Are the Minnesota Twins about to set the pitching trade market next week?
On paper, Minnesota could walk into the Winter Meetings with two of the most attractive arms on the board in Joe Ryan and Pablo Lopez. The question is whether their messy ownership picture and foggy payroll push them from “listening” to actually dealing one of them.
ESPN ranked both pitchers as top trade targets with a 50% chance of getting traded.
The Pohlad family just pulled back from a potential $1.7 billion sale, choosing instead to add limited partners while keeping control, all against the backdrop of more than $400 million in debt, a $30 million payroll cut and local reporting that the front office still doesn’t have a clear long-term budget That is exactly the environment where controllable pitching can become currency.
Ryan just put up a true No. 2 season: 13–10, 3.42 ERA, 171 innings, 194 strikeouts, 1.04 WHIP and roughly 4.5 WAR in 2025. His fastball still plays thanks to a low release and carry, and Statcast sees a.290 wOBA and.289 xwOBA against, even with a double-digit barrel rate that leaves some home run risk baked in.
Financially, he’s a dream for buyers: he made $3 million in 2025 and is projected in the $5–6 million range for 2026 with two more arbitration years before free agency, according to Spotrac. That’s exactly the profile that lets Minnesota ask for at least one premium position-player headliner.
Lopez is the higher-risk, higher-certainty play. Shoulder and hamstring issues limited him to 14 starts, but he still delivered a 2.74 ERA, 75⅔ innings, 73 strikeouts and a 1.11 WHIP, worth about 2.1 WAR. His Statcast page still looks like a top-end starter: hard-hit rate in the mid-30s, average exit velocity under 89 mph, and a fastball/change/sinker mix that continues to miss barrels.
According to Spotrac, he has two more seasons at $21.75 million per year on his extension. For a win-now club that misses out on Tarik Skubal or Freddy Peralta, he’s the cleanest pivot.
Put together, Ryan and Lopez give the Twins two different doors: trade the cheaper, healthier, long-control arm for a franchise-changing haul, or move the more expensive, slightly dented veteran for multiple pieces while keeping an ace in-house.
Most logical landing spots for Ryan include the Red Sox, Mets, Orioles, Rangers, Giants and Astros. The Mets, Orioles, Giants, Astros and Padres for Lopez.
If Minnesota arrives in Orlando ready to do business, the entire pitching market resets around whatever they decide these two are worth.
