Shohei Ohtani contract projection: How star could set MLB record with $550-$600 million free-agency deal

Every year, there is a new name that is the best batter in the free agency. There's always a best pitcher. And there's some stars whose marketability makes them a big financial boon for any that sign him.

Shohei Ohtani checks all three boxes — when healthy. Though he won't be pitching at all in 2024, Ohtani's talents make him an incomparable free agent. There aren't any previous contracts that can be used as precedent setting. On top of all that, his camp has been notoriously quiet, so until pen is put to paper, it's unlikely many will know exactly what — or with whom — he is seeking to sign.

There is a strong chance Ohtani winds up signing at this year's winter meetings, which could set off a chain reaction across the league. The team that signs him will be making a heavy investment in the star phenom, and that should have an impact both on how much more that team can spend as well as how the runners up for Ohtani will choose to target after missing out on the sport's biggest stars.

What could Ohtani's contract wind up looking like? Here's a look at the reports on what could make sense for the two-way phenom.

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Shohei Ohtani contract projection

There are many unknowns about Ohtani. Some have speculated his deal could be a one-year contract as he waits for his pitching arm to heal so he can head into free agency again and sign a larger deal as a healthy pitcher. Others have speculated opt-outs in a large deal.

While the language and specifics aren't known on what a deal for him could look like, there is at least some clarity starting to build on the length and dollar amount for the contract. ESPN's Jeff Passan reported the contract given to Ohtani is expected to be a larger, multi-year deal that is said to be at least $550 million and could reach $600 million.

Addressing the concerns his arm health might have on his market, Passan reported any other player might have had issues signing the massive deal. But Ohtani's two-way talents and his international star power make him "an all-time free agent" and "transcend the sort of uncertainty that would waylay anyone else's free agency."

But what would that mean in terms of contract length? Ohtani is certainly not going to sign a deal that has him below anyone in terms of average annual value. Currently, Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer are tied for that distinction with an AAV of $43.3 million. Aaron Judge's AAV of $40 million is the highest for a position player.

The longest contract in MLB history is the 14-year deal signed to Padres star Fernando Tatis Jr. However, he was only 22 years old when he inked the deal. Ohtani is 29, and will turn 30 in July. The longest contract signed to a player 29 or older is a three-way tie between Manny Machado (30), Trea Turner (29) and Xander Bogaerts (30), which is 11 years.

Here's how the AAV (in millions) would shake up based on contract lengths:

All of those AAVs would set the record and make him the highest-paid player in the sport by average annual value and contract size. Given his age, it would certainly seem unlikely any team would give him a deal that signs him for as long as Tatis.

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Shohei Ohtani contract timeline

Passan reported Ohtani's timeline is "barreling toward the finish line," and it has been widely expected he will be the star of the winter meetings show. That would mean signing within the next few days.

And that is not the first time it's been reported Ohtani will have things wrapped up by Dec. 6. The New York Post's Jon Heyman had reported on Nov. 29 the "prevailing opinion" across the league is that he will sign during the winter meetings, and MLB.com's Mark Feinsand had also reported he believed Ohtani would ink a deal during the winter meetings, per MLB.com.

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