The march has arrived.
There have been 68 teams chosen to compete in the NCAA Division I Men's Basketball Tournament. Sixty-eight teams that on Sunday all have lofty aspirations of being the one with the confetti raining down as "One Shining Moment" plays in the background.
This is the chance where everyone gets to try and be a basketball expert. Given the improbability of picking a perfect bracket, it's safe to say everyone has about the same chances of getting one all correct. But The Sporting News is here to help sort through some of the madness.
SN's MARCH MADNESS HQ
Live NCAA bracket news | TV schedule | Printable PDF
TSN is rolling out its projection model that evaluates the field and determines which teams are the most likely to come out of each matchup. The model is based on composite ratings from Sports-Reference's SRS ratings, Pomeroy, ESPN BPI and Massey Ratings. The model then runs a Monte Carlo simulation of the tournament 20,000 times and records the outcomes for each result.
All odds listed are from BetMGM.
Here is a look at the current odds for the entire 2024 March Madness bracket, as well as what The Sporting News' model says about the field.
March Madness odds 2024
The reigning champion reigns supreme. Well, at least in odds according to BetMGM.
Connecticut enters as the favorite to win it all, with fellow No. 1 seeds Purdue and Houston not far behind.
| Region | Team | Seed | Odds |
| East | Connecticut | 1 | +350 |
| South | Houston | 1 | +600 |
| Midwest | Houston | 1 | +650 |
| West | Arizona | 2 | +1100 |
| West | North Carolina | 1 | +1300 |
Here's a look at the teams with the best odds for each seed in the tournament:
| Seed | Region | Team | Odds |
| 1 | East | Connecticut | +350 |
| 2 | West | Arizona | +1100 |
| 3 | South/Midwest | Kentucky/Creighton | +2500 |
| 4 | East | Auburn | +1700 |
| 5 | Midwest | Gonzaga | +6000 |
| 6 | East | BYU | +6600 |
| 7 | South | Florida | +6000 |
| 8 | East | Florida Atlantic | +10000 |
| 9 | West | Michigan State | +10000 |
| 10 | South/West | Colorado/Nevada | +15000 |
| 11 | West | New Mexico | +12500 |
| 12 | South | Grand Canyon | +35000 |
| 13 | East | Yale | +50000 |
| 14 | East/Midwest/South | Morehead State/Akron/Oakland | +100000 |
| 15 | West/South | Long Beach State/Western Kentucky | +100000 |
| 16 | All | All | +200000 |
The beasts are in the East. Of the 16 seeds, seven (including ties) are coming from the East. The South also has seven, though five of those come in double-digit seeds while three of the top six seeds are from the East.
Like BetMGM, the model sees the three non-West No. 1 seeds as the teams to beat, though it has Houston as the title favorite over Connecticut. The model is considerably down on North Carolina, which ranks eighth overall in national championship odds, trailing three No. 1 seeds, three No. 2 seeds and a No. 4 seed.
| Region | Team | Seed | Title Win Percent | Implied Odds |
| South | Houston | 1 | 17.5% | +472 |
| East | Connecticut | 1 | 13.5% | +643 |
| Midwest | Purdue | 1 | 13% | +672 |
| West | Arizona | 2 | 7.1% | +1304 |
| East | Iowa State | 2 | 5.9% | +1599 |
The model is fairly high on Iowa State relative to BetMGM, which has the Cyclones as having the eighth-highest title odds. Otherwise, the top four are the same, just a bit reshuffled.
EXPERT PICKS: DeCourcy (UConn) | Bender (UConn) | Iyer (UConn) | Yanchulis (South Carolina women)
NCAA Tournament odds to advance by region
Here is a look at the odds for each team to advance past each region, as well as the projected run for each team based on The Sporting News' model.
It should be noted teams in the play-in or facing play-in teams will have their odds and model projections updated once the games are concluded. Odds for teams to reach the Sweet Sixteen and Elite Eight will be updated as they are released, as will moneyline odds for each matchup.
