The Philadelphia Phillies' magic number to clinch a first-round bye is down to two. Any combination of two Phillies wins and two losses from the Los Angeles Dodgers secures a first-round bye for the Phillies.
Regardless of whether the team makes the NLDS right away or struggles and loses the bye, the Phillies are likely going to go with an all-left-handed pitcher rotation this October. Cristopher Sanchez, Jesus Luzardo, and Ranger Suarez will make the starts for the Phillies in the first round of the postseason this October.
This leaves Aaron Nola, Walker Buehler, and Taijuan Walker without a spot in the rotation through the NLDS. And as Matt Gelb of The Athletic pointed out, the Phillies would be making a bold and risky decision with Nola if they go with the expected lefty trio.
Aaron Nola is set to do something he's never done before
With the postseason right around the corner, the Phillies will only get one more look at Nola before October begins, as he's slated to face the Minnesota Twins on the second-to-last day of the regular season.
Barring a major change, the Phillies won't have Nola in the rotation, as Luzardo, Sanchez, and Suarez will earn the starts in the Wild Card (if necessary) and the NLDS this season. Instead, Nola will have a new role.
"The club will likely carry Aaron Nola, Walker Buehler, and Taijuan Walker as relievers in the National League Division Series." Gelb writes.
Nola has been pitching for the Phillies since the 2015 season, where he made 13 starts with a 3.59 ERA in a solid rookie year. He then put together a remarkable 2018 season, in which he had 9.7 WAR and had a 2.37 ERA in 34 starts for the Phillies that season.
This season, he's made 16 starts with a 6.46 ERA after struggling to begin the year and missing a large chunk of the season with a rib issue. Now, he's back in the rotation and is set to make his 17th start of the year before his 2025 regular season comes to a close.
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Across the last 11 years, Nola has pitched in 284 regular-season and 10 postseason games for the Phillies. All 294 of those appearances have been as a starting pitcher. Not once, in his 11 years in the Majors, has Nola ever pitched out of the bullpen.
It's a big risk to take, but with no clear spot for him in the rotation during the NLDS, the only place to hold him on the roster is in the bullpen. Zack Wheeler has come out of the bullpen in the postseason for the Phillies before, and Nola will take on that role this October.
Suarez also closed out the 2022 San Diego Padres in the NLCS, while Zach Eflin was also used as a reliever in the 2022 postseason. Having Nola on the roster is better than some of the other bullpen options, but it's still a risky move to use Nola in a role he has no Major League experience with.
The Phillies might not even need Nola in the NLDS, but it's still something to monitor if the Phillies get there. He's a traditional starting pitcher, but with the trio of lefties being so dominant this season, and with Nola's struggles, it wasn't a difficult decision to make.
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