Tatsuya Imai’s deal with the Astros should not be read as evidence of a thin market. It should be read as the market finally moving.
Houston’s agreement with Imai reset expectations for this phase of the offseason. The Astros did not chase length or certainty. They built flexibility into the deal, paid for upside, and acted decisively once the fit made sense. That structure now puts pressure on the rest of the market to move.
Teams like the New York Mets and San Francisco Giants still searching for rotation help are looking at a free-agent board that remains deep but increasingly segmented.
At the top, Framber Valdez headlines the group after declining a qualifying offer, bringing both frontline production and draft-pick considerations into play. Ranger Suarez fits a similar profile, offering left-handed reliability with the same qualifying-offer complications. Zac Gallen sits near that tier as a pivot point, with clubs weighing recent volatility against his longer track record.
Behind that group is where the market movement should accelerate.
These are pitchers who can still start meaningful games but are no longer chasing long-term guarantees. Nick Martinez and Chris Bassitt profile as stabilizers. Zack Littell represents a workload bet for teams that believe last season marked a real step forward. Erick Fedde fits the upside play for clubs willing to trust recent performance over past perception.
Then there is the name that always bends a market.
Justin Verlander remains available, and age aside, contenders still view him as a shortcut to credibility. One decision there could create a chain reaction for teams that have been waiting for clarity.
Beyond that sits the volume tier. Nestor Cortes, Lucas Giolito, Michael Lorenzen, Jose Quintana, Aaron Civale, Tyler Anderson, Frankie Montas, Marcus Stroman, Jordan Montgomery, John Means, Alex Cobb and German Marquez remain on the board, each carrying a different mix of innings, health risk and role definition.
Imai’s deal showed that creativity still matters. Now the market has a blueprint, and the next wave of signings should follow quickly.
