College football bowl projections for championship week: What are the three best bowl matchups outside CFP?

Bill Bender

College football bowl projections for championship week: What are the three best bowl matchups outside CFP? image

It's all about the College Football Playoff now. 

We accept that. The 12-team field will be completed on Dec. 7, and perhaps no team has a more interesting path than Duke. The Blue Devils could win the ACC championship on Saturday and still play in the Bad Boy Mowers Pinstripe Bowl, where we have them projected to face Penn State – the preseason No. 2 that squeaked out bowl eligibility last week. 

Outside of the College Football Playoff, we have three very-enticing bowl matchups that lend credence to the fact that there should probably be 16 teams in the College Football Playoff. What are those matchups? 

Cheez-It Citrus Bowl (Dec. 31): Michigan-Texas feels like the blockbuster watch outside the College Football Playoff in a matchup between Bryce Underwood and Arch Manning. Which QB starts the hype machine for 2026? 

Duke's Mayo Bowl (Jan. 2): We have Vanderbilt against Miami – a battle of teams that probably should be in the 12-team field. Will Diego Pavia – a potential Heisman finalist – play in this one? 

DirecTV Holiday Bowl (Jan. 2): Washington-Georgia Tech would be a springboard for two programs looking to the next step with respective coaches Jedd Fisch and Brent Key, and it's one more chance to watch Haynes King with the Yellow Jackets. 

The penultimate set of College Football Playoff rankings was unveiled Tuesday. AllSportsPeople will have weekly bowl projections leading up to the unveiling of the 12-team field on Dec. 7. 

The first round of the new CFP will have one game on Friday, Dec. 19, and three on Saturday, Dec. 20. 

The quarterfinals will be played at the Cotton Bowl Classic (Dec. 31), Capital One Orange Bowl (Jan. 1), Rose Bowl Game presented by Prudential (Jan. 1) and Allstate Sugar Bowl (Jan. 1). 

The semifinals will be played at the Vrbo Fiesta Bowl (Jan. 8) and Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl (Jan. 9). The CFP national championship is Jan. 19 in Miami.

Here are our bowl projections for championship week: 

MORE: Projected College Football playoff bracket for conference championship week

College football bowl predictions 2025

There are 34 bowls involving FBS teams outside the College Football Playoff this season. A look at our projections for those matchups: 

DATEBOWLPROJECTION
Dec. 13Bucked Up LA Bowl Hosted by GronkBoise State vs. Washington State
Dec. 16IS4S Salute to Veterans Bowl*USF vs. Kansas State
Dec. 17StaffDNA Cure BowlUtah State vs. Miami, Ohio
Dec. 1768 Ventures BowlWestern Michigan vs. Troy
Dec. 19Myrtle Beach BowlWestern Kentucky vs. Southern Miss
Dec. 19Union Home Mortgage Gasparilla BowlCoastal Carolina vs. FIU
Dec. 22Famous Idaho Potato BowlToledo vs. Fresno State
Dec. 23Bush's Boca Raton BowlTexas State vs. Louisiana Tech
Dec. 23New Orleans BowlJacksonville State vs. James Madison
Dec. 23Scooter's Coffee Frisco BowlOld Dominion vs. San Diego State
Dec. 24Sheraton Hawaii BowlNorth Texas vs. Hawai'i
Dec. 26GameAbove Sports BowlOhio vs. Northwestern
Dec. 26Rate BowlNebraska vs. Arizona State
Dec. 26Servpro First Responder BowlUTSA vs. TCU
Dec. 27Go Bowling Military BowlEast Carolina vs. Georgia Southern
Dec. 27Bad Boy Mowers Pinstripe BowlPenn State vs. Duke
Dec. 27Wasabi Fenway BowlNavy vs. UConn
Dec. 27Pop-Tarts BowlArizona vs. Clemson
Dec. 27Snoop Dogg Arizona Bowl presented by Gin & JuiceCentral Michigan vs. UNLV
Dec. 27Isleta New Mexico BowlKennesaw State vs. New Mexico
Dec. 27Taxslayer Gator BowlMinnesota vs. NC State
Dec. 27Kinder's Texas BowlCincinnati vs. SMU
Dec. 29JLab Birmingham BowlMemphis vs. Louisiana
Dec. 30Radiance Technologies Independence BowlWake Forest vs. Iowa State
Dec. 30Liberty Mutual Music City BowlIllinois vs. Pitt
Dec. 30Valero Alamo BowlUSC vs. BYU
Dec. 31Reliaquest BowlLSU vs. Iowa
Dec. 31Tony The Tiger Sun BowlUtah vs. Louisville
Dec. 31Cheez-It Citrus BowlMichigan vs. Texas
Dec. 31SDS Distribution Las Vegas BowlMissouri vs. Cal
Jan. 2Lockheed Martin Armed Forces BowlArkansas State vs. Army
Jan. 2Autozone Liberty BowlHouston vs. Tennessee
Jan. 2Duke's Mayo BowlVanderbilt vs. Miami, Fla.
Jan. 2DirecTV Holiday BowlWashington vs. Georgia Tech

