The Indiana Hoosiers are one win away from securing a berth in the Big Ten title game and can do so Thanksgiving weekend when they play the Purdue Boilermakers on Black Friday.
But, by some miracle, the Boilermakers pull off the upset of the year against the assumed No. 2 team in the nation, things get oddly weird fast.
Plain and simple: the Hoosiers control their destiny. A College Football Playoff berth is essentially a lock, as the latest edition of the CFP rankings will be released Tuesday night. With the Ohio State Buckeyes' smackdown against the UCLA Bruins this past Saturday, the Hoosiers will be looking up at No. 1 once again.
Should the Hoosiers falter against Purdue, it opens the door up for the Oregon-USC winner from this Saturday to take the Hoosiers' spot as the loser will be effectively eliminated from Big Ten title contention with a second loss this weekend.
For the Hoosiers to miss the Big Ten title game is highly unlikely. According to ESPN's Playoff Predictor, even if the Hoosiers were to finish 11-1, they still have a 90 percent chance of making the 12-team field and a 60 percent chance to host a home playoff game in Bloomington in the opening round.
Suppose the Hoosiers handle business, though, but lose in the title game to Ohio State or the Michigan Wolverines. In that case, it's above a 99 percent chance they would make the CFP and a 93 percent chance it would get a week of much-needed rest for Curt Cignetti, quarterback Fernando Mendoza and company.
Nonetheless, though, there is not much to worry about for Hoosiers fans. Winning games and letting the on-field product do the talking, like Mendoza recently alluded to, is most important.
“The most important thing for myself is winning the next game against Purdue, which is super important to everybody here in the state of Indiana and all Hoosier Nation," Mendoza told Peegs.com. "Then it’s win the next game after that and the next game after that. And if these awards end up happening, then great."
It's clear Mendoza's 1-0 mindset is a clear energy for how the team is responding on Saturdays. Remaining grounded is going to pay dividends for a Hoosiers team still with a chip on their shoulder from last season, with much to prove.