The No. 1 pick in a fantasy football draft typically cements itself sometime in the months before teams are picked.
The consensus has gathered around Cincinnati Bengals wide receiver Ja'Marr Chase for the honors in 2025 leagues, though he's not unanimous. Atlanta Falcons running back Bijan Robinson has gained steam as an alternative the past few months.
How difficult is the decision for the top pick in 2025 fantasy football drafts? Read on to see whether it should be Chase, Robinson -- or another name as the first fantasy draft kit sticker taken.
What defines an ideal No. 1 fantasy football pick?
We could just as easily say "the person you think will score the most points," but that would in all likelihood be a quarterback. In normal fantasy leagues, you're not picking a QB No. 1 overall.
The No. 1 pick must possess a combination comprising at least four of these attributes:
- History of elite fantasy production or generational rookie prospect
- Continued elite opportunity and role
- Offense that will elevate his weekly floor
- First-round production floor in this year's outlook
- First-round foundation that has an even higher ceiling
- Game pace outlook that elevates the player's expected production pace
The No. 1 pick is considered risky because you have no safety net in value if you botch it.
PPR RANKINGS: Top 300 Cheat Sheet | QB | RB | WR | TE | DST | PK
Ja'Marr Chase's case for No. 1 fantasy draft pick 2025
First off ... let's address whether you can have upside on a 17-touchdown season. Well, that total likely will regress.
It's difficult not to regress after 2024, when Chase won the receiving triple crown by leading the NFL in receptions, receiving yards, and receiving touchdowns.
Not enough? He also paced the NFL in total targets, red zone targets, and yards after the catch.
The LSU alum has averaged 10.3 targets per game in 2024 (second in the NFL) after just 9.1 in 2023 (12th), but his metrics all put the puzzle together to be the undisputed No. 1 wideout in the NFL:
The WR1 last year and likely this year: Ja'Marr Chase pic.twitter.com/dWjqbbt1j8
— xEP Analytics (@xepanalytics) August 20, 2025
The Bengals' defense is already being pegged as one of the worst in recent memory, even if they do come to contract terms with last year's sacks leader Trey Hendrickson.
Plus, having Joe Burrow as his quarterback ranks Chase well above his fellow alpha wideouts. Oddly enough, the consensus top four slingers group of Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, Jayden Daniels, and Jalen Hurts do not have a QB stack partner at Chase's level.
Bijan Robinson's case for No. 1 fantasy draft pick 2025
The 23-year-old found his footing after Zac Robinson replaced fantasy's public enemy No. 1 Arthur Smith as offensive coordinator, therefore allowing Atlanta to finally use Robinson as a star bell cow.
Through the first five weeks of the season, Robinson averaged just 17 touches per game -- hardly befitting a top fantasy back.
From Weeks 6-18, however, that workload increased to 23.4, a 38% jump. Over that span, he produced 120.9 scrimmage yards per game and ranked as the RB1 in fantasy points per game.
A running back who has also averaged 59.5 catches in each of his first two seasons does plenty through the passing game to supplement any ground work. This workload justifies consideration atop draft boards in any year.
Unlike with Chase, fantasy managers can more logically argue Robinson could reach an even higher level of production.
2025 DRAFT SLEEPERS: QB | RB | WR | TE | DST | Deep Sleepers | 1 From Each Team
More fantasy picks to consider at No. 1 overall
Jahmyr Gibbs
Our closest competitor besides Chase and Robinson -- and if you're competing in a lot of leagues and want to go against the grain (e.g. an Underdog best ball league), this contrarian pick could be a great way to zag while thousands of other competitors zig.
Gibbs has posted top-end fantasy RB1 numbers even while sharing backfield work with David Montgomery, thanks to their defined roles.
In the sense of statistical upside that would befit a no-doubt No. 1 overall, however, Gibbs may need a level of RB reception involvement that approaches Christian McCaffrey's record-setting 116 catches from 2019 (or even his old record of 107 the year before).
He's "only" had 52 in each of his past two years, so his role would have to change.
However, new offensive coordinator John Morton could help:
There have been reports all July of John Morton having Jahmyr Gibbs working with the wide receivers.
— Zareh Kantzabedian (@ZKantzFF) August 3, 2025
I recorded an episode of Beyond the Rankings yesterday, and this was the first topic I discussed.
Based on historic top RB slot usage, there’s a lot of room for Gibbs’ slot… pic.twitter.com/yiRR8myqpZ
Plus, that 16-touchdown total from last year is ripe for regression, though he should still reach double digits across rushing and receiving anyway.
2025 Fantasy Auction Values (PPR/Non-PPR): Overall | QB | RB | WR | TE | DEF/ST | K
Saquon Barkley
If Barkley hadn't logged a historic 2024 in terms of touches, he likely would've been the consensus choice.
But given the 28-year-old's outlandish efficiency on top of his eye-popping workload, fantasy players are scurrying away in favor of projecting another historic season from a wide receiver.
He remains a sound pick in the back end of Round 1 that leaves his investors more easily able to recoup any injury or downturn.
CeeDee Lamb? Justin Jefferson? A different wide receiver?
The biggest discussion Lamb and Jefferson should be in is who should be taken first among the two of them in the early part of Round 1.
But there's little reason to think they would line up for volume anywhere close to Chase, given the rapport with Burrow, Cincinnati's likely pass-happy game scripts nearly every game due to a woeful defense.
Anyone else shouldn't be given expectations out of the gate to put up No. 1 overall, so if you're thinking of stretching for someone like Malik Nabers, it's better to lock him in later in Round 1 if you can choose your draft spot, then double-up with another top RB or WR.
Verdict: Who is the best No. 1 pick in 2025 fantasy football drafts?
Ja'Marr Chase in PPR
For starters, repeating historic volume and output is less of a concern for a 25-year-old alpha wide receiver than a 28-year-old running back (Barkley) and even a 23-year-old running back (Robinson).
That repeat is much easier when you have Joe Burrow throwing to you, too, to maximize an already elite PPR floor.
This favors safety over buzz.
Bijan Robinson in Half-PPR or Non-PPR
Robinson gets the advantage, however, outside of full-PPR leagues, where running backs are naturally bumped up.
Who's No. 1 in superflex leagues?
As the top-ranked quarterback, Josh Allen should go No. 1 in most default superflex and 2QB formats.
See more in our report on who's the best fantasy quarterback for 2025.
Should I choose to pick first in my fantasy draft (if I can)?
If you're getting to choose your pick slot this year, No. 3 is an ideal candidate.
That way you can scoop up Chase, Robinson, or Gibbs based on the whims of the managers in the first two picks. Nice security blanket.
Picks toward the Round 1-Round 2 turn also could prove valuable, as shown from 2023 data:
Want to know what draft position won the most championships last year? Here you go 🤝
— Sleeper (@SleeperHQ) August 21, 2024
10 team: 2, 10, 3, 1, 9, 6, 4, 5, 8, 7
12 team: 12, 11, 10, 2, 3, 9, 8, 6, 7, 5, 1, 4
READ MORE: What is the best fantasy draft slot for 2025 leagues?