 24 Texas Tech (-48.5) (12 p.m.., TNT/HBO Max)
This is an absurd line. The Red Raiders beat Arkansas-Pine Bluff 67-7 in the opener, so Joey McGuire is not afraid to pour on the points with veteran quarterback Behren Morton. Kent State won their opener under Mike Carney despite averaging 2.8 yards per carry against Merrimack. The Golden Flashes allowed 60.7 points per game against Power 4 opponents last season.
Pick: Texas Tech wins 56-7 and COVERS the spread.
No. 11 Illinois (-3) at Duke (12 p.m., ESPN)
Is this an upset alert for Illinois? Darian Mensah – a Tulane transfer – passed for 389 yards and three TDs in his debut against Elon. Illinois has a three-year starter in Luke Altmyer, and had a 58.5% completion percentage on the road last season. We still think Illinois is the better team, but it's going to be tight.
Pick: Illinois wins 28-23 and COVERS the spread.
Utah State at No. 19 Texas A&M (-29.5) (12:45 p.m., SEC Network)
Utah State won Bronco Mendenhall's debut, but it will be a greater challenge against Marcel Reed – who had four TD passes behind a running game that averaged 5.0 yards per carry. The Aggies gave up a back-door cover on a late TD to UTSA last week. Utah State quarterback Bryson Barnes is an experienced QB who will lead a few TD drives.
Pick: Texas A&M wins 45-17 but FAILS TO COVER the spread.
Troy at No. 8 Clemson (-32.5) (3:30 p.m., ACC Network)
Clemson has no margin for error now, and Cade Klubnik will take that out against Troy – which allowed 249 passing yards to Nicholls State. Tae Meadows did have 186 rushing yards for the Trojans. If the Tigers' slow that down, however, and they will, then a blowout is possible. Clemson beat Troy 30-24 in 2016.
Pick: Clemson wins 56-17 and COVERS the spread.
Oklahoma State at No. 6 Oregon (-28.5) (3:30 p.m., CBS)
Oklahoma State lost quarterback Hauss Hejny (foot) to an injury in the season opener, which puts the pressure on backup quarterback Zane Flores at Autzen Stadium. The line has jumped a point as a result. Dante Moore had a 78.3% completion percentage with three TDs and no interceptions in his debut as the starter. Is there anything Oklahoma State can do on defense to disrupt that efficiency? The Cowboys were 1-6 ATS as an underdog last season – but only one of those losses was by more than 28 points.
Pick: Oregon wins 45-17 and FAILS TO COVER the spread.
South Florida at No. 13 Florida (-17.5) (4:15 p.m., SEC Network)
This is the moment for the Bulls – who hammered Boise State in the opener. South Florida is 3-1 ATS against ranked teams under Alex Golesh, and the chance to play spoiler is here. The Gators won the last meeting 31-28 in 2022. The percentage betting is almost even with this line.
Pick: Florida wins 35-19 but FAILS TO COVER the spread.
No. 20 Ole Miss (-9.5) at Kentucky (3:30 p.m. ABC)
We know the trends. The last four meetings have been decided by three points or less, and Kentucky won this matchup 20-17 last season. The Wildcats had 85 passing yards against Toledo in Week 1. Will they be able to play keep-away long enough? If Austin Simmons protects the football, then Ole Miss will get out with a victory. The Rebels were 3-2 ATS as a road favorite last season. Will the Wildcats prove us wrong again?
Pick: Ole Miss wins 31-19 and COVERS the spread.
Louisiana Tech at No. 3 LSU (-38) (7:30 p.m., ESPN+)
LSU leads the all-time series 19-1 – and that includes four meetings this century. The Bulldogs have hung around the last two meetings – losing by an average of 12.5 points per game. This won't be that close – but the Tigers could have an emotional letdown early. Do not let this spread dip any more.
Pick: LSU wins 41-10 but FAILS TO COVER the spread.
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No. 12 Arizona State (-7) at Mississippi State (7:30 p.m., ESPN2)
Arizona State beat Mississippi State last season – a game that unlocked a Big 12 championship run. It would be an even larger statement to go on the road and beat the Bulldogs. Mississippi State has a veteran quarterback in Blake Shapen, too. Sam Leavitt had 10 TDs and two interceptions and went 4-1 S/U on the road last season. Are we under-estimating the Sun Devils here? Both teams were peeking ahead in Week 1.
Pick: Arizona State wins 31-26 but FAILS TO COVER the spread.
No. 15 Michigan at No. 18 Oklahoma (-6) (7:30 p.m., ABC)
This line has jumped up a point – which means there is faith in John Mateer after a debut in which he had 392 passing yards. Michigan will be without star linebacker Jaishawn Barham in the first half after he was ejected for targeting in the second half against New Mexico last week. The Sooners are 3-1 S/U at home against ranked teams under Brent Venables, with the lone loss coming to Tennessee last season. How will Michigan quarterback Bryce Underwood handle the pressure of his first road start? The Wolverines were 1-3 S/U on the road last season under Sherrone Moore.
Pick: Oklahoma wins 28-24 but FAILS TO COVER the spread.
UL-Monroe at No. 21 Alabama (-37.5) (7:45 p.m., SEC Network)
How long will the hang-over effect last for the Crimson Tide after a 31-17 loss to Florida State? The Crimson Tide were 5-2 ATS as home last season, and Kalen DeBoer will have his team ready. Will Alabama ignite a running game that averaged 3.0 yards per carry in Week 1?
Pick: Alabama wins 48-10 and COVERS the spread.