Alek Manoah’s story has been a wild one. He made his MLB debut in the Bronx and struck out seven as he dominated the New York Yankees. The sky was the limit for the big, bold pitcher with nasty stuff and a big personality.
Now, however, the former Cy Young finalist and 2022 All-Star is sitting on the roster bubble with the Atlanta Braves, who acquired him in a change-of-scenery move that hasn’t clarified much. After two uneven seasons, a pair of demotions, and persistent questions about health and mechanics, Manoah is suddenly one of the most recognizable names in danger of being cut loose before Friday night.
The Braves didn’t invest heavily in him, and his projected $2.2 million arbitration salary isn’t prohibitive, but Atlanta is tightening its 40-man spots to pursue pitching upgrades.
Manoah just hasn’t shown enough to lock down a rotation job or a long-relief role. The Braves could tender him and explore a trade later this winter, but a clean non-tender remains possible, something that would have been unthinkable two years ago.
Since his 2022 breakout, Manoah has regressed across every core pitching metric. His strikeout rate, which sat in the 22–23% range during his All-Star season, dropped to roughly 17–18% in the years that followed, while his walk rate climbed from 6% to well over 10%. FanGraphs shows meaningful erosion in his strike-throwing ability: his zone rate dipped, and his first-pitch strike percentage fell by nearly eight points. Statcast trends point to a similar decline in raw stuff. Opponents’ hard-hit rate against him jumped from the mid-30s to over 45%, and his barrel rate nearly doubled. His four-seam fastball, which opponents slugged under.400 in 2022, has been hit far harder since, with slugging numbers pushing into the.550–.600 range. His slider, once his out pitch, also lost bite as its whiff rate dropped by more than 10 points, and hitters lifted it more consistently. The result is a profile with fewer whiffs, more traffic, and louder contact.
If Atlanta walks away, interest won’t be slow.
Several teams still believe there’s value in the frame, the ground-ball potential, and the history of attacking hitters with power fastballs. A non-tender would make him a free agent at 27, and clubs that miss early-market starters could view him as a buy-low rebound candidate.
Friday will determine whether the Braves still see another gear — or whether one of the winter’s most surprising non-tender decisions is about to hit the wire.
