For the second straight offseason, Nolan Arenado is in the middle of the rumors. Last winter, he was the player most likely to be traded. When he nixed a deal to the Houston Astros, everyone thought it would be just a matter of time.
Unfortunately for the St. Louis Cardinals, the eight-time All-Star has become the main problem. The 34-year-old is suddenly at the center of MLB chatter again, but this time, industry voices are openly wondering if it's time for the Cardinals to just cut ties.
On Sunday’s edition of MLB Network Radio’s “The Front Office,” former general manager Jim Bowden was blunt about it.
“I love Arenado, I love the person, but it’s over,” Bowden said, citing a three-year slide that has left both the production and the contract out of sync.
Co-host Jim Duquette added that opposing teams now know St. Louis needs to move on and that many clubs prefer to wait the Cardinals out rather than trade assets to acquire him.
Arenado is 34 and still owed $32 million by the Cardinals over the next two seasons. That does not include the money the Colorado Rockies are still paying him. He declined his opt-out after the 2022 season, locking in a contract that once looked team-friendly but now sits as one of the toughest long-term deals on St. Louis’s books.
His decline on the field has been steady.
After posting MVP-caliber numbers in 2022, Arenado slipped to a league-average bat in 2023 and 2024. His 2025 line —.237/.289/.377 with 12 home runs and a.666 OPS in 107 games — marked his weakest full season as a big leaguer. Statcast signs point to some real problems. His 2025 average exit velocity fell to 86.8 mph, his hard-hit rate hovered near 32 percent and his barrel rate dipped under 4 percent. That’s not a slump; that’s aging curve reality.
Injuries haven’t helped.
Shoulder trouble and recurring back soreness limited him in both 2024 and 2025, and the power never returned to its Colorado or early-St-Louis levels. Evaluators now see an average regular with declining impact, not the perennial All-Star who defined the position for a decade.
For new head of baseball operations, Chaim Bloom — who has already moved Sonny Gray as part of a broader reset — Arenado’s contract presents both a roster and payroll bottleneck. The Cardinals have cut spending dramatically heading into 2026, but Arenado still represents one of their heaviest financial obligations. Bloom has to get younger players into the lineup, and Bowden says he cannot allow Arenado to be a roadblock.
“You can’t let him take away at-bats from younger players,” Bowden said.
With a full no-trade clause and minimal market leverage, St. Louis may just be better off eating the contract and moving on. That frees Arenado to sign as a free agent without the baggage of his contract. Duquette, however, said he expects the Cardinals to give Arenado a chance in spring training. If production continues to trend down in the spring, the franchise may eventually reach a point where cutting ties becomes the cleanest path forward.
