MIAMI BEACH, Fla. – ESPN analyst Kirk Herbstreit knows when the narrative shifted about No. 10 Miami, coach Mario Cristobal and the ability to close out close games – perhaps for good.
"Winning at Texas A&M," Herbstreit told AllSportsPeople at CFP Championship Media Day at the Miami Convention Center on Saturday. "As tight as that game was and making the plays at the end and getting out with a win created a lot of belief. Then to follow that up with a game against Ohio State as an underdog – nobody thought they could go in and do that. The amount of confidence through Ole Miss coming into this game. So that's why I think they're a dangerous team."
Miami is an 8.5-point underdog against No. 1 Indiana in the College Football Playoff championship game Monday. The Hurricanes won their first two national championships in that role at the 1984 Orange Bowl – a 31-30 victory against No. 1 Nebraska – and the 1988 Orange Bowl – a 20-14 victory against No. 1 Oklahoma.
Now, the Hoosiers are the commanding favorite in the Hurricanes’ backyard at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Fla. Miami is coming off three consecutive College Football Playoff victories as an underdog, and they have come up clutch in the fourth quarter every time.
Who knew coming into the College Football Playoff that Cristobal would be able to lead that turnaround? Be honest …
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How Mario Cristobal changed narrative about Hurricanes
Cristobal’s toughest loss at Miami was on Oct. 7, 2023, when Don Chaney fumbled on a play where Miami had a chance to take a knee and close the game out. Georgia Tech won 23-20 on a 44-yard TD pass from Haynes King to Christian Leary with two seconds remaining. The Hurricanes finished 7-6.
Last year, Miami lost 28-23 at Georgia Tech and blew a 21-0 lead in a 42-38 loss to Syracuse on Nov. 30, 2024. The Hurricanes were left out of the CFP with a 10-2 record before losing 42-41 to No. 18 Iowa State in the Pop-Tarts Bowl. This year, Louisville beat the Hurricanes 24-21 on Oct. 1, and SMU beat Miami on Nov. 1. So, that’s five losses by a combined total of 17 points.
Those failures have led to an unflattering phrase – "Cristobaling" – a cousin of the old "Clemsoning" that followed the Tigers until they beat No. 1 Alabama 35-31 in the CFP championship game on Jan. 9, 2017. Cristobal has done his part to retire that phrase in this CFP run.
A national championship would accomplish that.
"It's been great to watch the resilience of our team – continue to get better and better through these games," Cristobal said. "All the teams that are in the postseason have earned their way there. They have some dominant traits, and for the most part are complete teams.
"Knowing that, you just have to keep playing and understanding the mentality and the mindset that comes with that," he said. "At the end of the day, it can prove to be the difference."
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It has been the difference in three CFP games for Miami.
Carson Beck threw an 11-yard TD pass with Malachi Toney with 1:44 left in the fourth quarter for a 10-3 lead against No. 7 Texas A&M on Dec. 20. Bryce Fitzgerald sealed the victory with an interception in the end zone.
Miami led No. 2 Ohio State 17-14 and had the ball with 5:50 remaining before burying the Buckeyes with a 10-play, 70-yard TD capped by Marty Brown’s 5-yard TD run with 55 seconds left.
Beck led a 15-play, 75-yard TD drive with the game-winning TD run with 18 seconds left in the 31-27 thriller against No. 6 Ole Miss at the Vrbo Fiesta Bowl on Jan. 8.
Three fourth-quarter TD drives have been the difference for the Hurricanes. Imagine that.
"A lot of that comes from our preparation," Beck said. "Just the way that we practice. Coach Cristobal puts us in those situations in practice – throughout fall camp – two-minute drill, red zone, coming out backed up. All these situations we get in a football game, we practice them.
"Coach Cristobal puts us in these situations," Beck said a second time. "I believe this is a huge part of why we're comfortable when those situations arise."
Great coaches put players in position to succeed at the end of games – and that creates belief. Is there any doubt Cristobal has done that in this CFP?
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While those games have been program-altering for Miami, Cristobal knows it’s not just about the fourth quarter.
"Certainly, our guys are getting better at it," Cristobal said. "We have a lot of things that we have to correct from the last game, but we've had a great week of practice – and the next 48 hours – so we're looking forward to this next opportunity."
Those mistakes were penalties against Ole Miss. The Hurricanes had 10 penalties for 74 yards and dropped four potential interceptions. That cannot happen against Indiana. Beck is 56 of 83 (67.4%) for an average of 169.7 passing yards, four TDs and one interception – on a tipped pass – in three CFP games. To this point, Miami hasn’t messed up — and they are playing a Hoosiers’ team that doesn’t mess up. Indiana has committed just eight turnovers and has a FBS-best +21 turnover margin.
Miami also has to win third down. The Hurricanes are 18 of 33 (54.5%) and have held opponents to a 25% conversion rate in three playoff games. Indiana is 20 of 28 (71.4%) on third down and have allowed a 45.8% conversion rate – albeit in two playoff games.
Before we get to the fourth quarter, Miami has to win those battles with its physical rushing attack and a chance to play loose in its backyard. Maybe Cristobal gets Indiana in a physical run-the-ball, stop-the-run fistfight and wins late. It has worked in the distant past.
Will those Orange Bowl ghosts return Monday? Do you believe in that sort of thing?
"They were begging to get in; just to punch their ticket to get into the playoff," Herbstreit said. "You go from that mindset, to now, ‘Told you! Told you!' That changes your perspective as a team. They come into this game not hoping they can beat Indiana. I think they can beat them."