The Houston Astros' starting rotation is led by Hunter Brown and Framber Valdez. Both are incredible starters, and while Brown is around for more than just 2025, Valdez is a free agent after the 2025 season.
R.J. Anderson of CBS Sports made a lofty contract extension prediction for Valdez and the Astros, which could be tricky for Houston to meet.
"Valdez likely took notice of the eight-year, $218 million pact Max Fried signed last winter with the New York Yankees." Anderson writes.
Even if Valdez looked at Fried's huge $218 million contract as the guideline for his contract, there's a bit of a difference between the two, as Anderson mentioned.
"If you compare the two over the three years heading into their free agencies, then you'll learn that Fried posted the better ERA+ and strikeout-to-walk ratio, but that Valdez provided more innings pitched." Anderson wrote.
The difference between the two isn't massive, but Valdez has pitched more in his build-up to the extension year than Fried did. However, that doesn't necessarily mean it's enough to warrant such a huge deal.
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A team might be concerned about the wear and tear on his throwing arm and shoulder. Such concerns could drop his value and make his $27 million per-year goal out of reach.
But, those concerns might be overblown, as rarely does a left-handed starter with as much talent as Valdez become available. Houston could lose him in the offseason, especially with teams becoming more desperate for starting pitching in today's game.
The 31-year-old will be 32 at the start of his next deal. This season, he has a 2.97 ERA in 23 starts with a 139 ERA+, the best of his big-league career in seasons with at least ten starts.
Valdez will likely see a solid market in the offseason, but he might find trouble reaching Fried $218 million deal, and fall short of $27 million per year. But, he will still likely fetch a strong contract, even if it's not his ideal outcome.
The longtime Astros starter is hitting free agency, and with his performance so far in 2025, the Astros will have some competition to keep him. He's also looking for a huge deal, something that Houston might pass on, especially with their deep pitching staff.
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