ACC championship scenarios, explained: How Miami, Pitt, and others can reach the 2025 title game

The ACC remains the wildest conference race of all in the College Football Playoff race. 

The ACC championship game at Bank of America Stadium on Dec. 6 remains attainable for six teams, one of which has five losses. Miami, ranked No. 13 and the highest-ranked ACC team in the AP Top 25, likely requires the most assistance. Virginia (No. 17) and SMU (No. 25) have their fates in their own hands, while Pitt (No. 24) is dependent on one of those teams faltering. Georgia Tech, with two losses, and Duke, with five losses – yes, you read that right – still have routes to the ACC championship game. 

Week 14 is sure to bring further developments. This analysis delves into the ACC championship contest, outlining the potential outcomes, tie-breaking procedures, and shared opponents for every institution. Numerous intricate scenarios exist that could determine which teams compete in Charlotte. 

MORE WEEK 14 SCENARIOS: SEC | Big Ten | Big 12 | Group of 5

ACC title picture 2025

Six teams remain in contention for the ACC championship game. Here's how each can reach the conference title game: 

Virginia (9-2, 6-1)

Virginia secures a place in the ACC championship game following their win over Virginia Tech. In the event of a three-way tie involving SMU and Pitt, Virginia and SMU would hold the advantage due to Pitt's shared opponent loss to Louisville. 

Should the Cavaliers lose to Virginia Tech, they'd be eliminated, provided Pitt defeats Miami and SMU wins against Cal. 

Should Virginia face defeat, their most favorable path to the ACC championship game involves Pitt losing to Miami, coupled with SMU's defeat by Cal. Additionally, the Cavaliers would require Duke to lose to Wake Forest. Finally, North Carolina must secure a victory over NC State. Under these conditions, Virginia and Miami would compete in the ACC championship game. 

- Virginia's 35-31 loss to NC State on Sept. 6 does not count as a conference game. 

SMU (8-3, 6-1)

SMU has secured a place in the ACC championship game following their victory against Cal. A three-way tie involving Virginia and Pitt would benefit SMU. Should a three-way tie occur between SMU and Pitt, the Cavaliers and Mustangs would be favored due to the Panthers' shared opponent loss to Louisville. 

Should SMU be defeated, the most favorable outcome for them to re-enter the ACC championship game would involve Pitt losing to Miami, coupled with Virginia's defeat by Virginia Tech. Additionally, the Mustangs would require Duke to lose to Wake Forest. The final condition would be for North Carolina to secure a victory over NC State. Under these circumstances, Virginia and SMU would compete in the ACC championship game. 

Pitt (8-3, 6-1) 

A victory over Miami, coupled with a Virginia defeat against Virginia Tech, would secure Pitt's place in the ACC championship game.

A victory over Miami, coupled with a SMU defeat to Cal, would secure Pitt a place in the ACC championship game. 

Miami (9-2, 5-2)

- Miami's best path to the ACC championship game is a win against Pitt AND a SMU win against Cal AND a Duke loss to Wake Forest AND a Virginia Tech win against Virginia. 

Miami might also reach the ACC championship game if they secure a victory over Pitt, coupled with a loss for Duke against Wake Forest, a loss for SMU against Cal, a loss for North Carolina against NC State, and a loss for Boston College against Syracuse.

- Pitt must lose, Virginia must lose to Virginia Tech, SMU must lose to Cal, and North Carolina must lose to NC State. 

- A victory over Pitt, coupled with a Virginia defeat by Virginia Tech, an SMU loss to Cal, a Duke loss to Wake Forest, and either a Boston College loss to Syracuse or a North Carolina loss to NC State. 

Duke (6-5, 5-2)

- Duke needs a win against Wake Forest AND a Pitt loss to Miami AND an SMU loss to Cal. 

A victory over Wake Forest, coupled with a Pitt defeat by Miami, a Virginia loss to Virginia Tech, and either a Syracuse win against Boston College or an NC State triumph over North Carolina, would also propel the Blue Devils to the ACC championship game. 

Georgia Tech (9-2, 6-2)

Georgia Tech has three potential scenarios for reaching the ACC championship game, contingent on specific outcomes, with the most favorable route requiring Virginia to lose to Virginia Tech and SMU to lose to Cal. 

If Miami loses to Pitt, Virginia loses to Virginia Tech, Duke loses to Wake Forest, and SMU loses to Cal, then Georgia Tech would face Pitt in the ACC championship game. 

A loss for Pitt against Miami, coupled with Virginia Tech's defeat by Virginia, Duke's loss to Wake Forest, SMU's loss to Cal, and North Carolina's loss to NC State, would lead to Georgia facing Virginia in the ACC championship game. 

Should Pitt lose to Miami, Virginia lose to Virginia Tech, Syracuse lose to Boston College, and North Carolina lose to NC State, Georgia Tech would then compete against Miami for the ACC championship. 

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ACC tiebreaker rules

To determine which team advances to the conference championship game, follow these ACC tiebreaker protocols, according to the conference's official website: 

1. Head-to-head competition between teams.

2. Winning percentage vs. Common opponents. 

3. Win percentage against shared opponents, determined by final standing (total conference win percentage, with ties resolved). 

4. Combined winning percentage of conference opponents. 

5. The team that is tied and holds a superior position according to the Team Rating Score metric, as determined by SportSource Analytics after the regular season concluded. 

A representative will be selected through a drawing conducted by The Commissioner or their designated representative. 

ACC opponents tracker for 2025