A talented UConn squad faces its first test of March Madness 2023 against Rick Pitino and the MAAC champion Iona Gaels.
The fourth-seeded Huskies enter the dance on an impressive run of nine wins in their last 11 games. After a rough stretch in early 2023, they appear to be getting hot at just the right time heading into the tournament. With two first-round exits in the last two years, Dan Hurley's squad is looking to finally prove it belongs on college basketball's biggest stage.
Pitino and the 13th-seeded Gaels cruised to a win in the Metro Atlantic Tournament to clinch a spot in this year's field, but the competition is about to get a whole lot tougher. They'll need to be at their very best to pull off the upset and advance to the second round.
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Will UConn take care of business and win a first-round game for the first time in seven years? Or will Pitino and his plucky Iona squad bust some brackets with an upset victory? We have you covered with all the information you need to make your pick:
UConn vs. Iona odds
The 4-vs.-13 matchup is scheduled to tip off at 4:30 p.m. ET on Friday, March 17 from MVP Arena in Albany, N.Y. The game will be broadcast on TBS, with Spero Dedes, Deb Antonelli and AJ Ross on the call from New York's capital city.
According to odds from BetMGM, UConn has opened as the clear favorite against underdog Iona.
- Odds: UConn (-9.5)
- Date: Friday, March 17
- Time: 4:30 p.m. ET
- TV: TBS
- Arena: MVP Arena, Albany, N.Y.
EXPERT PICKS: DeCourcy (Alabama) | Bender (Kansas) | Fagan (Marquette) | Pohnl (Kansas)
UConn (25-8, 13-7 Big East)
The Huskies started the season on a tear, winning their first 14 games and rising to No. 2 in the national rankings. That win streak included impressive victories over Alabama, Iowa State, Oklahoma State and Oregon. But the start of 2023 coincided with a major slump, and a stretch of six losses in eight games sent the team plummeting down the ranks.
The good news for UConn fans is that slump seems to be over. The team managed to right the ship and close out the regular season with five straight wins. The last time we saw it in action was in a narrow 70-68 loss to Marquette in the Big East Tournament semifinals.
The Huskies are one of the most balanced teams in this year's field and can beat opponents in a number of different ways. They excel at offensive rebounding, with the second-best rebounding margin in the nation. Forward Adama Sanogo is capable of dominating the paint, and perimeter playmakers like Jordan Hawkins and Tristen Newton can rain threes. If the offense can get into a rhythm, this is a team with legitimate Final Four potential.
- NET ranking: 8
- KenPom ranking: 4
- Quad 1 record: 7-6
- Quad 2 record: 6-1
- Quad 3 record: 4-1
- Quad 4 record: 8-0
- Offensive efficiency ranking: 10
- Defensive efficiency: 14
Key players
Adama Sanogo, F, Jr. (6-9, 245): 16.8 ppg, 7.3 rpg, 1.3 apg
Jordan Hawkins, G, So. (6-5, 195): 16.1 ppg, 3.9 rpg, 1.4 apg
Tristen Newton, G, Sr. (6-5, 190): 10.2 ppg, 4.2 rpg, 4.2 apg
Iona (27-7, 17-3 Metro Atlantic)
Rick Pitino is back in the dance after leading Iona to its second tournament appearance in three years. The Gaels stormed through the MAAC Tournament, winning by double digits in every game to punch their ticket to March Madness.
Their biggest strength is on defense, where they've limited opposing teams to a 3-point percentage of just 29.2 percent — the seventh best mark in the country. They also rank 15th in the country in defensive efficiency.
But that's not to say they're slouches on offense. With three players averaging more than 15 points per game (Clayton Jr., Jenkins, Joseph), the team from New Rochelle, N.Y., can score with just about anyone.
However, an 0-3 record in Quadrant 1 and 2 games is a worrying stat, and they haven't faced a team anywhere near as good as UConn all season. It will be a very tough test for Pitino and his squad to advance to the second round.