East
It's going to be a challenge for everyone in the East in the same region as No. 1 Connecticut. If anyone is going to challenge the Huskies, it appears the books are saying No. 4 Auburn or No. 2 Iowa State.
| Seed | Team | Round of 32 | Sweet Sixteen | Elite Eight | Final Four | Title winner |
| 1 | Connecticut | -10000 | -650 | -175 | -110 | +350 |
| 2 | Iowa State | -2500 | -300 | +120 | +425 | +1800 |
| 3 | Illinois | -800 | -145 | +250 | +650 | +3000 |
| 4 | Auburn | -1000 | -250 | +275 | +375 | +1700 |
| 5 | San Diego State | -275 | +250 | +900 | +2000 | +10000 |
| 6 | BYU | -550 | +150 | +450 | +1600 | +6600 |
| 7 | Washington State | +100 | +425 | +1000 | +3000 | +15000 |
| 8 | Florida Atlantic | -155 | +750 | +1400 | +2000 | +10000 |
| 9 | Northwestern | +125 | +800 | +1800 | +5000 | +25000 |
| 10 | Drake | -120 | +575 | +1400 | +5000 | +25000 |
| 11 | Duquesne | +400 | +900 | +4000 | +10000 | +50000 |
| 12 | UAB | +220 | +2200 | +6000 | +12500 | +75000 |
| 13 | Yale | +625 | +1000 | +5000 | +10000 | +50000 |
| 14 | Morehead State | +550 | +1800 | +8000 | +20000 | +100000 |
| 15 | South Dakota State | +1100 | +3000 | +20000 | +40000 | +200000 |
| 16 | Stetson | +2000 | +8000 | +20000 | +40000 | +200000 |
Though Auburn and Iowa State are identical in title odds, the Cyclones are significantly heavier favorites to win their matchup with No. 15 South Dakota State than Auburn is over No. 13 Yale. That would seem to indicate if the Tigers can avoid the first-round upset, they could be a tougher foe to stop.
The model likes Auburn as a title contender, even if acknowledging its tougher matchup against Yale in the first round. It also sees No. 6 BYU as a potential sleeper in this region.
There are no upsets projected over 50 percent in probability, but it's a near coin toss for both No. 9 Northwestern vs. No. 8 Florida Atlantic and No. 10 Drake vs. No. 7 Washington State.
| Seed | Team | Round of 32 | Sweet Sixteen | Elite Eight | Final Four | Championship | Title winner |
| 1 | Connecticut | 96.6% | 78.1% | 53.6% | 33.8% | 22.3% | 13.5% |
| 2 | Iowa State | 94.2% | 70.2% | 43.8% | 21.1% | 12.8% | 5.9% |
| 3 | Illinois | 86.5% | 52.0% | 26.4% | 11.4% | 5.3% | 2.4% |
| 4 | Auburn | 83.0% | 63.5% | 30.2% | 17.2% | 10.6% | 4.9% |
| 5 | San Diego State | 73.5% | 26.5% | 7.3% | 3.2% | 1.0% | 0.4% |
| 6 | BYU | 77.1% | 38.3% | 18.0% | 6.9% | 3.2% | 1.3% |
| 7 | Washington State | 54.8% | 17.0% | 6.0% | 2.1% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| 8 | Florida Atlantic | 51.1% | 11.1% | 4.1% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
| 9 | Northwestern | 48.9% | 10.3% | 3.3% | 1.4% | 0.3% | 0.2% |
| 10 | Drake | 45.2% | 11.9% | 3.9% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| 11 | Duquesne | 22.9% | 6.3% | 1.4% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 12 | UAB | 26.5% | 4.6% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 13 | Yale | 17.0% | 5.4% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 14 | Morehead State | 13.5% | 3.4% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 15 | South Dakota State | 5.8% | 1.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 16 | Stetson | 3.4% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
REGION-BY-REGION GUIDES: South | Midwest | West | East
Midwest
Is anyone going to challenge Purdue? Tennessee might have the second-best title odds of any No. 2 seed, but the Boilermakers are still considerable favorites to win the Midwest region.
| Seed | Team | Round of 32 | Sweet Sixteen | Elite Eight | Final Four | Title winner |
| 1 | Purdue | TBD | -450 | -150 | +150 | +650 |
| 2 | Tennessee | -3000 | -200 | +135 | +350 | +1500 |
| 3 | Creighton | -1100 | -190 | +200 | +475 | +2500 |
| 4 | Kansas | -350 | +100 | +500 | +800 | +4000 |
| 5 | Gonzaga | -300 | +135 | +450 | +1000 | +6000 |
| 6 | South Carolina | -120 | +375 | +1200 | +4000 | +20000 |
| 7 | Texas | -145 | +300 | +600 | +2500 | +12500 |
| 8 | Utah State | +155 | +775 | +1600 | +2500 | +20000 |
| 9 | TCU | -190 | +575 | +1000 | +3000 | +15000 |
| 10 | Colorado State | +120 | +600 | +2000 | +5000 | +15000 |
| 11 | Oregon | +100 | +450 | +1400 | +5000 | +25000 |
| 12 | McNeese State | +230 | +550 | +2500 | +8000 | +35000 |
| 13 | Samford | +260 | +1150 | +3500 | +20000 | +100000 |
| 14 | Akron | +650 | +1200 | +5000 | +20000 | +100000 |
| 15 | Saint Peter's | +1400 | +8000 | +20000 | +40000 | +200000 |
| 16 | Grambling State/Montana State | TBD | TBD | +20000 | +40000 | +200000 |
There are a few upsets to see bookmakers picking in this region. That would be No. 11 Oregon topping No. 6 South Carolina and No. 9 TCU over No. 8 Utah State. But even No. 12 McNeese and No. 13 Samford are hardly listed as long-shots to win their first-round clashes against No. 5 Gonzaga and No. 4 Kansas, respectively.
The model likes Kansas and Gonzaga as still steady favorites, but it likes the Ducks to beat the Gamecocks and the Horned Frogs to top the Aggies, even if only slightly.
It also has the Ducks as having the second-best title odds for any team seeded at No. 11 or higher, topped only by New Mexico in the West.
| Seed | Team | Round of 32 | Sweet Sixteen | Elite Eight | Final Four | Championship | Title winner |
| 1 | Purdue | 98.1% | 76.3% | 56.2% | 37.4% | 22.6% | 13.0% |
| 2 | Tennessee | 94.8% | 65.5% | 40.9% | 20.3% | 10.3% | 5.4% |
| 3 | Creighton | 84.8% | 57.6% | 31.3% | 14.5% | 6.2% | 2.8% |
| 4 | Kansas | 72.8% | 42.5% | 13.6% | 6.7% | 2.6% | 1.0% |
| 5 | Gonzaga | 73.3% | 41.6% | 16.8% | 7.5% | 2.8% | 1.3% |
| 6 | South Carolina | 51.4% | 19.8% | 6.7% | 1.8% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
| 7 | Texas | 59.3% | 22.6% | 10.6% | 3.8% | 1.7% | 0.4% |
| 8 | Utah State | 43.6% | 8.7% | 3.8% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| 9 | TCU | 56.4% | 14.9% | 6.4% | 2.6% | 0.7% | 0.3% |
| 10 | Colorado State | 40.7% | 11.3% | 4.2% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| 11 | Oregon | 48.6% | 17.7% | 5.5% | 1.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| 12 | McNeese State | 26.7% | 8.6% | 2.0% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 13 | Samford | 27.2% | 7.3% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 14 | Akron | 15.2% | 4.8% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 15 | Saint Peter's | 5.2% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 16 | Montana State | TBD | TBD | TBD | TBD | TBD | TBD |
| 16 | Grambling State | TBD | TBD | TBD | TBD | TBD | TBD |
UPSET PICKS: 10 seeds | 11 seeds | 12 seeds | 13 seeds
South
Like the East, BetMGM currently has no underdogs projected to win the first round and lists the No. 1 seed as the clear favorite. Outside of Connecticut, no other No. 1 seed has better odds of advancing to the Final Four than Houston.
| Seed | Team | Round of 32 | Sweet Sixteen | Elite Eight | Final Four | Title winner |
| 1 | Houston | -5000 | -400 | -140 | +125 | +600 |
| 2 | Marquette | -1600 | -135 | +200 | +550 | +2500 |
| 3 | Kentucky | -1200 | -145 | +275 | +550 | +2500 |
| 4 | Duke | -750 | -115 | +375 | +550 | +3000 |
| 5 | Wisconsin | -250 | +200 | +700 | +1800 | +8000 |
| 6 | Texas Tech | -225 | +200 | +500 | +2200 | +12500 |
| 7 | Florida | TBD | +230 | +500 | +1500 | +6000 |
| 8 | Nebraska | -115 | +550 | +1000 | +3000 | +15000 |
| 9 | Texas A&M | -105 | +725 | +1600 | +4000 | +20000 |
| 10 | Boise State/Colorado | TBD | +1100/+625 | +2000/TBD | +6000/+4000 | +30000/+20000 |
| 11 | NC State | +180 | +500 | +1400 | +4000 | +20000 |
| 12 | James Madison | +195 | +700 | +2500 | +8000 | +35000 |
| 13 | Vermont | +525 | +1050 | +5000 | +20000 | +100000 |
| 14 | Oakland | +725 | +1900 | +8000 | +20000 | +100000 |
| 15 | Western Kentucky | +850 | +1900 | +8000 | +20000 | +100000 |
| 16 | Longwood | +1600 | +8000 | +20000 | +40000 | +200000 |
There might not be any upset picks, but No. 12 James Madison has intriguing upset potential at +165 odds over No. 5 Wisconsin. And No. 9 Texas A&M is only a slight underdog against No. 8 Nebraska. The No. 7 Gators have better odds to win the national championship than anyone below a No. 4 seed.
Oddsmakers might like the Gators, but the model does not. The model sees the Gators as being on potential upset watch in the first round whenever that matchup is determined, and as a result, they have lackluster championship odds.
Among potential sleepers in this region, it sees perennial title-contender No. 4 Duke as the team to watch, giving them the next-best chances of winning a championship and the third-best odds in the region to advance to the championship.
| Seed | Team | Round of 32 | Sweet Sixteen | Elite Eight | Final Four | Championship | Title winner |
| 1 | Houston | 96.6% | 79.2% | 56.6% | 44.3% | 29.0% | 17.5% |
| 2 | Marquette | 88.2% | 53.5% | 33.0% | 13.3% | 5.6% | 2.8% |
| 3 | Kentucky | 83.4% | 47.5% | 22.7% | 8.3% | 3.7% | 1.4% |
| 4 | Duke | 81.8% | 52.7% | 21.4% | 11.5% | 5.8% | 2.9% |
| 5 | Wisconsin | 65.3% | 32.0% | 9.9% | 5.3% | 1.9% | 0.8% |
| 6 | Texas Tech | 62.3% | 33.1% | 15.5% | 5.0% | 1.6% | 0.6% |
| 7 | Florida | 52.1% | 23.7% | 12.3% | 3.8% | 1.6% | 0.5% |
| 8 | Nebraska | 52.9% | 10.8% | 5.5% | 2.3% | 0.5% | 0.3% |
| 9 | Texas A&M | 47.1% | 9.3% | 4.0% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| 10 | Boise State | TBD | TBD | TBD | TBD | TBD | TBD |
| 10 | Colorado | TBD | TBD | TBD | TBD | TBD | TBD |
| 11 | NC State | 37.7% | 16.2% | 5.8% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| 12 | James Madison | 34.7% | 10.6% | 2.1% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 13 | Vermont | 18.2% | 4.7% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 14 | Oakland | 16.6% | 3.2% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 15 | Western Kentucky | 11.8% | 2.5% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 16 | Longwood | 3.4% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
West
PRINTABLE: Download a 2024 March Madness bracket here
Bookmakers are low on North Carolina, which has the worst odds of any No. 1 seed to win the national championship. It's not even the favorite to emerge from the West region — that would be No. 2 Arizona.
