The Atlantic Coast Conference faces a stunning financial and competitive setback as it braces for the possibility of missing the 12-team College Football Playoff entirely. A scenario that could cost the league up to $116 million in revenue distributions, according to Front Office Sports' David Rumsey.
The conference’s best chance to secure a berth hinges on No. 17 Virginia beating Duke in Saturday’s ACC championship game. A Cavaliers victory would position Virginia as the fourth-highest-ranked conference champion, triggering an automatic $8 million payout to the league.
However, a Duke win would shift that bonus to the American Athletic Conference, with No. 20 Tulane likely to claim the final guaranteed spot after a championship win over North Texas.
No. 12 Miami remains the ACC’s only remote at-large possibility, though its path appears slim ahead of Sunday’s final CFP rankings. It's highly unlikely the Canes will sneak in without a few setbacks for other teams.
A total shutout would mark an unprecedented outcome for the expanded format, which was designed with the expectation that all Power 4 leagues would earn at least one Playoff berth annually. Instead, the ACC could watch two Group of 6 champions, which will likely be Tulane and James Madison, enter the field.
Beginning next year, CFP revenue distribution will shift, leaving the ACC with just a 17% share. But this year, without a Playoff team, the league risks walking away with nothing.
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