There are a few pitchers set to hit the open market after the 2025 season, and none might be more coveted than San Diego Padres starter Dylan Cease. With plenty of interest, it's no surprise that Dennis Lin of The Athletic painted a bleak picture of his potential to come back to San Diego in the offseason.
"Cease is a Scott Boras client, and every team could use him," wrote Lin. "In other words, he's almost certainly gone."
It's a simple view of the cease-fire extension talks, but it's an accurate representation. Boras is well-known to be stingy with his players, getting the open market and landing the best deal possible.
For Cease, the Padres might not be his forever home, and he might be looking to go elsewhere in the offseason. Based on Lin's report, it seems that this scenario is the most likely outcome to come in the 2025/2026 free agent period.
Cease is in his second season with the Padres and is in the final year of his current deal, where he's making $13.75 million. The 29-year-old is set to hit free agency for the first time, and based on his career thus far, it wouldn't be a surprise for him to aim for a large extension.
But, even though he's expected to depart the Padres in the offseason, Cease might not land the big-money deal he's hoping for. That's in part due to his struggles this season in San Diego.
Cease, in 17 starts, has a 4.53 ERA and a 3-7 record. Across his 91.1 innings pitched, he's struck out 117 batters and walked 36. While his strikeout-to-walk ratio is solid, his ERA isn't great. That difference is further emphasized with his FIP being 3.23, significantly below his ERA.
What this means is that either the Padres' defense is hurting Cease whenever he's on the mound, or he's just getting very unlucky. Regardless, his advanced metrics are still strong, and most teams will overlook his rough ERA with how great he's looked in his career thus far.
Lin's prediction is simple: he doesn't see the Padres bringing Cease back. The combination of Cease being a free agent for the first time and Boras being his agent makes a re-signing of Cease incredibly unlikely.