The Baltimore Orioles didn’t trade for Shane Baz because he’s safe.
They traded for him because the data still says he could be special.
That distinction matters, especially given that Baltimore sent multiple prospects to Tampa Bay and a Competitive Balance Round A pick to get him. This was a calculated bet that Baz’s underlying profile still points to a higher ceiling than his surface numbers suggest.
On paper, Baz comes with obvious questions. Injuries have interrupted his development. His availability has been inconsistent. His traditional stats have fluctuated. That’s the risk Tampa Bay was willing to move on from.
Baltimore focused on the indicators that haven’t gone away.
Even after elbow surgery and a stop-and-start path back, Baz’s velocity has fully returned, with his four-seam fastball consistently sitting in the 96–98 mph range. That alone separates him from most reclamation arms. More importantly, the pitch still misses bats. His strikeout rate has remained comfortably above league average, and his fastball and breaking ball combination continues to generate strong whiff rates.
Statcast data also paints a kinder picture than his ERA. Baz’s expected metrics have regularly outperformed his actual results, suggesting that when contact is made, it isn’t consistently damaging. His chase rate remains solid, and his ability to get swings outside the zone hasn’t disappeared with the injuries. In other words, the pitch quality is still there, even if the outcomes haven’t always followed.
That’s the profile Baltimore is betting on.
Baz is being acquired as a pitcher whose inputs still look like those of a high-end starter, even if the innings and consistency haven’t lined up yet. For analytically driven teams, that’s the sweet spot, where risk creates opportunity.
The Orioles are no longer content to wait for every answer to arrive internally. They went out and signed right-handed slugger Pete Alonso to boost their lineup, and now adding a pitcher with Baz’s upside is a way to raise the ceiling without committing to a long, expensive free-agent deal.
Tampa Bay, even under new management, predictably chose the opposite path.
They turned risk into volume, depth, a draft asset and a lower payroll. That’s their model.
Baz doesn’t need to become an ace overnight for this trade to work. If the health holds, the payoff is obvious. Pitchers with Baz’s velocity, swing-and-miss profile, and age rarely become available.
The Orioles understood that going in. This was a deal that is a risk, but the data says the upside is still real, and because their window is open right now.
