It's a tale as old as time: fantasy managers drafting players based on their name or playoff success rather than their value and recent regular-season statistical production. We saw it for years with Tom Brady, and now we see it with current QBs like the Kansas City Chiefs' Patrick Mahomes.
The big question the Sporting News' fantasy football analyst team has been asked a number of times this year? Should I draft Patrick Mahomes or Joe Burrow?
Actually, let's throw Jalen Hurts in there, too. All three sit in a pretty similar ADP range, but one serves as the obvious choice for us.
Let's dive into which of these three top-tier quarterbacks makes for the best fantasy football selection ahead of your 2025 league drafts.
DOMINATE YOUR DRAFT: Fantasy Football Draft Kit 2025
Should I draft Joe Burrow in 2025 fantasy leagues?
Volume is going to be Burrow's friend, especially if the Cincinnati Bengals defense turns out to be as porous as predicted.
Analysts know not to blame Burrow for most of his team's struggles. He finished fourth in MVP voting on a 9-8 team last year (his defense did him zero favors all season), leading QBs in passing yards (4,918) and passing touchdowns (43) while throwing only nine interceptions.
Perhaps even more encouraging than that last paragraph? Burrow will start the 2025 NFL season healthy, after completing the first fully-healthy offseason and training camp of his five-year career. And everyone in Bengals camp seems to be talking about his presence and leadership.
That includes nearly consensus 2025 No. 1 fantasy draft pick Ja'Marr Chase and stud WR2 Tee Higgins, both of whom Joe has helped land the proverbial bag from Cincinnati brass. It also includes 2024 breakout running back Chase Brown, who should continue to make Burrow's life easier with elite pass-catching out of the backfield.
MORE: 2025 fantasy QB rankings | Who's the best 2025 fantasy football quarterback?
Should I draft Jalen Hurts in 2025 fantasy leagues?
It's understandable to consider taking Hurts over the other two QBs, given his rushing yardage and touchdown volume on an elite offense.
It almost feels like there's no wrong move there. However, even with some Saquon Barkley negative regression and Hurts positive regression, it's tough to justify opting for the Eagles QB as No. 3 behind Allen and LJax.
Hurts is coming off a campaign with 32 total TDs (18 passing, 14 rushing) — Burrow had 45 total! His reliance on the Tush Push is a stronger impact on his stats than any consistent downfield-passing presence.
That profile is dangerous for strong investors, especially in league scoring systems with 6-point passing TD rewards, where Hurts dips far behind even many names typically below him in ADP.
READ: 2025 Fantasy QB sleepers to draft
Should I draft Patrick Mahomes in 2025 fantasy leagues?
Speaking of disappointing, let's get to Mahomes.
Kansas City starts the season with a brutal onslaught of opposing defenses. Rashee Rice will more than likely be suspended at some point.
Travis Kelce has lost a step or maybe both steps. The Chiefs have the 20th-ranked offensive line in the NFL, according to Pro Football Focus.
Mahomes finished last season as the QB11, totaling just 28 regular-season TDs. He finished the campaign with 4,235 all-purpose yards.
Few will argue against Mahomes belonging on the 21st-century QB Mount Rushmore — but arguing that he's as valuable a fantasy asset as Burrow in 2025 is like arguing LeBron James is as valuable as Nikola Jokic.
Don't expect much stat-padding from Mahomes.
The Chiefs' focus last year seemed to be on winning games without overexerting their future Hall-of-Fame QB. In fact, Kansas City won a lot of games despite Mahomes, not because of him.
The three-time Super Bowl MVP finished last season with 87 poor passes (fifth-most in the NFL) and a 6.24-yard average depth of target. That's a far cry from the 9.1-yard ADOT he put up in his fantasy breakout campaign seven years ago.
The best is behind Mahomes, even if the Chiefs remain contenders.
EXPLOIT LEAGUE APPS: Yahoo, ESPN rankings can reveal sleepers, busts
Fantasy football tip: Draft Burrow, Hurts, or Mahomes?
We're not even going to sugar-coat this one: Joe Burrow should be far-and-away the No. 1 QB out of these three on your big board.
In fact, only two players in all of fantasy belong above Joe Cool on the QB projections: two-time MVP and reigning fantasy football points leader Lamar Jackson and reigning MVP Josh Allen.
The best might still be ahead of Burrow, who won't turn 29 until December and yields +650 odds to win MVP on DraftKings.
Those odds trail only Jackson and Allen (both +550), with falls right in line with what we've been saying this whole article.
If you can stack Burrow and Ja'Marr Chase, enjoy your success.
If you're relying on 2024 Super Bowl QBs Hurts and Mahomes, good luck.
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