Where to find college football's next 'home run' coaching hire

You are a Power 5 athletic director. You are tasked with hiring a new football coach. You presumably want this coach to last more than 11 games (looking at you, Washington State) or 13 games (looking at you, Washington).

Four Power 5 jobs are currently open, and a few more may follow. Six have already been filled, thanks to the bomb-shell hires by USC (Lincoln Riley) and LSU (Brian Kelly). Every AD and fan base is looking for the "home run" hire, the guy who fulfills the program's perceived potential. But where do you find these guys? With James Franklin, Dave Aranda, Jimbo Fisher and Mel Tucker seemingly taking themselves off the market, ADs will be looking harder than ever for them.

MORE: Latest news on coaching carousel

Sporting News is here to help. We looked at all 52 Power 5 hires in the last five years, placed them into categories based on where the hires came from, and then subjectively picked "home runs" and "failures." The category with the biggest home run hit rate was "promoted from within," with superstars Ryan Day, Lincoln Riley and Mario Cristobal all being elevated from coordinator when the head coach left. So when names get floated for the current openings, ADs better double check that the best man for the job isn't already on campus.

We took these categories one step further: Of the 19 coaches who were coordinators or assistants before being hired, there were seven home runs, six failures. Of the 24 sitting head coaches, either Group of 5 or Power 5, there are four home runs and nine failures. Moving from one program to another as a head coach has been far from a slam dunk in recent years.

Here is the breakdown of every Power 5 hire of the past five years and where those hires came from.

MORE: Why Lincoln Riley left OU | Where does Oklahoma turn?

Group of 5 head coaches

• Total: 18
• Still current head coach: 12
• Home runs: 2
• Failures: 6

This is the most common route ADs have taken — grabbing the hottest Group of 5 coach available — but the hit rate has not been great. Matt Rhule at Baylor and Lane Kiffin at Ole Miss fall into the "home run" category, and Kiffin's placement may be premature. Minnesota's P.J. Fleck is on the fringe but not quite there with a 33-23 record, which is similar to the Golden Gophers' 37-28 record in the five years prior to his arrival. On the failure side, Tom Herman (Texas), Chad Morris (Arkansas), Matt Wells (Texas Tech) and Nick Rolovich (Washington State) have been fired, Willie Taggart left Oregon after one 7-5 season and Scott Frost continues to lead Nebraska to new lows.

Power 5 coordinators

• Total: 9
• Still current head coach: 7
• Home runs: 1
• Failures:  3

Dave Aranda is only 11-9 at Baylor, but remember, his first season was the Pandemic Year and the program fell off quickly after Matt Rhule departed. Aranda rebuilt the Bears in Year 2 and now has them in the top 10. Jeremy Pruitt is the only coach in this group to get fired, but Mel Tucker also falls into the failure category after lasting just one 5-7 season at Colorado before leaving. Steve Sarkisian led Texas to an unthinkable six-game losing streak in Year 1.

Promoted from within

• Total: 8
• Still current head coach: 4
• Home runs: 5
• Failures: 2

This is an all-or-nothing category. There is an impressive group of home runs with Tom Allen at Indiana, Lincoln Riley at Oklahoma, Mario Cristobal at Oregon and Ryan Day at Ohio State. Ed Orgeron is still in the home run category despite being fired by LSU, for delivering a national championship in 2019. Matt Luke and Jimmy Lake have also been fired and Manny Diaz is on the brink at Miami. We're resisting putting Diaz in the failure category for now, but if he does get fired, that will land every promoted coach into one category or the other.

Power 5 head coach

• Total: 5
• Still current head coach: 3
• Home runs: 2
• Failures: 2

Tucker has exceeded all expectations at Michigan State despite the ugly 56-7 loss to Ohio State. It seemed the university overpaid to hire him away from Colorado, and it may have overpaid him again with a 10-year, $95 million contract extension, but he delivered in a big way in 2021; the Spartans were expected to win just four games. Jimbo Fisher has made Texas A&M as relevant as it has ever been, both on the recruiting trail and in the national conversation. It did not capitalize this season when everything seemed lined up for it to break through and win the SEC West, but AggieLand is still thrilled to have Jimbo at the helm. Taggart was fired during his second season at Florida State. Dan Mullen enjoyed success at Florida, but similar to Herman at Texas, it wasn’t good enough and he was fired after four seasons.

MORE: Tucker signs $95 million extension

Out of football

• Total: 5
• Still current head coach: 4
• Home runs: 0
• Failures: 1

This group has not fit the narratives that existed when they were hired. Chip Kelly was supposed to rock it at UCLA. He hasn't. Herm Edwards and Mack Brown were expected to fail at Arizona State and North Carolina, respectively. They haven't. Greg Schiano was supposed to be the answer at Rutgers. He might prove to be, but the Scarlet Knights aren't making too much progress climbing up the Big Ten ladder. The only hire analysts pegged correctly was Les Miles at Kansas. He was not seen as a good choice, and that initial view proved correct.

NFL assistants

• Total: 3
• Still current head coach: 3
• Home runs: 0
• Failures: 0

This group is all new on the job and all three have shown some promise after taking over dormant programs. Karl Dorrell took over at Colorado after Tucker’s 5-7 season and went 3-1 in the Pac-12  in the Pandemic Year, though there CU has been mediocre again this season. Bret Bielema took over an Illinois program that had nine consecutive losing seasons. It has endured a 10th, but it also has wins over Nebraska and Penn State. Jedd Fisch found an empty cupboard at Arizona and then suffered through a year of injuries.

Power 5 assistants

• Total: 2
• Still current head coach: 2
• Home runs:  1
• Failures: 0

Sam Pittman at Arkansas and Shane Beamer at South Carolina have exceeded expectations as first-time head coaches in the SEC. Pittman took over a program in disarray and pushed it to the middle of the toughest division in the nation in just two years. Both fan bases have to be encouraged by the early returns.

Fired Power 5 coach

• Total: 1
• Still current head coach: 0
• Home runs: 0
• Failures: 1

Mullen, Orgeron and Gary Patterson fall into this category this hiring cycle. The only coach to get scooped up by a P5 program after being fired in the last five years is Kevin Sumlin at Arizona, and that did not work out. Sumlin took over a declining program from Rich Rodriguez and further declined it, leaving Fisch with a major rebuild. Sumlin went 5-7 in 2018, 4-8 in 2019 and then 0-5 in 2020, closing things out with a humiliating 70-7 loss to rival Arizona State.

FCS head coach

• Total: 1
• Still current head coach: 1
• Home runs: 0
• Failures: 0

Chris Klieman has been an excellent hire for Kansas State, bordering on home run. A 19-16 record through three seasons includes two wins against Oklahoma. The program is on solid footing, unlike the last time Bill Snyder needed to be replaced.