For the second straight season, Miami is a 10-win team on the College Football Playoff fringe heading into conference championship weekend.
The Hurricanes (10-2) are at No. 12 in the CFP rankings and need to leapfrog a few teams to get into the field. Miami might be the best team in the Atlantic Coast Conference, but the Hurricanes are not in the ACC championship game.
Several paths remain open for Miami, but they require help from the SEC and Big 12 championship outcomes. The head-to-head argument with No. 10 Notre Dame could also resurface—perhaps prompting the committee to reconsider when the teams are ranked back-to-back.
Unless, of course, head-to-head results don’t matter. Here’s a closer look at all of Miami's College Football Playoff scenarios heading into conference championship weekend.
MORE: College Football Playoff projections
Can Miami still make College Football Playoff?
The Hurricanes are ranked No. 12 in the next-to-last College Football Playoff rankings. There are a few results that could make the Hurricanes' playoff case more interesting. Miami would need to move up to No. 10 to get an at-large berth.
| RANK | TEAM |
| 1 | Ohio State (12-0) |
| 2 | Indiana (12-0) |
| 3 | Georgia (11-1) |
| 4 | Texas Tech (11-1) |
| 5 | Oregon (11-1) |
| 6 | Ole Miss (11-1) |
| 7 | Texas A&M (11-1) |
| 8 | Oklahoma (10-2) |
| 9 | Alabama (10-2) |
| 10 | Notre Dame (10-2) |
| 11 | BYU (11-1) |
| 12 | Miami, Fla. (10-2) |
Texas Tech beats BYU in the Big 12 championship game
If Texas Tech beats BYU, then the Cougars likely would slip behind the Hurricanes in the CFP rankings. That would eliminate BYU. If the Cougars win, then Miami's path to the CFP as an at-large becomes too complicated because the Red Raiders would also likely be in as a second Big 12 team.
Georgia beats Alabama in the SEC championship game
Alabama will be firmly in the field if it beats Georgia in the SEC championship game. If the Crimson Tide lose, then they would be a three-loss team that could fall behind Notre Dame and Miami in the rankings. Would the committee actually do that?
MORE: Tracking every hire, fire and coaching move of the 2025 CFB coaching carousel
Miami two-loss College Football Playoff debates
If the above scenario unfolds, then Miami would have a compelling case to make the College Football Playoff, but it would still be entangled in two arguments over anything else.
Miami (10-2) vs. Notre Dame (10-2)
This debate has been the main talking point of the CFP rankings throughout November. The Hurricanes beat the Irish 27-24 on Aug. 31. Notre Dame's opponents have a combined record of 75-68. Miami's opponents have a combined record of 75-69. The Irish's two losses came to opponents with a combined record of 21-3. The Hurricanes' losses came to opponents with a combined record of 16-8. Is that going to be the justification for keeping Notre Dame out?
Miami (10-2) vs. Alabama (10-3)
This is a tough argument, too, because it will call into question whether the conference championship games should influence the final rankings. Would Miami make up a three-spot gap with the Crimson Tide if they lose? It's difficult to envision a scenario where a team playing in the SEC championship game falls behind a team that doesn't play in the ACC championship game.
MORE: Why does Miami share a stadium with the Dolphins?
Does the ACC championship game impact Miami's CFP chances?
It could launch an interesting last-minute campaign if Duke beats No. 17 Virginia in the ACC championship game and No. 25 James Madison beats Troy in the Sun Belt championship. At that point, the ACC would be in danger of not having a team in the College Football Playoff. Would that sway the committee to put the Hurricanes ahead of the Irish in the final rankings?
Miami strength of schedule
According to ESPN, the Hurricanes rank No. 7 in the Football Power Index. Notre Dame is No. 4, and Alabama is No. 6. Miami and Alabama are separated by 0.7 points by that metric.
Miami strength of record
According to ESPN, the Hurricanes rank No. 14 in strength of record. That is one spot behind Notre Dame at No. 13 and six spots behind Alabama at No. 8.
MORE: Where does Mario Cristobal rank among college football's highest-paid coaches?
Will Miami make College Football Playoff?
Miami or Notre Dame? This could be the final decision the committee has to make. Our projection is that Texas Tech will beat BYU and Georgia will beat Alabama—but not by enough to knock the Crimson Tide out of the CFP. That leaves one more round of Notre Dame vs. Miami for the committee, and this time they could be ranked back-to-back.
Here’s the tough question for Miami fans: If the committee was going to put Miami over Notre Dame, why didn’t they do it on Tuesday?