Since its inception at the Winter Meetings in 2022, the Tampa Bay Rays have been a part of the draft lottery process twice, including this year’s. After missing the postseason for two consecutive seasons for the first time since 2018, the Rays were granted a chance at a lottery pick for the second year in a row. They selected 14th overall in the 2025 draft, but as fate has it, the Rays now own the second overall pick in the upcoming MLB draft.
After finishing 77-85 in 2025, the Rays were given a 3.03% chance to land the first overall pick, the seventh-best odds. Luck certainly fell in their favor as they moved up to second, giving them more reason to make sure they take advantage of this opportunity.
It is the first time since 2017 when they selected fourth overall that the Rays are drafting within the top five. It is the highest they’ve picked since they had the first overall pick in back-to-back seasons in 2007 and 2008.
Although the Rays are now in a position just about every big league organization would love to be in, they won’t have an easy decision to make. As it stands now, UCLA’s Roch Cholowsky is the clear-cut favorite to be the first overall pick to the White Sox. If that doesn’t change, the White Sox are the team with the easy job. In recent drafts, it has been the team with the first overall pick having to make the tough decision, making it easier for the team with the next pick to make their selection.
Knowing Cholowsky is nearly a lock to be off the board come their turn to pick on July 11 in Philadelphia, the Rays will have a handful of players to sift through before making their decision. With how the draft lottery works, it’s not as often that teams get the chance to pick this high, so it’s even more important now that they get the pick right.
The Rays will have a large talent pool to select from with the second overall pick
The highest ranked draft prospect behind Roch Cholowsky on a number of different outlets is Grady Emerson, a left-handed hitting shortstop from Fort Worth Christian High School in Texas. Emerson checks a lot of the boxes that the Rays have looked for in their recent first-round picks, so it would make sense that they like Emerson in this spot.
However, because it has been a while since the Rays have drafted this high, they could approach this selection in a completely different manner. They have typically targeted multi-tool high school position players, but could pivot to a high-level college bat with a chance to move fast through their system after seeing the success of recent college position players drafted near the top of previous drafts.
In that case, Drew Burress of Georgia Tech, Justin Lebron of Alabama, and AJ Gracia of Virginia are a few players that should be in the mix to land here with the Rays. At the moment, there are about 10-12 players that have a case as the next best option behind Cholowsky, and those numbers could grow throughout the draft cycle. With that being said, the Rays have a lot of work to do in order to make the best decision possible.