- NET ranking: 58
- KenPom ranking: 74
- Quad 1 record: 0-1
- Quad 2 record: 0-2
- Quad 3 record: 7-2
- Quad 4 record: 20-2
- Offensive efficiency ranking: 32
- Defensive efficiency: 15
Key players
Walter Clayton Jr., G, So. (6-2, 195): 16.9 ppg, 4.3 rpg, 3.2 apg
Daniss Jenkins, G, Jr. (6-3, 175): 15.6 ppg, 4.4 rpg, 4.9 apg
Nelly Junior Joseph, F, Jr. (6-9, 240): 15.1 ppg, 9.4 rpg, 1.1 apg
HISTORY OF UPSETS BY SEED:
15 vs. 2 | 14 vs. 3 | 13 vs. 4 | 12 vs. 5
UConn vs. Iona prediction
The keys to the game for UConn will be winning the rebounding battle and keeping Iona's defense on its heels. The interior battle between Sanogo and Joseph should be a fun one to watch, but with many experts projecting Sanogo to be a first-round NBA draft pick, you have to give him the edge. Hawkins' playmaking ability on offense could also be an X-factor for the Huskies.
Iona will need to stifle UConn's dynamic offense to have any chance of an upset. Good perimeter defense, balanced scoring and staying out of foul trouble are all crucial for the Gaels.
Go with UConn here. As tempting as it is to take a chance on Pitino and the Gaels to pull off the upset, the Huskies are getting hot at the right time and look primed for a run this March. Iona simply hasn't proven itself against top opponents yet this season, and it's too risky to expect them to do so for the first time in the NCAA Tournament.
The winner will move on to face either 5-seed Saint Mary's (a potential Gaels vs. Gaels matchup, if Iona were to win) or 12-seed VCU in the second round.
History of 4 vs. 13 matchups in NCAA Tournament
Overall, No. 4 seeds have a 121-31 advantage over No. 13 seeds since the NCAA Tournament bracket expanded to 64 teams in 1985.
While those odds don't seem great for No. 13 seeds, there were two that were able to pull off upsets over No. 4 seeds back in 2021. With that being said, all No. 4 seeds advanced in 2022.
Below is a breakdown of the wins 13-seeds have enjoyed over 4-seeds since the tournament's expansion in 1985:
| Year | Result | Score |
| 1985 | Navy def. LSU | 78-55 |
| 1987 | Missouri State def. Clemson | 65-60 |
| 1987 | Xavier def. Missouri | 70-69 |
| 1988 | Richmond def. Indiana | 72-69 |
| 1989 | Middle Tennessee def. Florida State | 97-83 |
| 1991 | Penn State def. UCLA | 74-69 |
| 1992 | Southwestern Louisiana def. Oklahoma | 87-83 |
| 1993 | Southern def. Georgia Tech | 93-78 |
| 1995 | Manhattan def. Oklahoma | 77-67 |
| 1996 | Princeton def. UCLA | 43-41 |
| 1998 | Valparaiso def. Ole Miss | 70-69 |
| 1999 | Oklahoma def. Arizona | 61-60 |
| 2001 | Indiana State def. Oklahoma | 70-68 |
| 2001 | Kent State def. Indiana | 77-73 |
| 2002 | UNC Wilmington def. USC | 93-89 |
| 2003 | Tulsa def. Dayton | 84-71 |
| 2005 | Vermont def. Syracuse | 60-57 |
| 2006 | Bradley def. Kansas | 77-73 |
| 2008 | Siena def. Vanderbilt | 83-62 |
| 2008 | San Diego def. UConn | 70-69 |
| 2009 | Cleveland State def. Wake Forest | 84-69 |
| 2010 | Murray State def. Vanderbilt | 66-65 |
| 2011 | Morehead State def. Louisville | 62-61 |
| 2012 | Ohio def. Michigan | 65-60 |
| 2013 | La Salle def. Kansas State | 63-61 |
| 2016 | Hawaii def. California | 77-66 |
| 2018 | Buffalo def. Arizona | 89-69 |
| 2018 | Marshall def. Wichita State | 81-75 |
| 2019 | UC Irvine def. Kansas State | 70-64 |
| 2021 | North Texas def. Purdue | 78-69 (OT) |
| 2021 | Ohio def. Virginia | 62-58 |