How can the Astros make the playoffs? Breaking down every scenario entering the final weekend

Douglas Santo

•
How can the Astros make the playoffs? Breaking down every scenario entering the final weekend image

The Houston Astros led the American League West for almost the entire second half of the MLB season. However, after sweeping the Texas Rangers, Houston was swept by the Seattle Mariners and lost two out of three to the Oakland Athletics to put itself on the outside of the playoff picture looking in.

Entering the final weekend of the regular season, the Astros sit one game out of the final AL wild card spot, but don't hold a tie-breaker with any of the teams above them, which basically makes them two games out.

The Astros have nearly played themselves out of the 2025 postseason, but not entirely, yet. There's still a chance for Houston.

How Can The Astros Make The Playoffs?

The Astros sit one game behind the Detroit Tigers and Cleveland Guardians, and two games behind the Boston Red Sox. Either the Guardians or Tigers will win the AL Central, and the other will be battling the Astros and Red Sox for the final wild card spots.

Here's a breakdown of what needs to happen in the final weekend for Houston to make the playoffs.

1. Astros finish 3-0, Tigers finish 1-2, Guardians finish 1-2 - Astros, Guardians are in.

2. Astros finish 3-0, Tigers finish 2-1, Guardians finish 1-2 - Astros, Tigers are in.

3. Astros finish 3-0, Red Sox finish 0-3 - Astros are in, regardless of Tigers and Guardians' outcomes.

4. Astros finish 2-1, Guardians finish 0-3, Astros are in, regardless of Tigers and Red Sox's outcomes.

5. Astros finish 2-1, Tigers finish 0-3 - Astros are in, regardless of Guardians and Red Sox's outcomes.

The Astros will face the Los Angeles Angels, and if they lose two games, they are eliminated. Houston is 6-4 against the Angels so far this season.

To put it as simple as possible, if the Astros win all three games, they need the Guardians or Tigers to lose two games, or the Red Sox to lose all three games. If the Astros win only two of the three games this weekend, they need either the Guardians or Tigers to be swept.

According to Fangraphs, the Astros have a 28 percent chance to make the playoffs.

If Houston fails to make the playoffs, it'll be the first time in nine years the Astros won't be in the postseason, breaking an eight-year streak.

Douglas Santo

Douglas Santo is a freelance writer with The Sporting News. As a senior at Arizona State University, he will complete his B.A. in sports journalism with a minor in business in December 2025. Before his time with Sporting News, Douglas covered the NFL and MLB for Athlon Sports and contributed as a digital reporter for Arizona PBS/Cronkite News. He is also the head of Sun Devil Daily, managing all content produced about Arizona State Sports.