| Seed | Team | Round of 32 | Sweet Sixteen | Elite Eight | Final Four | Title winner |
| 1 | North Carolina | N/A | -200 | +120 | +300 | +1300 |
| 2 | Arizona | -3000 | -350 | -105 | +260 | +1100 |
| 3 | Baylor | -1400 | -135 | +375 | +675 | +3500 |
| 4 | Alabama | -500 | +100 | +350 | +800 | +4000 |
| 5 | Saint Mary's | -250 | +150 | +450 | +1400 | +6600 |
| 6 | Clemson | +115 | +350 | +1400 | +3000 | +15000 |
| 7 | Dayton | +100 | +600 | +1200 | +4000 | +20000 |
| 8 | Mississippi State | +100 | +400 | +900 | +3000 | +15000 |
| 9 | Michigan State | -120 | +275 | +700 | +2200 | +10000 |
| 10 | Nevada | -120 | +475 | +1000 | +3000 | +15000 |
| 11 | New Mexico | -140 | +250 | +1000 | +2500 | +12500 |
| 12 | Grand Canyon | +200 | +500 | +1600 | +6600 | +30000 |
| 13 | Charleston | +375 | +1400 | +5000 | +20000 | +100000 |
| 14 | Colgate | +775 | +1900 | +8000 | +40000 | +200000 |
| 15 | Long Beach State | +1300 | +3500 | +8000 | +20000 | +100000 |
| 16 | Wagner | N/A | N/A | +20000 | +40000 | +200000 |
After the Tar Heels and Wildcats, it's a bit more wide-open for who will be the next most serious challenge. It could be No. 4 Alabama, but the Crimson Tide are only -650 favorites to top No. 13 Charleston. And how about three upset picks in the odds? No. 9 Michigan State, No. 10 Nevada and No. 11 New Mexico are all favorites to win their respective matchups.
The model also is projecting a few upsets, but not all the same. It has the Lobos as slight favorites over No. 6 Clemson and the Spartans as having the edge over No. 8 Mississippi State.
As far as title odds go, New Mexico has the best chance for any team in the double-digit seeding range. Like the oddsmakers, Arizona is the favorite from this region, but the Wildcats are also the only top-four team in odds to come short of double digits, indicating this could be a wide-open region.
| Seed | Team | Round of 32 | Sweet Sixteen | Elite Eight | Final Four | Championship | Title winner |
| 1 | North Carolina | 97.6% | 60.0% | 35.8% | 18.4% | 8.2% | 4.1% |
| 2 | Arizona | 94.6% | 69.6% | 46.6% | 26.8% | 13.8% | 7.1% |
| 3 | Baylor | 86.4% | 53.1% | 24.6% | 13.9% | 6.0% | 2.3% |
| 4 | Alabama | 89.1% | 54.8% | 28.7% | 15.3% | 6.8% | 2.8% |
| 5 | Saint Mary's | 66.7% | 31.7% | 13.7% | 6.2% | 2.2% | 0.8% |
| 6 | Clemson | 51.5% | 22.6% | 7.6% | 3.0% | 0.8% | 0.3% |
| 7 | Dayton | 53.3% | 15.8% | 7.2% | 2.8% | 0.7% | 0.3% |
| 8 | Mississippi State | 45.4% | 16.3% | 7.0% | 2.4% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| 9 | Michigan State | 54.6% | 23.5% | 10.9% | 4.5% | 2.0% | 0.6% |
| 10 | Nevada | 46.7% | 13.7% | 6.0% | 2.0% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| 11 | New Mexico | 48.5% | 21.5% | 7.6% | 3.2% | 0.8% | 0.3% |
| 12 | Grand Canyon | 33.3% | 10.8% | 3.6% | 1.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| 13 | Charleston | 10.9% | 2.6% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 14 | Colgate | 13.6% | 2.8% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 15 | Long Beach State | 5.4% | 1.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 16 | Wagner | 2.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |