The 2026 NFL Draft is months away, but the biggest games of the college football season are looming. This quarterback class has already seen incredible turbulence. Arch Manning entered the year as a Heisman favorite and ended Week 1 as the butt of the sport's biggest jokes. LSU's Garrett Nussmeier was benched in Week 11.
Passers have stumbled and taken steps back. They've stagnated and stared down the reality that they must return to school in 2026.
One of the risers, though, was Oklahoma Sooners quarterback John Mateer -- at least in the early going. However, a hand injury required surgery back in September, pausing Mateer's march toward Round 1. He missed only one game, but in the weeks since, Mateer found more adversity, and the Sooners lost two crucial SEC contests.
Fair or not, Mateer's injury put him behind the eight ball. And while it impacted Oklahoma's season, it also clouded his NFL Draft projection.
Brent Venables provides John Mateer update
The Sooners won the only game Mateer missed, beating Kent State 44-0. Yet, they fell to Texas a week later, 23-6, with a rather flimsy offensive performance. Against Mississippi, Mateer completed just 17-of-31 passes for 223 yards in Oklahoma's second loss of the season.
He began his campaign as a sentry gun, but his shaky performances dampened the hype surrounding his platform season. We'll never know exactly how much his hand impacted his performances, but Mateer was notably worse in October than the month prior.
Head coach Brent Venables spoke about Mateer's progress after a bye week gave his quarterback more time to recover.
“It’s been improving and the velocity in which he’s been able to throw, I’ve seen him getting better and better,” Venables said, via George Stoia III.
That velocity could prove to be a difference-maker as the Sooners prepare for No. 4 Alabama and late-season clashes against Missouri and LSU. While the latter two have fallen on hard times, both have plenty of defensive talent capable of making a quarterback squirm -- especially one that isn't at full health.
Venables remained publicly optimistic about his quarterback.
“That hand will continue to get healthier as the season goes on," he said.
As for the 2026 NFL Draft, it's worth acknowledging the confounding factor Mateer's injury had on his profile. At 6'0", 224 pounds, he will continue to fight against his size at the next level. Part of that battle means having the requisite tools to compensate for physical limitations. Short quarterbacks with below-average arm strength don't last in the NFL.
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Mateer makes his money making plays out of structure, looking his best off-platform and having enough arm strength to test windows on the move. Early in the season, he delivered more from the pocket, showcasing starter-level throws into small windows. That ability diminished as Oklahoma hit its adversity.
Further, Mateer posted his only sub-55-percent completion rates in both losses. He threw zero touchdowns and three interceptions in the Red River Rivalry. If one can explain away those struggles as a matter of health, it is easier to look upon his season favorably.
Mateer playing at his best against Alabama would drive that case home. Another bad game against an elite defense would become another red flag for him to fight during the pre-draft circuit. A strong performance would put those losses behind him and the program, perhaps pushing Oklahoma into the College Football Playoff.
Ultimately, it feels far less likely that Mateer lands in Round 1 now than it did in September. He's still an erratic passer with size issues and a knack for forcing himself out of structure. Any doubt injected into his profile could be damning for his Day 1 odds, but a strong home stretch could decide whether he is a top-100 pick.
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