Georgia playoff scenarios, explained: How win, loss in SEC title game would impact CFP rankings

Bill Bender

Georgia playoff scenarios, explained: How win, loss in SEC title game would impact CFP rankings image

No. 3 Georgia meets No. 9 Alabama in the SEC championship game on Saturday. 

The Bulldogs (11-1) can win back-to-back SEC championship games under Kirby Smart. They also might be able to knock the Crimson Tide (10-2) out of the 12-team College Football Playoff, which will announce the field on Sunday. Georgia and Alabama face off at 4 p.m. ET at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta. The game will be televised on ABC. 

Georgia is 1-7 against Alabama under Smart, and that includes a 24-21 loss on Sept. 27 and three head-to-head losses in the SEC championship game. 

Georgia's playoff seeding could vary widely based on the result of this matchup. A look at the Bulldogs' College Football Playoff outlook heading into selection weekend.

MORE: Picks against the spread for championship weekend

Is Georgia in the College Football Playoff? 

Yes. Georgia will make the College Football Playoff for the fifth time under Smart whether it wins or loses the SEC championship game. The Bulldogs were the No. 2 seed in the CFP in 2024. Georgia lost 23-10 to No. 7 Notre Dame in the quarterfinal round. 

Georgia playoff scenarios 

Here is a look at how Georgia's College Football Playoff seeding could be impacted by the SEC championship game Saturday: 

Georgia beats Alabama in SEC championship game 

The Bulldogs would more than likely be the No. 2 seed again based on winning the championship. The loser of the Big Ten championship game between No. 1 Ohio State and No. 2 Indiana would likely fall to at least No. 3. The Bulldogs' first CFP game would be in the quarterfinals at the Sugar Bowl.

In the CFP era, the SEC champion has been ranked lower than No. 2 just two times. One-loss Georgia was the No. 3 seed after winning the SEC championship in 2017. One-loss Alabama was the No. 4 seed in 2023. 

Would Georgia have a case for the No. 1 seed at that point? If Indiana beat Ohio State, then it might become at least a topic of conversation. Georgia would have five victories against ranked teams if it beats Alabama in the SEC championship game. We still think the Bulldogs would be No. 2, but it's closer than it looks.

MORE: Latest College Football Playoff rankings

Alabama beats Georgia in SEC championship game 

How far would the Bulldogs fall with a loss to the Crimson Tide? Alabama could jump all the way up to No. 4 based on winning the SEC championship game. We think Georgia would drop to either No. 5 or No. 6 while staying ahead of one-loss SEC teams in No. 6 Ole Miss (11-1) and No. 7 (Texas A&M). We don't see the committee punishing the Bulldogs that much for playing in the SEC championship game, and they could stay ahead of No. 5 Oregon. A loss means Georgia would host a first-round playoff game at Sanford Stadium on either Dec. 19 or Dec. 20. If Alabama earns a byei, it would have to overtake Texas Tech to get in the Sugar Bowl. The Tide would likely start in the Orange Bowl or Cotton Bowl.

MORE: Alabama is the elephant in the CFP committee room

Would other games help Georgia? 

It would not hurt if the Big Ten championship game was decisive either way. A close game between the Buckeyes and Hoosiers could prompt the committee to keep those teams in the top two spots. No. 4 Texas Tech (11-1) also has one loss. The Red Raiders likely would not jump the Bulldogs, but a loss or a close game against No. 11 BYU (11-1) also would not hurt. Georgia, however, really controls its own destiny as far as a first-round bye is concerned. 

College Football Playoff bracket 2025

Georgia is the No. 3 seed and projected to play the winner of the first-round matchup between No. 6 Texas A&M and No. 11 Virginia in the College Football Playoff quarterfinals based on the latest CFP rankings.

BENDER: Breaking down the Miami-Notre Dame debate

Senior Writer

Senior Editor