Aaron Judge vs. Cal Raleigh: The key stats you need to know in 2025 AL MVP debate

Many Yankees fans still argue Aaron Judge was robbed of the AL MVP award in 2017, when it went to José Altuve. With Judge a perennial contender since, another debate was bound to surface.

In 2025, it came in the form of a head-to-head race with Mariners catcher Cal Raleigh. The showdown sparked endless arguments about batting average, home runs and just how much value a catcher can bring.

For a while, Judge appeared to be pulling away as Raleigh slumped at the plate in August. But a red-hot September from the “Big Dumper” reignited the conversation, making him the favorite in the eyes of some voters.

Whether Judge or Raleigh ultimately takes home the hardware, the debate could linger well beyond the announcement. Of course, both stars would rather cap their season with a World Series ring than an MVP trophy.

Here are the key numbers from the AL MVP race between Judge and Raleigh.

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Aaron Judge vs. Cal Raleigh: Hitting stats 

Judge leads Raleigh decisively in batting average, OPS and OPS+, while Raleigh leads Judge in home runs and RBI. Judge holds a slight lead in fWAR, which is used to try to capture a player's total value.

MORE: What Cal Raleigh said after Mariners won AL West

Aaron Judge vs. Cal Raleigh: Defensive metrics

The tricky part of the MVP debate is finding the best way to capture Raleigh's defensive value as a catcher. More goes into being a catcher than just blocking pitches. Pitch framing, pitch calling and managing a pitching staff are all jobs a catcher has to do, and Raleigh's ability to do those jobs well is a major reason why so many have thrown their support behind him.

Raleigh was the AL's Platinum Glove winner in 2024, but the conversation about his defensive impact should note that he hasn't been as dominant behind the plate in 2025. Raleigh only ranks in the 11th percentile in blocks above average, according to Baseball Savant, though he is in the 73rd percentile for caught stealing above average and 93rd for pitch framing. All of those marks are down from 2024, though none by a significant margin.

Simple enough, right? But the MVP debate can’t stop at the numbers. Judge and Raleigh don’t play the same position, and many argue metrics alone can’t capture the full value of managing a pitching staff across 162 games.

Judge has long been a strong defensive outfielder, with Baseball Savant rating him above average in range, arm value and arm strength. His case took a hit in late July when an elbow injury forced him out of the outfield. While he eventually returned, his throwing was limited, and he wound up spending more than a third of the season as a designated hitter.

Raleigh’s defensive value is harder to overlook. Even if the metrics rate him and Judge similarly in some areas, the demands of catching tilt the comparison in Raleigh’s favor. The question is whether that defensive edge is enough to make up the gap in offensive production.

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Aaron Judge vs. Cal Raleigh: Career stats

There’s no real comparison between Judge and Raleigh when it comes to career accomplishments, but that’s no slight to Raleigh. He was just breaking in as a full-time catcher when Judge was already in his sixth season and winning his first MVP award.

Judge is on a Hall of Fame trajectory as a two-time MVP with a possible third on the horizon. Despite not becoming an everyday player until age 25, he has piled up 366 home runs and more than 60 career fWAR — a benchmark many consider Hall-worthy. His career OPS also sits comfortably north of 1.000.

Raleigh, meanwhile, is still carving out his résumé. His career OPS stands at .800 and climbing as his power numbers spike. He boosted his career home run total from 93 to 153 in just one season, and he has a chance to keep climbing the all-time leaderboard at a position not often associated with power.

MORE: Most home runs by a catcher in one season

Aaron Judge vs. Cal Raleigh: Who's better?

From an offensive standpoint, it's hard to make the case Judge doesn't have a pretty decisive advantage. No, that doesn't mean batting average is everything.

While Judge batting about 80 points higher than Raleigh isn't something to gloss over, it's just one number of many that point to Judge. Judge has an OPS well north of 1.110, in the range of 180 points higher than Raleigh. Judge's OPS+ is well north of 200. Since 2005, an OPS+ of 200 or higher has been recorded in a 162-game season only three times: Judge in 2022, Judge in 2024 and Judge in 2025. 

Raleigh's case is straightforward: he hasn't been as well-rounded as Judge offensively, but he is a strong defensive catcher with 60 home runs on a team that won its division for the first time in 24 years. The 60 mark has only been reached by four players not credibly accused of using steroids: Raleigh, Babe Ruth, Roger Maris and Judge in 2022. 

For those who use WAR as the barometer for a player's value, Judge still leads Raleigh, although the margin isn't significant by Fangraphs' estimation. Some in favor of Raleigh argue WAR can capture some of a catcher's defensive impact but not his full value managing a pitching staff all season along. 

The verdict: Judge seems to have had the more valuable season, but there are different ways to make a case for Raleigh that could allow the Mariners catcher to win out in the end.