Tennessee or Louisiana-Lafayette? How to pick 4 vs. 13 matchup in 2023 March Madness bracket

While 4-vs-13 matchups aren't necessarily the trendiest upset picks in the Round of 64, there are often matchups that deserve a double- or triple-take. The matchup between the Tennessee Volunteers and Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns qualifies.

13-seed Louisiana earned an at-large bid to this year's tournament by winning the Sun Belt Conference tournament championship while 4-seed Tennessee's at-large bid was earned through an impressive body of work throughout the course of the regular season.

Impressive of a season it was for Tennessee (23-10, 11-7 SEC), the team is picking up the pieces as it looks to bounce back from adversity in the form of a season-ending injury to a key player. Louisiana (23-7, 13-5 Sun Belt), on the other hand, enters the tournament with momentum on its side.

Here's everything you need to know about the matchup between Tennessee and Louisiana, including rankings, key players, season breakdowns and more:

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Tennessee vs. Louisiana-Lafayette odds

Tennessee opened as heavy favorites over Louisiana-Lafayette. The Volunteers are expected to beat the Ragin' Cajuns by at least five possessions, according to odds from BetMGM.

• Odds: Tennessee (-10.5)
• Date: Thursday, March 16
• Time: 9:40 p.m.
• TV: CBS
• Arena: Amway Center, Orlando

Tennessee (23-10, 11-7 SEC)

This marks the fifth tournament appearance in eight seasons under head coach Rick Barnes.

Tennessee, the preseason No. 11 team in the nation, has been a mainstay in the AP top 25 all season, peaking at No. 2 in early February. Per KenPom, the Volunteers feature the nation's second-best defense behind only UCLA.

The Vols had no Quad 3 or Quad 4 losses this season and built up their tournament resume with wins over USC, Kansas, Maryland, Texas, Auburn and Alabama. 

Tennessee has lost two of its last three games after losing All-SEC First Teamer Zai Zeigler to a season-ending ACL injury. The team will look to rally for Ziegler, entering the NCAA Tournament after an eight-point loss to Missouri in the SEC Quarterfinals.

• NET ranking: 4
• KenPom ranking: 5
• Quad 1 record: 7-7
• Quad 2 record: 3-3
• Quad 3 record: 6-0
• Quad 4 record: 7-0
• Offensive efficiency ranking: 29
• Defensive efficiency ranking: 2

Key players

Santiago Vescovi, G., Sr. (6-3, 192): 12.9 ppg, 4.6 rpg, 3.0 apg

Olivier Nkamhoua, F., Sr. (6-9, 236): 10.6 ppg, 5.0 rpg, 2.0 apg

Julian Phillips, F., Fr, (6-8, 198): 9.0 ppg, 5.0 rpg, 1.5 apg

Josiah-Jordan James, G., Sr. (6-6, 224): 10.2 ppg, 4.7 rpg, 1.7 apg

Tyreke Key, G., Gr. (6-2, 211): 8.4 ppg, 2.6 rpg, 1.7 apg

Louisiana-Lafayette (23-7, 13-5 Sun Belt)

The Ragin' Cajuns are back in the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 2014. They're seeking their first tournament win since 1992.

Louisiana is riding a five-game win streak into the tournament, three of which came during their run to the Sun Belt Conference championship. In the title game, the Ragin' Cajuns held on for a five-point win to end South Alabama's Cinderella bid.

Widen the lens outside of Lousiana's five-game streak and the team has won 17 of its last 20 games after suffering a three-game skid in late December. The Ragin' Cajuns went 0-2 against teams in the field, suffering a 12-point loss to Drake in late November and a 28-point loss to Texas a month later.

Things are clicking for Bob Marlin's Louisiana team at the right time, and this group can score with the best of them.

• NET ranking: 89
• KenPom ranking: 92
• Quad 1 record: 0-2
• Quad 2 record: 1-3
• Quad 3 record: 10-1
• Quad 4 record: 12-1
• Offensive efficiency ranking: 57
• Defensive efficiency ranking: 146

Key players

Jordan Brown, F., Jr. (6-11, 235): 19.4 ppg, 8.7 rpg, 1.8 apg

Greg Williams, G., Sr. (6-3, 200): 13.1 ppg, 3.5 rpg, 1.3 apg

Terence Lewis, F., Sr. (6-7, 208): 11.0 ppg, 7.5 rpg, 1.0 apg

Themus Fulks, G., So. (6-1, 185): 9.4 ppg, 5.9 apg, 2.9 rpg

Kentrell Garnett, G., So. (6-1, 165): 6.7 ppg, 2.1 rpg, 0.8 apg

Tennessee vs. Louisiana-Lafayette prediction

During CBS' Selection Sunday program, Louisiana was declared as a prime candidate to earn the upset over a Tennessee team that will be without a key player. Still, the Volunteers are highly favored in this game.

It's true that Tennessee has not been the same without Ziegler — replacing an all-league player is no easy task.

With respect to the matchup against Louisiana, Tennessee will have its hands full on the block. The Ragin' Cajuns are led by 6-foot-11 big man Jordan Brown, who turned in 10 double-doubles this season.

Brown is no stranger to the big stage — the 2018 McDonald's All-American made an NCAA Tournament appearance while at Nevada and during his stop at Arizona, was named Pac-12 Sixth Man of the Year. 

Tennessee's interior duo of Jonas Aidoo and Uros Plavsic will have their hands full given Brown's combination of size and skill.

On the perimeter, Santiago Vescovi sets things up for the Vols as there isn't much that the senior hasn't done or seen at this point in his career. If Vescovi can keep things in order for his team, Tennessee shouldn't be rattled despite being down a key player.

The game could come down to whether or not a player like Jamai Mashack, Josiah-Jordan James or Tyreke Key can step up to give Tennessee an advantage at the guard position.

History of 4 vs. 13 matchups in NCAA Tournament

Since the NCAA Tournament bracket expanded to 64 teams in 1985, No. 4 seeds hold a 121-131 advantage over No. 13 seeds. History gives Tennessee a 79.6 percent chance of winning against Louisiana.

Tennessee is a heavy favorite, but it won't be overlooking Louisiana, especially given the extra attention that will now be placed on this matchup.

Below is a breakdown of the wins 13-seeds have enjoyed over 4-seeds since the tournament's expansion in 1985: