The expectations are enormous. Kyle Tucker is a tremendous young talent with left-handed power that is predicted to age well. He is hitting the free-agent market with expectations of a mega-contract in the $400 to $500 million range, according to industry projections.
But that’s not the only cost. The team that wins the Kyle Tucker sweepstakes is going to be paying in terms of a draft pick and international pool money because the Chicago Cubs slapped the $22.025 million Qualifying Offer on Tucker this week.
Under the Collective Bargaining Agreement, penalties scale to the signing club’s financial tier. Competitive Balance Tax payors, which include the Yankees, Dodgers, Mets, and Phillies, forfeit their second- and fifth-highest draft picks and $1 million from their international bonus pool to sign a qualified free agent. If they sign multiple players who rejected a QO, the team then also forfeits its third and sixth highest picks.
That’s a steep price.
Teams in the middle, the non-revenue-sharing clubs that didn’t pay CBT, teams like the Giants, Cardinals, Cubs, Braves, Angels, Nationals, and White Sox would lose their second-highest pick and $500,000 of international pool space. Manageable, but not painless.
The lightest penalties land on revenue-sharing recipients like the Orioles, Mariners, Guardians, Rays, and Tigers. They give up only their third-highest pick to sign a qualified free agent. That matters: if Tucker’s market turns into a years-vs-AAV tug of war, these clubs can lean on a softer draft penalty to sweeten the guarantee without swallowing the same pick trauma as the luxury-tax powers.
There’s a flip side for Chicago.
If Tucker walks, the Cubs, a non-revenue-sharing, non-CBT club, would pocket a compensatory pick between Competitive Balance Round B and the start of the third round in 2026. That’s not franchise-altering, but it’s real capital being reinvested in the system.
It also subtly tightens Tucker’s market. Fewer teams are able or eager to pay the “double tax.”
So who’s really in?
The CBT monsters like the Dodgers and Mets can still muscle up, but they’ll pre-decide whether losing two picks plus $1M is worth it before bidding gets loud. Revenue-sharing risers like the Orioles or Mariners own a structural edge if they’re willing to go long-term. And the “middle” tier can play spoiler if they decide the second-rounder is a fair toll for a prime-age, top-order lefty bat.
The QO isn’t going to be a weight around Tucker's neck in free agency, like it will be for players without his talent and background, but it’s an annoyance. His next team pays once in dollars and once in picks. The only question now is which front office is comfortable signing the check and tearing up the draft card.
