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Naoya Inoue vs. Alan Picasso betting tips: Ring V predictions, odds and best bets as Nakatani superfight looms

Dom Farrell

Naoya Inoue vs. Alan Picasso betting tips: Ring V predictions, odds and best bets as Nakatani superfight looms image

Takuma Oikawa

The cream of Japanese boxing heads to Saudi Arabia for the December 27 card, Ring V: Night of the Samurai.

Topping the bill is pound-for-pound superstar Naoya Inoue, who is seeking to round off another banner year with victory over Alan Picasso, the latest challenger to his undisputed super-bantamweight crown.

Inoue has racked up victories over Ye Joon Kim, Ramon Cardenas and Murodjon Akhmadaliev in 2025, a superb level of activity for a fighter at the very elite end of the sport.

However, the Picasso bout is one taking place, in part, to set up a 2026 megafight.

Three-weight world champion Junto Nakatani steps up to his compatriot Inoue's weight division for the first time in the chief support, tackling fellow undefeated fighter Sebastian Hernandez.

If Nakatani and Inoue each come through unscathed as expected, a huge showdown at the Tokyo Dome is slated for May next year.

Such best-laid plans can be fraught with danger in boxing, and the third Japanese multi-weight world champion turning out in Riyadh is up in weight and looking to bounce back from defeat.

Below, we break down Kenshiro Teraji's challenge for Willibaldo Garcia's IBF super flyweight title, along with Inoue's latest defence of all the marbles at 122 lbs.

Naoya Inoue vs. Alan Picasso odds, betting trends, prediction

Per the FanDuel Sportsbook, Naoya Inoue is the -4500 favorite, while Alan Picasso is the +1600 underdog. 

  • Inoue via KO/TKO: -1100
  • Inoue via decision: +700
  • Picasso via KO/TKO: +1900
  • Picasso via decision: +5000
  • Draw: +3500

The short odds on a Naoya Inoue knockout are hard to ignore. He’s called ‘The Monster’ for a reason, and 27 of his 31 victories have come via the power punch.

Murodjon Akhmadaliev joined the select group of fighters who have heard the final bell against Inoue, but he did so by losing almost every round — a whole different kind of pain that probably isn’t worth it.

It is important to note that Inoue has carried his power up through the weight divisions, although it does not have quite the same effect as when he was habitually liquidising the likes of Jamie McDonnell and Nonito Donaire inside a couple of rounds at bantamweight.

At super-bantamweight, Inoue has been forced to chip away before delivering the destruction. Stephen Fulton and Ramon Cardenas each lasted eight rounds, Marlon Tapales went into the 10th, and Luis Nery succumbed in round six of a thrilling May 2024 firefight.

Both Nery and Cardenas put Inoue on the canvas, a further indication that the champion is approaching the outer limits of what his diminutive frame can endure. It can also be a source of encouragement for Picasso, although the Mexican’s knockout ratio of 53.13% highlights that he does not carry the same pop as Nery or Cardenas.

Picasso is a well-schooled boxer and could bring his height and reach advantage to bear early on. However, at this point, it’s not as if Inoue is unfamiliar with facing naturally bigger foes.

The challenge for Picasso will be to establish the jab and do so with enough variety and angles to keep Inoue at bay and secure some rounds. Nevertheless, the champ’s exquisite footwork, which gets him in prime position to unload bombs to the head and body, will probably contribute to Picasso unravelling around the halfway point of the scheduled 12 rounds.

Prediction: Inoue via TKO

Amanda Westcott/SHOWTIME:

Willibaldo Garcia vs. Kenshiro Teraji odds, betting trends, prediction

FanDuel Sportsbook, has challenger Kenshiro Teraji as the -600 favourite, with champion Willibaldo Garcia priced +360

  • Garcia via KO/TKO: +900
  • Garcia via decision: +550
  • Teraji via KO/TKO: +165
  • Teraji via decision: +100
  • Draw: +1500

For better or worse, unless you manage to stick Floyd Mayweather's mid-career switch from 'Pretty Boy Floyd' to 'Money', boxers are stuck with their nicknames for the long haul. At 33, it's tempting to wonder how attached Kenshiro Teraji (25-2, 16 KOs) still is to 'The Amazing Boy'. 

A win against Willibaldo Garcia (23-6-2, 13 KOs) would arguably make this the most memorable of a decorated 11 years in the pros.

For the first time since his shock stoppage loss to Masamichi Yabuki in September 2021, Teraji is coming in off a defeat. He responded emphatically on that occasion with a third-round KO to reclaim the WBO light flyweight title in an immediate rematch.

Boiling down to the lower weights has appeared to take something out of a phenomenal fighting machine. Teraji stepped up to fly and won the vacant WBC belt with an 11th-round stoppage of Cristofer Rosales last October.

In March, he took part in a fight-of-the-year contender against WBA champion Seigo Yuri Akui, who he stopped in the final round when a point behind on two of the cards. It was a surprise to see Teraji have to go to the well in that fashion and he ran out of road when he lost his titles to Ricardo Sandoval in July.

The hope is that Teraji can be energised by the extra weight the 115-pound division allows. If he isn't, Garcia is primed to take advantage. The champion's pro record is deceptive, with four of his six defeats coming in the first six fights of his career in Mexico. He has not lost since dropping a split decision away from home in the UK against one-time Inoue foe Paul Butler in June 2021.

Garcia was pushed to the limit to win the title against compatriot Rene Calixto, winning via split decision in their May rematch after a split draw in their first encounter.

This certainly has the makings of another thriller involving Teraji. The ferocious combination puncher will not have to go looking for a come-forward and durable opponent. Garcia's nickname is 'Buscara', which translates as 'seeker'. Whether he finds a revitalised or diminished version of Teraji will decide the outcome of a fight where the older man's far greater experience operating at the highest level should prove decisive.

Prediction: Teraji via decision

News Correspondent