College Football Playoff first-round predictions 

A look at the four College Football Playoff first-round matchups for the 2025-26 season. Those first-round games will be played on campus: 

DATEBOWLPROJECTION
Dec. 19First-Round CFP gameNo. 9 Notre Dame at No. 8 Oklahoma
Dec. 20First-Round CFP gameNo. 11 Virginia at No. 6 Texas A&M
Dec. 20First-Round CFP gameNo. 12 Tulane at No. 5 Oregon
Dec. 20First-Round CFP gameNo. 10 Alabama at No. 7 Ole Miss

The SEC gets to host three first-round playoff games after having just one last year. We believe the Rebels will still get a home game based on their one-loss record, and as of now their opponent would be Alabama. What a surreal scene that would be at Vaught-Hemingway Stadium. We also get first-round home games at Kyle Field, Autzen Stadium and Gaylord Family-Oklahoma Memorial Stadium. Those are already three of the best environments in college football. Notre Dame and Oklahoma last played in a home-and-home series in 2012-13. 

MORE: A closer look at the sizable gap at QB between Ohio State and Michigan

College Football Playoff quarterfinal predictions

A look at the College Football Playoff quarterfinal matchups for the 2025-26 season. Those games will be played at the traditional New Year's Day Six bowl sites: 

DATEBOWLPROJECTION
Dec. 31Cotton Bowl Classic (quarterfinal)No. 3 Texas Tech vs. No. 6 Texas A&M
Jan. 1Capital One Orange Bowl (quarterfinal)No. 4 Indiana vs. No. 5 Oregon
Jan. 1Rose Bowl Game presented by Prudential (quarterfinal)No. 1 Ohio State vs. No. 9 Notre Dame
Jan. 1Allstate Sugar Bowl (quarterfinal)No. 2 Georgia vs. No. 10 Alabama

Texas Tech vs. Texas A&M at the Cotton Bowl? Yes, please. That would be a chance for the Red Raiders – our projected Big 12  champion – to flex a defense that allows 12.3 points per game against an SEC opponent. This would mean we get Georgia-Alabama III, a rematch between Oregon and Indiana from the regular season and a replay of last year's CFP championship game between Ohio State and Notre Dame. That's part of the deal in this new setup. There will be more rematches. Texas A&M is the only team on here that allows more than 17 points per game. These could be defensive struggles across the board. 

College Football Playoff semifinal predictions

A look at the College Football Playoff semifinal matchups for the 2025-26 season. Those games will be played at the traditional New Year's Day Six bowl sites: 

DATEBOWLPROJECTION
Jan. 8Vrbo Fiesta Bowl (semifinal)No. 2 Georgia vs. No. 3 Texas Tech
Jan. 9Chick-Fil-A Peach Bowl (semifinal)No. 1 Ohio State vs. No. 5 Oregon

This scenario says Oregon beats Indiana in the rematch and plays Ohio State in a College Football Playoff semifinal. The Ducks continue to trend in the right direction with Dante Moore and a strong defense. Georgia-Texas Tech would be a fun matchup, too. Substitute Oregon for Indiana, and you have the teams that likely would have been in the four-team College Football Playoff if we were still in that format. 

MORE: Will Lane Kiffin's departure to LSU impact Ole Miss' CFP ranking?

College Football Playoff championship pick 

A look at the College Football Playoff championship matchup for the 2025-26 season. That game is scheduled for Monday, Jan. 19 at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Fla.

DATEBOWLPROJECTION
Jan. 19CFP National championshipNo. 1 Ohio State vs. No. 2 Georgia

We have had this pick for three weeks. The Buckeyes have never won back-to-back national championships. Georgia would have a chance to win its third national title in five years. Kirby Smart and Ryan Day are the best two coaches in the sport right now. A rematch has been in order since the 42-41 thriller on Dec. 31, 2022. 

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