Indiana playoff scenarios, explained: How win, loss in Big Ten title game would impact CFP rankings

Bill Bender

Indiana playoff scenarios, explained: How win, loss in Big Ten title game would impact CFP rankings image

No. 2 Indiana can complete the perfect regular season under second-year coach Curt Cignetti. 

The Hoosiers (12-0) are ranked No. 2 in the College Football Playoff rankings and are on track to make their second straight College Football Playoff appearance. Indiana is in the Big Ten championship game for the first time in school history. The Hoosiers play No. 1 Ohio State (12-0) at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis on Saturday. Kickoff is scheduled for 8 p.m. ET. The game will be televised on Fox. 

Indiana likely will get a first-round bye in the College Football Playoff as a result. A look at the Hoosiers' College Football Playoff outlook heading into selection weekend.

MORE: Picks against the spread for championship weekend

Is Indiana in the College Football Playoff? 

Yes. Indiana will make the College Football Playoff for the second straight season. The Hoosiers were the No. 10 seed last season. No. 7 Notre Dame beat No. 10 Indiana 27-17 in the first round of the CFP. 

Indiana playoff scenarios 

Here is a look at how Indiana's College Football Playoff seeding could be impacted by the Big Ten championship game Saturday: 

Indiana beats Ohio State in Big Ten championship game 

The Hoosiers are a 4.5-point underdog against Ohio State in the Big Ten championship game. If Indiana beats the Buckeyes, then the Hoosiers would be the No. 1 seed in the College Football Playoff. That also likely means Fernando Mendoza, who is among the Heisman Trophy favorites, would win that award. Second-year coach Curt Cignetti really has backed up that brash talk since his arrival. 

That would give the Big Ten the top seed for the second straight season. Oregon was the only unbeaten team in the regular season in 2024. Indiana would open their College Football Playoff run in the quarterfinals at the Rose Bowl Game on Jan. 1. Indiana has not played in the Rose Bowl since their only appearance in 1968. Georgia might have a claim for the No. 1 seed if they win the SEC championship, but we still think the Hoosiers would get the nod. 

Ohio State beats Indiana in Big Ten championship game 

If Ohio State beats Indiana, then the Hoosiers likely would fall to No. 4 if  No. 3 Georgia and No. 4 Texas Tech win their respective conference championship games. If Indiana were to lose in a close game, then they could stick as the No. 3 seed behind Ohio State and Georgia – the favorite to win the SEC championship game. The Hoosiers will not drop behind No. 5 Oregon in the rankings. Indiana beat the Ducks 30-20 in Eugene on Oct. 11.

A blowout loss would likely put the Hoosiers at No. 4 – where they would play their first-round quarterfinal game at either the Cotton Bowl Classic on Dec. 31 or the Capital One Orange Bowl on Jan. 1. Indiana's weak strength of schedule in the Big Ten would become a point of debate, but it would not prevent the Big Ten from having two teams get a first-round bye. 

MORE: Why the CFP needs to expand to 16 teams

Would other games help Indiana? 

The first-round bye likely will not change, but if either Georgia or Texas Tech loses their respective conference championship game, then Indiana could still lose to Ohio State and have a chance to be a No. 2 seed. The Hoosiers are in a spot where they control their own destiny – and a loss would not be that harmful. 

College Football Playoff bracket 2025

Indiana is the No. 2 seed and projected to play the winner of the first-round matchup between No. 7 Texas A&M and No. 10 Notre Dame in the College Football Playoff quarterfinals.

Senior Writer

Editorial Team