The Philadelphia Phillies clinched a first-round bye and will now welcome the Los Angeles Dodgers to Philadelphia for the NLDS after their Wild Card series win over the Cincinnati Reds.
It's a tough matchup for the Phillies, as the Dodgers are World Series favorites and are coming off a strong series against the Reds. However, the Phillies do have the chance to take advantage of one key weakness of the Dodgers.
As Eno Sarris, Matt Gelb, and Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic highlight, the Dodgers' biggest weakness is their bullpen. For the Phillies, the plan to take advantage of such a weakness is clear: wear out the starters and get to the bullpen.
Phillies hitters need to get to the Dodgers' bullpen in the NLDS
Los Angeles watched their team easily beat the Reds, but there were some major concerns with the bullpen in both wins. Cincinnati threatened both nights as the Dodgers' bullpen struggled to keep runners off the basepaths.
This issue is something that the Phillies will look to take advantage of, and to do so, they'll need to channel their inner Bryson Stott this NLDS.
Stott has a knack for taking a lot of pitches, as he's one of the most patient and tricky hitters to get out. According to Fox Sports MLB, Stott ranks behind only Mike Trout and Marcell Ozuna in pitches seen per plate appearance, with Stott seeing 4.40 pitches every time he steps to the plate.
If the Phillies can go up to the plate and see more pitches while still producing solid offense, then it'd be a recipe for disaster for the Dodgers. Getting to the Los Angeles bullpen is key every game, and if the Phillies can get their quicker, their chances to win only increase.
For the Dodgers, their bullpen has been a major cause of concern all year. Tanner Scott, who signed a huge $72 million contract in free agency to come to Los Angeles, has struggled, blowing saves frequently this season.
Emmett Sheehan, a starter turned reliever for the playoffs, struggled in his new role in the Wild Card round. Alex Vesia allowed two runs in the first game of the Wild Card, while Blake Treinen had some rough outings to close out the year.
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Other than those relievers, the rest of the bullpen is full of unknowns. Anthony Banda, Jack Dryer, and the other relievers have all had shaky moments in recent weeks.
The only reliever to be wary of is Japanese superstar Roki Sasaki. He began the year as a starter, but saw his velocity significantly dip, even during his rehab outings, forcing him into a smaller role. But he's rediscovered his velocity and command, making him the de facto closer for the Dodgers now.
Clayton Kershaw might also come out of the bullpen, but his postseason history doesn't instill confidence, despite his reputation as one of the greatest regular-season pitchers ever.
If the Phillies can get to the bullpen early, their chances of winning the NLDS increase dramatically. The Dodgers' starters are strong, so this task isn't an easy one. They'll be tested right from the get-go, facing Shohei Ohtani in his postseason pitching debut.
This will be one of the most interesting postseason series this October, as the Phillies-Dodgers NLDS winner will likely be viewed as the team to beat, regardless of who wins the series.
The Phillies' best path to success will be getting to the Dodgers' bullpen as quickly as possible. They have the hitters to do so, and with the Phillies being among the best late-inning offenses in baseball, their chances to find success against the Dodgers' bullpen look strong.
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