Tarik Skubal is the decision point of Detroit’s winter. The 2024 AL Cy Young winner is the kind of lefty you extend and build around—or, if negotiations stall, the kind of arm who warps the entire market the second the phone lines open. Mike Axisa’s bold-predictions piece puts star contracts and reshuffled contenders on the table this offseason; Skubal is one of the names with the power to tilt plans league-wide.
The recent reporting explains why this isn’t simple. The New York Post outlined a massive gap between the Tigers and Skubal’s camp, noting Detroit’s previous offer sat below four years and $80 million—a number that made waves precisely because of how far it sits from the modern ace economy.
Meanwhile, the bar for this service-time class moved up last spring when Boston locked in Garrett Crochet for six years and $170 million, a record for a pitcher in the 4-plus year arena. That’s a cleaner comp for Skubal’s side than any four-year bridge.
Axisa predicts Detroit pushes for an extension that looks like a true top-of-market commitment, with Crochet’s framework as the starting point, with Skubal’s Cy Young leverage and cleaner track record nudging the total value north. That’s the competitive-window play: protect your ace, stabilize a rotation that already has Jack Flaherty opting in for 2026, and signal that the window’s open right now.
If negotiations don’t accelerate, outside clubs will test Detroit’s resolve and tempt the Tigers to trade Skubal. You’ve already seen the speculative lists, which include prospect pieces that align with blue-chip fits if a trade were to become real.
Here’s why the extension forecast still wins out.
Detroit’s arc is shifting from “hope to contend” to “sustain contention.” Trading the reigning Cy Young winner in that phase usually requires an overpay of historic proportions in prospects and MLB pieces. But that still leaves the Tigers trying to replace 180 elite innings in a market where those innings cost nine figures. If ownership signs off on an ace-level check, the Tigers keep their identity, protect their bullpen, and buy cost certainty through the heart of Skubal’s prime.
If there’s no deal by mid-winter, however, the chatter ramps up, and front offices will float “just in case” offers. But Detroit’s best version of 2026 and the clearest message to a fan base that has been waiting for this starts with Skubal atop the depth chart on a contract that resembles what aces receive in 2025.
This is by far the most hopeful prediction Tigers fans have gotten this winter. With Scott Boras as his agent, the assumption was that there was no chance that Skubal would stay. There have been instances where Boras has worked out an extension, however, and this could be the biggest one of his career.
