Final Four predictions for March Madness: Teams with the best odds to reach Houston in 2023

When it comes time to fill out the brackets, the most pivotal predictions are the Final Four.

Miss an upset here and there, no problem. But when it comes to winning bracket pools, the Final Four is where it matters most. If you have three teams or more in the Final Four, chances are you're looking pretty good in the pool standings. If you don't have any, that could be a bit of a problem.

It's easy to just pick the No. 1 seeds, and chances are, it's going to be right. In the history of March Madness, 40.5 percent of the teams that reached the Final Four were the top seed. But that doesn't always mean they are the best bet. Chances are, everyone will have a few No. 1 seeds, and if you're placing wagers on individual picks, the odds for No. 1 seeds to go far are likely to be lower.

The Sporting News is taking a look at the best bets to reach the Final Four. We're weighing the odds for all the teams in the field, and comparing it with our projection model to evaluate the teams that should be the best bets to reach the Final Four, including some sleeper picks.

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Which teams are the best bets to advance to the Final Four? Here's what you need to know.

Final Four predictions for March Madness

Odds courtesy of BetMGM

East Region odds, best bets

The East region is wide open. Five teams have odds below +1000, and no team has odds better than +250, with top-seeded Purdue leading the way.

This region features two of college basketball's blue blood programs in Duke and Kentucky that will be difficult to count out even seeded as low as they are at No. 5 and 6, and Tom Izzo's Michigan State squad went from a bubble team to No. 7. Ed Cooley's Providence squad makes for an intriguing team at +3500, the best odds for any 11 seed or lower to reach the Final Four.

EXPERT PICKS: DeCourcy (Alabama) | Bender (Kansas) | Fagan (Marquette) | Pohnl (Kansas)

While Purdue might be the favorite based on the odds, The Sporting News' model has the Boilermakers as only the second-most likely team to emerge from this region at 20.9 percent. The top spot belongs to No. 4 Tennessee with a 24.3 percent chance to reach the Final Four, despite having to deal with Duke in a potential second-round matchup.

Midwest Region odds, best bets

This region appears to play out nearly as the seeding would suggest, in large part because of the two powerhouses at the. Houston is BetMGM's national champion favorite, and Texas is the third-most likely No. 2 seed.

While the top three are in order, Texas A&M at the No. 7 seed is a noteworthy pick at +1200 despite potentially having to play Texas in the second round. Penn State is one of the hottest teams in college basketball despite losing to Purdue by a basket in the Big Ten Championship, and could be another sleeper out of the No. 10 seed with +3000 odds to reach the Final Four.

MORE: Print your 2023 March Madness bracket here

As would be expected, TSN's model has the outlook of this region as very similar to the bookmakers. Houston has a 39.9 percent chance to emerge and Texas is at 20 percent. No other team reaches double-digits. 

South Region odds, best bets

Alabama has staked itself out as the clear team to beat in this region at +190. But after that, this region gets to be filled with teams that could enter the picture.

Arizona and Baylor are neck-and-neck at +500 and +550 behind the Crimson Tide, but it's No. 6 Creighton that has the fourth-best odds at +800 and No. 5 San Diego State at +875. West Virginia, despite entering at No. 9, has decent odds to reach the Final Four at +1800, which is by far the best for any team in that spot.

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The model also labels Alabama as the clear favorite at 34.6 percent to advance to the Final Four and keeps the top three the same with Arizona and Baylor coming in at 17.6 and 10.7 percent, respectively. No. 10 Utah State comes in ahead of both No. 7 Missouri and No. 8 Maryland at 3.7 percent, while West Virginia again has good value at 4.3 percent to win, seventh-best in the region.

West Region odds, best bets

Like with the Midwest region, the West is clearly top-heavy with four teams at +500 or better and no other team below +1000. Still, the West is the only region in which the No. 1 seed is favored to come out of it, with No. 2 UCLA's +300 odds coming in just ahead of No. 1 Kansas at +350.

Gonzaga and Connecticut have the best odds of any teams in their respective seedings — Connecticut  is tied with Tennessee at +500. Looking for a sleeper pick here? There might not be one. Kansas, UCLA and Gonzaga have each been in the Final Four over the past two years, and Dan Hurley has UConn basketball back up to the level it played at under Kevin Ollie when it last won a title.

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The model also has UCLA as the favorite to come out of this region at 28.2 percent, but Gonzaga comes in at second at 16.8 percent. Kansas is third at 16.5 percent and Connecticut is fourth at 15.9 percent. The only team seeded in the lower half of the region to reach the upper half in Final Four odds was No. 9 Illinois, which finished just ahead of No. 7 Northwestern at 2.9 percent to 1.9 percent for eighth.