Explaining the Big 12 championship scenarios: How Texas Tech, BYU, and other teams might make it to the 2025 title game

The Big 12 championship picture is much more straight forward than the other Power 4 conferences heading into Rivalry Week. 

Four teams remain in contention for a spot in the Big 12 championship game, scheduled for December 6th at&T Stadium. No. 7 Texas Tech (10-1, 7-1) and No. 11 BYU (10–1, 7-1) seem headed for a second encounter, following their initial regular-season meeting on November 8th. With only one week remaining, No. 14 Utah (9-2, 6-2) and Arizona State (8-3, 6-2) are also still in the race. 

Seven potential scenarios exist for The Big 12 championship game, viewable on the conference's official website. Below, we outline how each team might secure a spot in the Big 12 championship game. 

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Big 12 championship possibilities for 2025

Four teams remain contenders for The Big 12 championship game. Here's how each can reach the conference championship: 

Texas Tech (10-1, 7-1) 

- Texas Tech clinches a spot in the Big 12 championship game with a win against West Virginia. 

A Big 12 championship spot would also be secured by The Red Raiders with an Arizona State loss to Arizona. Texas Tech holds head-to-head wins over BYU and Utah, which might become relevant then. 

The combined conference winning percentage of Texas Tech's adversaries stands at.486, which is the lowest figure among the four leading teams in the Big 12. 

BYU (10-1, 7-1) 

- BYU clinches a spot in the Big 12 championship game with a win against UCF. 

- The Cougars also would clinch a Big 12 championship berth with an Arizona State loss to Arizona. 

BYU would secure a place in the Big 12 championship game if they achieve a Texas Tech loss to West Virginia AND an Arizona State win against Arizona AND a Utah win against Kansas. In a three-way tie involving Arizona State and Utah, BYU would hold the tiebreaker. Under such circumstances, BYU and Utah would compete for The Big 12 championship title. 

BYU's conference rivals hold a.500 cumulative winning percentage, placing them third among the four Big 12 hopefuls. 

Utah (9-2, 6-2)

- Utah has a complex path to the Big 12 championship game. The Utes need a win against Kansas AND a Texas Tech loss against West Virginia AND a BYU win against UCF AND an Arizona State win against Arizona. In that scenario, BYU and Utah will play in the Big 12 championship game. 

The cumulative conference winning percentage of Utah's opponents stands at.528, marking it as the highest among the Big 12 contenders. 

Arizona State (8-3, 6-2) 

- Arizona State would advance to the Big 12 championship with a win against Arizona AND a BYU loss to UCF AND a Utah loss to Kansas. 

Arizona State would also move on if they had a win against Arizona, a Texas Tech loss to West Virginia, a BYU loss to UCF, and a Utah win against Kansas. The Sun Devils would be helped by a four-way tie. 

- Arizona State also can advance with a win against Arizona AND a Texas Tech loss to West Virginia AND a Utah loss to Kansas AND a BYU win against UCF. 

The cumulative conference winning percentage of Arizona State's opponents stands at.514, placing it second among Big 12 contenders. 

The Big 12 Conference has established its tiebreaker regulations for the upcoming 2025 season. 

The Big 12 will use six these tie-breakers for the 2024 season in this order until the tie is broken:

Step 1: Head-to-head competition among the teams.

Step 2: Win percentage against all common conference opponents among the tied teams.

Step 3: Percentage of wins against the next team above in the standings, using the record from All Conference games, and continuing up the standings.

Step 4: The combined win percentage of conference opponents in conference games, representing the strength of the conference schedule.

Step 5: Total number of wins in a 12-game season

Step 6: SportSource Analytics' top ranking (using the team Rating Score metric) after the final weekend of regular-season contests

Step 7: Coin toss.

Big 12 shared opponents for 2025

Here is a look at the common opponents for all the Big 12 teams in the conference championship hunt. We added the cumulative conference winning percentage – the fourth Big 12 tiebreaker – to show which teams are in the best position heading into Rivalry Week: